NFL Week One Winners and Losers

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Except for the inevitable injury or two, the first week of the NFL regular season is typically mild. Not this week. It was anything but mild on Sunday. Week one is seen by some as a fluke week, while others see it as a prelude of what will come as teams settle in. Here are the winners and losers from Sunday’s games.

Winners: Aaron Glenn

New York has been terrible for a long time. The last time the Jets won a week one Sunday game was 2015 against Cleveland. A lot has changed since then.

After Sunday, Aaron Glenn finally has a winning record in the regular season. The Jets won a one-sided road game in Tennessee. They capitalized on the game’s first possession after Titans kicker Joey Slye kicked the ball out of bounds on the kickoff. Kenyon Sadiq’s three yard touchdown run put Tennessee in an early hole and let the Jets cruise to an easy win.

New York’s offense looked good. In Geno Smith’s second stint as starter with the team, he completed 19 of 24 passes for 215 yards and a 104 quarterback rating. Breece Hall had 22 carries for 102 yards and a touchdown. The offensive line dominated Tennessee’s defensive line.

On defense, the Jets sacked sophomore quarterback Cam Ward three times. While New York’s defense didn’t force a turnover, they suffocated the Titans offense. Tennessee had a total of 200 offensive yards and scored their lone touchdown when the game was decided late in the fourth quarter.

Last year was a miserable season for head coach Aaron Glenn. Despite some positives, management traded away valuable players and the team lost more confidence. Glenn needed a strong, opening week to show there has been progress since last season’s messes. He left no doubt about the positive changes Sunday.

Cincinnati Bengals defense

If Cincinnati is going to win the AFC North, the defense has to have to step up and improve in something. Well, the Bengals defense started the regular season with a solid performance against a talented Tampa Bay offense.

Cincinnati got their first lead of the game when defensive end Myles Murphy and linebacker Barrett Carter strip sacked Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield. Linebacker Demetrius Knight Jr. recovered the ball and ran for a 27 yard touchdown.

Tampa Bay never recovered and was in panic mode most of the game. Their next possession, runningback Bucky Irving fumbled a catch and new Bengals defensive end and former Super Bowl champion Boye Mafe recovered the ball. Cincinnati capitalized on offense with another touchdown, taking a double digit lead.

The Bengals didn’t let up in the second half. Despite Cincinnati’s offense giving up an interception return touchdown in the third quarter, the defense forced another turnover when Mafe strip sacked Mayfield and defensive tackle T.J. Slayton Jr. recovered the ball. The Bengals gave up a late touchdown when the game was all but won. While the Buccaneers have more issues to address, Cincinnati can build off the week one progress.

Carson Wentz

Once Kyler Murray was named starting quarterback in Minnesota, the main question became who would back Murray up if things went downhill. Head coach Kevin O’Connell picked Carson Wentz at the last second and thankfully bumped J.J. McCarthy and Max Brosmer to the practice squad. That decision looks genius after Wentz led the Vikings to a stunning, double digit home opening win against division rival Green Bay.

Carson Wentz played most of the game after Murray left during the first possession because of a concussion. Wentz completed 12 of 19 passes for 133 yards and three touchdowns. Two of his scores came after the Packers took a 12 point lead early in the third quarter.

Minnesota doesn’t need a Pro-Bowl caliber quarterback. They need someone who can get the ball to a fantastic receiving core, balance the run-pass game, and not make mistakes or turn the ball over. Carson Wentz took three sacks in a physical divisional game, but he didn’t turn the ball over or do anything that could harm the team. The long-time veteran needed some confidence after the constant lows suffered from previous seasons. This comeback win should make both Wentz and Minnesota interesting to watch the rest of September.

Philadelphia Eagles offense

There is a lot of pressure on Philadelphia’s offense to be better than they were last season. With A.J. Brown traded to New England (and now out for at least a month with an ankle injury), the Eagles offense needed a convincing performance and to not be a punching bag for both local and national sports media. Philadelphia will delay those conversations for at least another week.

The Eagles offense played well Sunday afternoon against division rival Washington. Quarterback Jalen Hurts completed 14 of 25 passes for 203 yards and three touchdowns. The receiving trio of Dallas Goedert, Dontayvion Wicks and Devonta Smith combined for nine catches for 203 yards and three touchdowns. Wicks and Smith had some great catches and plays near the sidelines that dazzled Commanders defenders.

