2024 UEFA Round of 16 Predictions

What a fun two weeks of football this June. The group stage provided a lot of information on who has the best chance to make a deep run and give teams headaches. While the eight teams eliminated put up a fight, the remaining 16 were better and deserved to advance to the second round. From here on out, there are no draws nor points given from ties. Every round will be elimination, meaning overtime and shootouts/penalty shots will decide winners. Before picks are made, the numbers are for who placed where in their assigned group. I should correct myself from last article: the best four teams in third place were also allowed to advance, not just the top two in each group. That means 16 teams were allowed to qualify, not 12.

Here are the predictions for which eight teams advance to the quarter finals.

2A Switzerland v. 2B Italy

The first of eight matches, both Switzerland and Italy looked ok in the group stage. The major factors in this matchup include Italy facing everyone’s best since they’re the reigning champions, and playing without star defender Riccardo Calafiori after he drew two yellow cards in group play. The Swiss were cautious in the first round and made sure to steal a point from every team in group A. Now that it’s elimination and Forza Italia looks vulnerable, don’t be surprised if Switzerland starts the second round with an upset.

Prediction: Switzerland wins 2-1

1A Germany v. 2C Denmark

A good number of readers wonder why Denmark, another team that stole at least one point from everyone they faced in group C isn’t given the same credit as Switzerland. A big reason is Germany looks stronger and played better in the first round. The Danes were mediocre and their older players looked exhausted in the second halves of their three matches. That’s a bad combination for any team wanting to get past Die Mannschaft. Germany will go full throttle without resting their stars. This could be over before the first half ends.

Prediction: Germany wins 4-1

1C England v. 3E Slovakia

Last article I wrote about the pressure on manager Gareth Southgate due to England being the runner-up team in the 2020/1 Euro championship. There was pressure to replicate that success, if not exceed expectations. I also added emphasis on getting more offense out of the current roster. That didn’t show at any point in the group stage. The Three Lions were booed by fans, criticized by the broadcasting crews calling their matches, and attacked constantly in the media for how awful the offense looks, Southgate’s adjustments (or lack thereof), and why midfielder Cole Palmer hasn’t played more.

Contrast the pressure England faces with the speedy and ambitious Slovakia that mesmerized in group E and there’s more than enough to worry about in Britain. Coach Francesco Calzona turned the Repre into one of the more fun and entertaining teams in round one. Slovakia does need to score more than one goal a match, but their defense led by goalkeeper Martin Dubravka is more than enough to tame the Three Lions for more than 90 minutes.

Upset prediction of the round: Slovakia wins in extra time 2-1

1B Spain v. 3F Georgia

Georgia pulled off the biggest upset in Euros history, shutting out Portugal 2-0 in the final match in group F. While Selecao das Quinas didn’t play all their starters, the passion and determination should put the remaining top teams on notice. Unfortunately for the Crusaders, Spain was the only undefeated team of round one. La Roja look unstoppable even when manager Luis de la Fuente didn’t play all the starters last match against Albania.

While de la Fuente said not all starters could play against Georgia, they’re not underestimating the former Soviet republic. Spain crushed the Crusaders twice in the past year, and that won’t change anytime soon.

Prediction: Spain wins 5-1

2D France v. 2E Belgium

The first of two matches that look good on paper but underwhelm on the pitch. Belgium continued their international tournament struggles with a loss to Slovakia and a scoreless draw against Ukraine in round one. Meanwhile France scored one goal in three matches (Austria’s own goal obviously doesn’t count), and that was a penalty shot from captain Kylian Mbappe. There’s been justified criticism with England’s dreadful performances, but not enough on Les Bleus for the underwhelming play against Netherlands and Poland.

France stumbling through group D aside, there’s not enough for Belgium to overcome. This is a bigger issue once extra time and penalty kicks are factored. The older Belgian roster had many chances to draw a better opponent but likely fizzle out. This should give Mbappe and Les Bleus the needed spark to score more than once.

Prediction: France wins in extra time 2-1

1F Portugal v. 3C Slovenia

Another lopsided matchup. Slovenia stole a point from every opponent in group C and now get the chance to face an angry Portugal coming off the worst upset in Euros history. The Slovenians struggled to score against some haggard rosters last round. Now they’ll face the scoring depth of Selecao das Quinas. Like Germany v. Denmark, this should be over before the second half.

Prediction: Portugal wins 4-0

1E Romania v. 3D Netherlands

The Dutch struggled to score after beating Poland 2-1. A dull draw against France and a terrible defensive performance against Austria has coach Ronald Koeman reassessing tactics. Netherlands decided to play a friendly against the German Suddeutsche Zeitung last Wednesday to fix some of the offensive issues. Koeman’s desperation for another player to step up besides forward Cody Gakpo is warranted since Romania wants to spoil the Oranje’s run.

Romania struggled against Belgium and would’ve lost to Slovakia if not for a questionable call by the referees last match. There’s not enough talent on the roster to stop the Dutch star players and that will show by the second half.

Prediction: Netherlands wins 3-0

1D Austria v. 2F Turkiye

There might not be a better second-tier team than Austria. Das Team humbled the Dutch, almost tied France and eliminated the Polish in an impressive first round. Drawing Turkiye interests many since the group F runner ups surprised even diehard viewers. Phenom forward Arda Guler has the spotlight on the Crescent Stars as the rising team to watch this decade.

While Turkiye has improved with Guler and coach Vincenzo Montella, Austria is the deeper and more experienced team ready to elevate their performances. This match should be a fun watch, but Das Team has everything in their favor to make the quarter finals.

Prediction: Austria wins 3-1

Group play predictions record: 10-4