What might be a relief and the most positive news was how great runningback Saquon Barkley looked. The former rushing champion had 15 rushes for 83 yards. While it wasn’t an all-time great performance, Barkley looked like the elite runner everyone remembered before 2025. If the Eagles get this version of Barkley moving ahead and the receiving core continues to play well, Philadelphia will be hard to beat.

Losers: Ian-Yates Cunningham

It will be agonizing to keep up with the NFC South division race most of this season. As was written in the 2026 NFC playoff picks, there is a lot to like for each of the four teams, but there is as much that will drag all four down the rest of the calendar year. Atlanta may have the fewest roster weaknesses, but they have the biggest one of any four teams: no quarterback. That issue goes up to the Falcons front office and general manager Ian-Yates Cunningham.

To re-cap the current quarterback issues, Atlanta let go of Kirk Cousins because they wanted Michael Penix Jr. to be the franchise starting quarterback. That’s a nice idea, but it turns out Penix can’t stay healthy. Then Cunningham went out and signed Tua Tagovailoa in free agency, brought in Cooper Rush as a third option and added undrafted rookie Jack Strand to the practice squad. Someone had to emerge as the de facto starter.

Turns out, the starter picked was Cooper Rush. Since this is the Falcons, it’s fitting Rush was also dealing with injuries before Sunday’s kickoff. Atlanta could have promoted the undrafted rookie Strand to start his first NFL game, but the Falcons fear that if Strand’s good, that would de-rail any chance of Michael Penix Jr./Tua Tagovailoa getting their chance to be franchise stars. While that sounds bizarre for readers not used to watching the NFL, both latter players were high, first round picks that have stood out over the last two years. Yet, neither can stay healthy. And that showed how not having a competent starting quarterback doomed any chance for Atlanta to play well.

Pittsburgh took advantage of that deficiency and won an ugly, low-scoring home game. Viewers who watched that mess all agreed Atlanta is a wreck and their lack of quarterback talent is going to doom any chance the team has of winning the division. Those issues start with management flailing about while adding any washed up, injury prone passer they could find.

Carolina Panthers defense

In many ways, Cincinnati and Carolina are in the same boat when it comes to their atrocious defenses. The Panthers had the worst defense in 2024 and things have barely improved since. While the Bengals added players in the offseason, they haven’t been hit with injuries yet. Carolina did in pre-season and in on-field practices, and it showed in a wild, shootout home loss against Chicago.

In the Panthers’ first game of the regular season, they gave up more than 500 yards of offense. The Bears scored 50+ points for the first time since 2012. Their 59 points were the most in an NFL season opener. Chicago’s six rushing touchdowns were the most in a season opener for the franchise and the first for a team since the 1922 Canton Bulldogs. Two runningbacks had 100+ yard performances. Carolina’s defense was a sieve start to finish.

Injuries may play a factor for how bad the Panthers defense could be for a few months this season, but no team should be giving up multiple NFL records on an opening day game. If Carolina’s defense is this bad in their next two games (Atlanta and Cleveland), we could witness the worst defense in league history.

C.J. Stroud IV

This website does a great job at objectivity when it comes to a player and team’s total play. It’s rare to find a player on here (not a kicker) be blamed for one or two specific plays and wind up right in the loser’s column. Houston quarterback C.J. Stroud IV unfortunately deserves to be here.

Believe it or not, Stroud had a good game against Buffalo. The Bills and Texans went blow for blow, and he stepped up almost every time. The key word here is almost. This is what has gotten C.J. Stroud a lot of deserved criticism: he cannot get the job done when it matters most. Houston’s last possession of the game was a great example.

Stroud’s last two plays before Buffalo won will be talked about all week, if not all month. A third down incompletion was thrown too hard and fast for number one receiver Nico Collins. His fourth down blunder stands out most. C.J. Stroud was about to be sacked by defensive end Greg Rousseau. However, Stroud fumbled the ball and Buffalo’s Terrell Bernard recovered it. The Bills ran out the clock and won.

Many will say Houston’s defense is another main reason Buffalo won. The Texans defense does not appear to be the same elite unit we watched last year. When Houston could have gone to the Super Bowl with that defense, Stroud played awful in a forgettable divisional round loss in New England. C.J. Stroud wants to get paid a lot of money in an upcoming contract extension. Houston general manager Nick Caserio and the front office won’t budge until Stroud proves he is worth the money. That final drive in a grueling week one loss is ammunition for Caserio’s case and a big reason why Stroud may not get that lavish extension.

Los Angeles Chargers

There were a few week one games many analysts believed would be easy decisions. Arizona versus Los Angeles was one of them. The Cardinals have one of the hardest schedules this season and were predicted to win three games max because of it. The Chargers are supposed to be a playoff team that can get to at least the divisional round. Neither team played like it Sunday.

Los Angeles didn’t just lose to Arizona. They were spanked start to finish. According to ESPN’s Adam Schefter, Cardinals rookie head coach Mike LaFleur became the first Arizona full-time coach to win his debut since Don Coryell in 1973. Many believed new offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel would make the Chargers one of the NFL’s best offenses each week. LaFleur’s Cardinals overwhelmed them on all but two possessions. Franchise star quarterback Justin Herbert threw a frantic interception and was sacked three times. Arizona’s defense rattled Herbert every chance they got and stifled what used to be a strong running game.

The Chargers defense kept the game close, but special teams were the key in Arizona pulling away for a double digit win. JK Scott’s punt was blocked by both Arizona and Los Angeles players. The Cardinals scored a touchdown two plays after, and the Chargers never scored again.

If Los Angeles wants to be a serious contender in both their division and conference, they must beat teams not favored to reach the playoffs. The Chargers have the talent, but they look disorganized or uncommitted to winning like several teams in the AFC are. Los Angeles will regret this loss the closer we get to January.

2026 NFC Playoff Picks

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The NFC didn’t just win two straight championships, they demolished their AFC opponents. Philadelphia crushed the AFC best Chiefs two years ago. At one point, they led 40-6 in their game. Then Seattle whooped New England. The Patriots didn’t score until the fourth quarter, and the Seahawks sacked regular season MVP candidate Drake Maye six times. Seattle lost three games last season by a total of nine points. Head coach Mike Macdonald became the eighth head coach in NFL history to win a Super Bowl in his first postseason appearance. The Seahawks and Eagles are the undoubted favorites in the NFC to go far in the playoffs this year.

However, the conference isn’t just a two team race. Many see the Los Angeles Rams as the Super Bowl representative this year. The entire NFC North will be up for grabs and at least one team won’t make the postseason. Dallas, Carolina and Tampa Bay are seen as playoff contenders. Every division race will be a slugfest and have a lot of drama.

Unfortunately, not all the teams mentioned above will make the playoffs since there are seven spots. It’s time to break down which seven teams in the conference have the best chance to reach the playoffs this season. There are a lot of quality teams, so expect a thrilling journey to the end of the season and some surprises based on this years draft and last years film.

NFC West: Seattle Seahawks, Los Angeles Rams

The reigning Super Bowl champion Seahawks brought most of last year’s roster back, including Leonard Williams (left, contract extension) and DeMarcus Lawrence (who announced this is his last season).

There is no doubt two teams make the playoffs in the NFC West. Unlike last season, there won’t be a three team race for first place. Arizona will be a bottom three team in the league and San Francisco’s long mess of a calendar year will continue. Seattle and Los Angeles are two of the three titans in the conference that eyes will lock onto and the NFL will push to the forefront. While both teams play each other twice in the last three weeks of the regular season, pressure will mount each month and both team philosophies will constantly clash in sports media.

East: Philadelphia Eagles, Dallas Cowboys

Head coach Nick Sirianni surprisingly has a lot of pressure on him to do well this season despite getting Philadelphia into the playoffs every year since his hiring and a Super Bowl championship. Despite the harsh criticisms, the offense and defense must play better this year.

Philadelphia is the other juggernaut in this conference and will be a favorite to advance past wild-card weekend. The Eagles traded receiver A.J. Brown after a drama-filled 2025-26 season, replaced their offensive and defensive coordinators, and revamped the offensive line. Better play-calling and play from the offense and secondary should erase speculation of how good head coach Nick Sirianni is at his job.

It is tempting to go with a more talked about team this offseason like New York or if Washington can climb back to where they left off two years ago, but neither seems favorable. The Giants still have a messy roster and the older, more decrepit unit the Commanders trot out won’t be enough to sniff the postseason. That leaves Dallas as a good wildcard pick.

Former Eagles defensive backs coach Christian Parker should have some success this year after Dallas’ defense set franchise and league worst records last season.

The Cowboys wound up surprising viewers last year after the offense and special teams dragged them to a sub-.500 record. Quarterback Dak Prescott was in MVP conversations for half the season and kicker Brandon Aubrey cemented himself as one of the league’s best kickers. The defense was dreadful, but more talent was added this offseason. Head coach Brian Schottenheimer has his players fully committed into practices and games. Though the offense and special teams might not be as stellar this season, the defense should improve and make sure there are some easier wins. That would be good enough to get Dallas back into the postseason.

South: New Orleans Saints

New Orleans is a playoff contender because of head coach Kellen Moore’s optimism and thoroughness.

Yet again, the NFC south will be awful. Do not be surprised if another sub-.500 team makes it out with a home game next wildcard weekend. The true headache is figuring out which team will win this division. All four teams have plenty of weaknesses, but some are too much to look past. Atlanta has no starting caliber quarterback to make a difference, which is a shame because the current roster would give many teams fits in the playoffs if any of the NFL’s top 20 quarterbacks were on the Falcons. Tampa Bay is already fractured because of last year’s dismal end to the regular season and a worse offseason. Carolina will be most analysts’ pick, but season ending injuries to most of their incoming draft class and defensive talent means this could be another year of dreadful play from the Panthers. There is one team that stands out though.

That would be New Orleans. Yes, the Saints are not fully stable at quarterback yet, but they play hard and are coached well. Kellen Moore made the most out of a terrible situation last year and New Orleans almost made the playoffs in the last two weeks of the regular season. Tyler Shough is a work in progress but proved to viewers he can win crucial games, especially in the division. That might be enough to squeak into the fourth conference seed if the defense and offensive talent around Shough keep improving.

NFC North: Minnesota Vikings, Chicago Bears

Kyler Murray (with ball) is back to full health and on a new, more competitive team. Thankfully, that means audiences don’t have to watch J.J. McCarthy or Max Brosmer anymore.

At first glance, the North seems the most competitive division in this conference. A closer look shows it’s a two team race. Green Bay is in serious trouble over the Micah Parsons trade and a regressing offense. Detroit’s defense is already banged up and a regular season game hasn’t been played yet. The Lions can’t beat teams by outscoring them with outrageous numbers every week. That leaves Minnesota and Chicago as the two competent teams.

The Vikings already have an elite defense thanks to coordinator Brian Flores. They also have a good special teams unit. What they needed was a quarterback who didn’t play blind, untalented or as the common civilian like J.J. McCarthy or Max Brosmer do. Minnesota signed Kyler Murray, Arizona’s former 2019 number one overall pick. Murray is debatably the best running/scrambling quarterback on an NFL roster. With Kyler Murray out of the west and with a more competent head coach in Kevin O’Connell, he could put up career best numbers this season. There is a lot of pressure on the Vikings to make a deep playoff run, and the players feel and want it. Minnesota could surprise many throughout the year.

Chicago’s Ben Johnson could have the last laugh on which teams face each other in the playoffs.

Then there is Chicago. The Bears had a whole lot of luck last season and were at least a DJ Moore catch away against Los Angeles from making the conference championship. A number of analysts believe the Bears will come back down to earth and have some regression. There are valid reasons: the pass rush and run defense look to be among the lower half of the league, and it doesn’t help that Chicago lost a good amount of talent in their secondary. Still, the offense should make progress and play consistently for all four quarters more than they did last season. Special teams and scheduling will be questioned each week. Since the Bears wound up first in the north last year, it will take a lot more skill to repeat as division champions. Chicago has more going for it than Green Bay and Detroit, and there isn’t another NFC team able to step up or close the gap even if the Bears are in a slump. A wildcard spot is just right in Johnson’s second season as head coach.

Total 2025-2026 regular and postseason NFC picks: 7-6

2026 AFC Playoff Picks

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The last two years have been tough for the American Football Conference. Despite more competition with Kansas City, the AFC is much weaker compared to the NFC. That weakness has led all 16 teams in this conference to re-think and approach roster construction differently. While the Chiefs, Bills, Ravens and Texans are favorites to reach the Super Bowl, at least a half dozen other teams are playoff hopefuls, and two plan to defend their conference championship appearance. Of the four divisions, the west is the strongest. Meanwhile, the other three divisions could have any team come up on top and no wild card team make the postseason.

As all 16 AFC teams prepare for another season, the conference must continue to address their management issues, roster construction/adjustments, and how to win another Super Bowl. It’s time to break down which seven teams in the AFC have the best chance of reaching the playoffs in 2027.

AFC North: Baltimore Ravens

A fully healthy Lamar Jackson (8) and new head coach with better game-planning makes Baltimore the easiest choice to win the north.

No team was sicker Seattle’s head coach Mike Macdonald won Super Bowl 60 last season than the Baltimore Ravens. Macdonald was the architect of an elite, shut-down defense before the Seahawks hired him (after letting go of their all-time winningest head coach Pete Carroll) in 2024 and the Ravens continued to support John Harbaugh. Owner Steve Bisciotti quickly fired Harbaugh and brought in the closest coach/person to Mike Macdonald they could find: Chargers defensive coordinator Jesse Minter. Minter was also on Baltimore’s staff when Macdonald ran the defense.

This season, Baltimore should return to what many were used to seeing from them before the last two seasons. Jesse Minter will have some rough patches, but the veteran, exceptionally talented roster will make his first year as a head coach smoother than what most first year hires will have. What helps Minter more now will be how the other three north teams won’t be much of a factor toward their division winning paths. Any positive gains Cleveland and Pittsburgh make on offense this season will be erased by their depleted or older defenses. Cincinnati is elite on offense and special teams, but they have no linebacker or secondary depth. That will be exposed as the season goes on and injuries become a factor.

East: Buffalo Bills, New England Patriots

Buffalo is taking a chance with their Super Bowl window after they hired a new, inexperienced head coach take over. Former head coach Sean McDermott got the Bills close to multiple championship appearances.

The east could be the hardest division to figure out in the conference this season. Yes, Buffalo and New England are the front runners to win the division. However, both teams could face a series of setbacks this season. While the Bills have a new head coach and more importantly, a season long experiment switching from a 4-3 defensive scheme to a 3-4 one, they are more poised to win the east.

Buffalo’s Joe Brady will have a lot to prove this season. Like New England, the Bills will have a rough first half to their schedule. One positive they have over the Patriots is the lack of off-field distractions. Buffalo also addressed their position needs in the offseason, adding receiver DJ Moore, linebacker Bradley Chubb, center Lloyd Cushenberry and safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson. The Bills could have a slow start, but watch out the closer we get to 2027.

A.J. Brown was the most coveted player by New England’s front office, coaching staff and…Diana Russini? What a season this will be for the Patriots.

While Buffalo will be scrutinized for their play, New England will be criticized and watched closely on and off the field. General manager Eliot Wolf had a great off-season, adding more talent at wide receiver with the signing of Romeo Doubs and trading for disgruntled Philadelphia star A.J. Brown. Wolf also bulked up the defense by signing turnover magnet safety Kevin Byard III and linebacker Dre’Mont Jones. In many ways, the Patriots have a better roster than they did last season.

Despite New England’s active offseason, they will have a rough time this year. The Diana Russini scandal that almost every major sports outlet, journalist and reporter tried to downplay and cover up in the offseason will be in front of every NFL fandoms’ mind, especially with fanbases of teams New England plays this year. Speaking of schedule, the Patriots one is just as vicious as Buffalo’s. New England may not have won the Super Bowl last season, but they still went to the championship round and won a conference championship. They have just as large a target on their back as Seattle, Los Angeles and Denver. This could be a great season for the Patriots, but it could also be a hellacious year that won’t ease up on or off the field. As Mike Vrabel could learn from his predecessor, sometimes less is more.

South: Houston Texans

Houston made a smart move this season extending defensive end Will Anderson Jr. He’s a reason the Texans have one of the NFL’s best defenses.

On paper, the South is the second best division in the AFC. On the field, there are both a lot of inexperience and question marks. Tennessee will have more growing pains on the offensive line, defense and special teams. Indianapolis has a decaying roster and Jacksonville will face regression on both offense and defense.

That means Houston is the de facto best team. The Texans beefed up depth on the offensive line and wide receiver after last year’s season ending injuries to Nico Collins and Dalton Schultz. On defense, Houston retains almost all their star playmakers in the secondary and even added more talent like former Philadelphia safety and defensive captain Reed Blankenship. Starting quarterback C.J. Stroud IV now has no excuses heading into his fourth season. If he plays poorly this year and the Texans don’t have a deep playoff run, Houston will look for another quarterback to compliment a Super Bowl worthy roster.

West: Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Chargers, Denver Broncos

Kansas City’s odds to return to the Super Bowl improved when they signed Super Bowl 60 MVP Kenneth Walker III in free agency.

Great news everybody! No prediction in the AFC West this year about every team making the playoffs! Las Vegas should have a bold and educational first season with Klint Kubiak as head coach, but the other three teams will capitalize on the Raiders’ early season mistakes to keep them at the bottom for now. The other three teams are serious contenders to at least make it to the divisional round.

Kansas City will again lead the way. Until head coach Andy Reid’s brain stops working, quarterback Patrick Mahomes II can’t throw a ball anymore or defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo forgets what a defense is, the Chiefs will remain the favorites to go all the way in the conference. Love it or hate it, that is how all 15 teams in the AFC see it every season. Mahomes back to full health is the deciding factor for which team takes the division.

Could this be the season six year veteran Justin Herbert finally wins a playoff game?

Kansas City will have two teams in the division nipping at their heels. Throughout most of the Reid-Mahomes era, Denver and Los Angeles have played them close, and this year will be no different. The Chargers look to at least be second best in the west with the addition of former head coach Mike McDaniel at offensive coordinator. Los Angeles should have one of the best offenses in the NFL…if they can get past a brutal seven game schedule that has them facing Buffalo, reigning Super Bowl champion Seattle, Denver, Kansas City, the Rams, Houston, and Baltimore. If the Chargers leave that seven game stretch over .500, they will coast into the playoffs.

Los Angeles could lose out on the division title because of the defense and special teams. New defensive coordinator Chris O’Leary has his hands full with an aging defense that features solid depth but no standout players outside of safety Derwin James Jr. and tackle Teair Tart. Jesse Minter made Los Angeles’ defense one of the more appreciated units in the NFL. O’Leary’s defense may not feature a lot of the same creativity and precision. As for the special teams, kicker Cameron Dicker had one of his best years last season. Those who have followed the NFL for a while are aware the Chargers have been plagued by special teams problems when everything else goes well and no one expects it. Given how great they were last year, a regression is likely.

Expect this look on Sean Payton’s face for a good part of the 2026-27 season!

It was hard to pick which NFL team would round out the top seven in this conference. Any of the south teams (after Houston) have a good case to be playoff bound. The Jets are a great dark horse pick, but they don’t have the talent to enter this conversation. That leaves Denver, which will be an interesting team to watch throughout the season.

Like New England, the Broncos will face more resistance just for playing in the conference championship. While Denver played an ugly game outside of their first score, they took out the Super Bowl favorite Bills and upended the franchise’s title aspirations with Sean McDermott as head coach. The Broncos will also face similar offensive issues much like they did last season with quarterback play. Inconsistent starter Bo Nix returns after he broke his leg earlier in January.

The biggest issue Denver could face is with play-calling. Offensive coordinator Davis Webb will call plays instead of head coach Sean Payton because Payton desperately wanted him to stay on staff. Sean Payton will have to give Webb a good amount of autonomy throughout the season since the promotion, but many wonder if that will be the case the longer the season goes and Denver plays to secure a high playoff seed, much less a playoff game. Expect a lot of Broncos drama this season, but enough determination from them to clinch one of the lower two wildcard seeds.

Total 2025-2026 regular and postseason AFC picks: 7-6

2026 North America World Cup Championship Final Prediction

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The semi-finals were some of the best FIFA matches anyone watched this tournament. There was almost a fight, some penalty shots, and upsets. It may be difficult for the championship final to live up to the same expectations. The two teams remaining are the best and most competitive ones we’ve seen this summer. As mentioned in the last FIFA article, there are no draws nor points given from ties. Every round is elimination, meaning overtime and shootouts/penalty shots will decide winners. Before picks are made, the numbers are for which teams finished at the top two in each group, and the letters are from the group each one was in. Here are the predictions for which team wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup trophy.

1H Spain v. 1J Argentina

This will be the match of a lifetime for Spain’s Lamine Yamal and Argentina’s Lionel Messi.

The two most talented, qualified and best teams reached the championship round. None of us should be surprised that the finalists are the most recent champions on their own continents. No team has an answer for Spain’s defense while no team can hold a lead against Argentina’s offense. Both teams have veteran, match-changing depth that can change a match at any time. It is possible the championship could be determined in extra time because of how well both teams mirror each other.

Both goal keepers have been exceptional this tournament. Unai Simón has given up one goal in seven matches while Emiliano Martinez slammed the door on most opposing offenses the last 25 minutes of regulation play. Both coaches have surprisingly built around their defenses first to ensure their forwards and midfielders have an easier time creating transition scoring chances. Their offenses can play better once the defense sets the tone early in each match.

Match deciding factor: Marc Cucurella and La Roja’s defense versus Lionel Messi and La Albiceleste’s offense

Argentina has fallen behind in every elimination match played this tournament. La Albiceleste has patiently waited to see what their opponents will do the first 70 minutes of regular time. Then they blitz the defense late in the second half and score. It will be no different with Spain. La Roja will probably be the first team to score given how they love to dominate time of possession, pass the ball and create open spacing for quality shot selections. Spain is also aware of how Argentina will play given the quality opponents they faced in elimination. La Roja jumped on France early, and they let Portugal dawdle for 85 minutes.

While one could argue that Lionel Scaloni versus Luis de la Fuente is the bigger matchup or deciding factor, many would agree that de la Fuente has run circles around Spain’s opponents this tournament while Scaloni’s squeaked by despite his accurate substitution decisions. This matchup will come down to how one of the best football stars of all-time will deal with this tournament’s best defender entering the prime of his career. Lionel Messi has been on another level this World Cup, which is saying something because he’s usually the best player on the pitch. His vision, passing and timing of when to score is why La Albiceleste made it this far. However, Marc Cucurella has blanked out and smothered every team’s top play-makers and star scorers. Austria, Portugal, Belgium and France are four top teams loaded with prolific names. Cucurella’s defensive play kept them all off the scoreboard and led Spain to a FIFA tournament record six shutouts.

Marc Cucurella isn’t Argentina’s only worry. Spain’s defense has gotten better each match to where Cucurella can focus on whichever elite player gets open. Pedro Porro and Marcus Llorente are great complimentary defenders while older midfielders Rodri and Fabian Ruiz help take some pressure off. Argentina’s offense will probably test them more than any European team did because of how crucial, talented and physical players like Enzo Fernandez, Julian Alvarez, Lautaro Martinez and Alexis Mac Allister are in contested spaces.

While Yamal and Messi will be the top players to watch in this championship, Rodri (16) and Enzo Martinez (24) will be decisive factors in which team wins.

Argentina will learn fast that taking their time against Spain is not a good idea because of how consistent and sharp-minded La Roja is. France could not get a shot on net until the 80th minute. La Albiceleste will also learn that starting the match with faster offensive pressing and scoring early is something Spain doesn’t allow. Argentina must get creative with their set-pieces, kicks, throw-ins or penalty shots. They must also use the whole pitch to their advantage against a team that stays locked in and doesn’t make easy mistakes.

Verdict: On paper, this looks like the match of the century. Two football giants that have consistently won on every level, on a collision course for dynasty conversations. Spain has become La Gran Máquina Roja after tweaking their famous Tiki-taka style of play. Argentina has been the football team of the 2020s. Yet, there is one more factor that could decide the winner: Accumulated yellow cards.

Valuable defensemen on both sides have a yellow card heading into this match. Spain’s Marc Cucurella and Argentina’s Lisandro Martinez and Cristian Romero all drew one in their semi-finals appearances. While many would think Cucurella would face more pressure here, it is actually the pair of Martinez and Romero who feel it more. La Albiceleste tried to intimidate England early and it backfired. It wasn’t until the Three Lions went into FIFA’s version of prevent defense that Argentina finally played their preferred offensive style and pull out a win. Not only is playing more physical a non-option for La Albiceleste when Spain is on offense, but La Roja will try and exploit that often and see if they can goad either into drawing another yellow and be up one man for a part of the final.

It is not just the defensemen either. Veteran mid-fielder Rodrigo de Paul also drew one against England. Argentina at least has quality midfielder depth if de Paul is substituted out earlier than usual, but Spain’s Luis de la Fuente will keep this in mind. In many ways, de la Fuente is FIFA’s version of Seattle’s Mike Macdonald: he gets the team to study and re-innovate tactics, has the players laser-focused on overwhelming their opponents, and is a proven winner on every level. It will take everything Argentina has to beat Spain. Even then, it might not be enough.

2026 North American World Cup championship prediction: Spain wins 4-2 and takes home their second FIFA World Cup Trophy

Golden Ball winner: Marc Cucurella

Golden Glove winner: Unai Simón

Quarterfinals prediction record: 4-0

Total 2026 World Cup prediction record: 30-6