The 2022 season was a success for the American Football Conference. From the close four team AFC East race to Cincinnati’s two straight north division titles for the first time this century, the biggest takeaway was the continued conference depth of playoff contenders. Half the divisions could have any team come out on top and no one would be surprised. The six teams that don’t win either division have a great chance to make the postseason this year. 2022 featured three solid Super Bowl contenders in both those divisions. Now it’s six. Reigning champion Kansas City has a lot of pressure to repeat their title run with a conference that’s improved every part of their roster. Last but not least, expect the same kind of playoff race both the Jaguars and Titans had in the south to heat up again, this time with a more balanced roster in Jacksonville and a more desperate team in Tennessee.
Due to the depth, it’s possible not every team listed below makes the playoffs, but it’s a sure thing the franchises listed have the best chance and present solid arguments. Time to break down which seven teams in the AFC have the best chance of reaching the playoffs for 2024.
AFC West: Kansas City Chiefs
Despite offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy going to the Washington Commanders, Kansas City still has the tandem of Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes II. It’s possible the Chiefs not just win the AFC West but also represent the division as the only playoff team in January. Las Vegas won’t be competitive past October. Denver again faces a plague of injuries before the regular season starts, and there’s no guarantee Russell Wilson or Sean Payton can turn things around. As for Los Angeles, the organization wasted an opportunity to shove out a coach who blew a 27 point lead to the Jacksonville Jaguars and hire a Super Bowl winning coach in Sean Payton. Then, they re-signed inexperienced postseason franchise quarterback Justin Herbert to a massive contract extension. The Chargers want to win now but won’t be able to with the poor decisions made by ownership and the front office.
Kansas City also has a drive to win back-to-back championships, something not done in the NFL since 2004. While defensive tackle Chris Jones continues to hold out, it might not matter until later in the season when the Chiefs lock up the AFC West division title.
AFC South: Jacksonville Jaguars
The Indianapolis Colts are a growing hot mess that will take years to fix. Houston has a chance of improving in every position despite how far behind they are in both the division and conference. Tennessee is still struggling with their offensive line’s health and there aren’t many receiving options for whoever is under center outside of an aging De’Andre Hopkins.
Like Kansas City, the Jaguars stand out in a division facing many questions in almost every position. Doug Pederson isn’t the coach Mike Vrabel is but he has better talent, depth and a higher ceiling for development to work with on all sides of the ball. Pederson and Jacksonville don’t have the added pressure of getting back to the conference championship compared to Vrabel and the Titans. Calvin Ridley returning after two years out of the league combined with expected growth in both offensive and defensive redzone plays make the Jaguars an easy pick.
AFC East: Miami Dolphins, New York Jets
Similar to last season, the east will be one of the most competitive divisions in the NFL. At least three of the four teams will stay close in the playoff race most of autumn. The longer the season goes, the more New England will sputter due to lack of depth on offense and rumors of Stefon Diggs leaving Buffalo (whether true or not) might amplify if Josh Allen’s inaccuracy continues after last year’s postseason. The Bills are more fragile and still lack a quality running game outside of Allen’s scrambles. This puts both Miami and New York in favorable positions.
Miami is the favorite to win the division for their offensive depth and smart offseason moves to revamp the defense. Adding Vic Fangio as defensive coordinator will tighten any leaks opponents exposed in 2022. Jalen Ramsey will solidify a top cornerback duo when he returns by November (right now most are saying six weeks, but the degree of injury could linger into December. Thus, November is a good timetable to see if and when he plays in the regular season). The Dolphins’ front seven, is highlighted by the linebacker quartet of Bradley Chubb, Jaelan Phillips, David Long Jr. and Jerome Baker. Two of the four weren’t on the roster a year ago. While left tackle Terron Armstead will return sometime this month, the offensive line is still a top concern after what happened to quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s health last year. Miami must balance the offensive passing and running games to keep their top play makers healthy. Expect Dolphins management to trade for a star runningback by midseason if Salvon Ahmed, Raheem Mostert or rookie Davon Achane aren’t consistently productive.
New York should return to the postseason for the first time in 13 years. The last time they reached the playoffs, quarterback Aaron Rodgers won the Super Bowl with the Packers. Now Rodgers bolsters the Jets offense and helps everyone raise expectations and performances. Head coach Robert Saleh did a masterful job building up the defense and added the right pieces to the team just before Rodgers was traded. New receivers Mecole Hardman Jr., Randall Cobb, Allen Lazard and running back Dalvin Cook will give opposing defenses fits.
Staying consistent from previous years (and in multiple sports) make it too risky to rank the Jets at the top of the division and even the conference. Valid questions about the offensive line’s health (especially the tackles) arise. This is also the second Packers quarterback New York traded for once Green Bay moved on. When Rodgers’ predecessor Brett Favre was traded in 2008, the Jets started as one of the best teams before a rapid November spiral ended their season at .500. Due to an 18 week regular season change, New York will probably finish one game over .500. Their schedule hints this could be a similar run. We’ll find out by early December if Rodgers has the almost identical season Favre did.
AFC North: Cleveland Browns, Cincinnati Bengals, Pittsburgh Steelers
The east won’t be the only competitive division in the AFC. The north may not have a clear leader until December. Baltimore might be the first team out of contention due to regression by coaching the last three years and injuries plaguing the roster. Lamar Jackson won the contract battle with the organization but his health is a valid concern on how far the Ravens go this season. Last but not least, New England learned in 2020 you don’t sign and slap together former first round rejects at wide receiver and call it progress. Nelson Agholor was one of the rejects Baltimore signed this offseason who didn’t pan out well in Boston.
Prior assessment might confuse readers as to why Cleveland is the division winning pick. First, the defense will show improvement. Jim Schwartz was hired to fix the pass defense while maintaining an aggressive scheme for the front seven. This will make a difference at middle linebacker, which has been a blah unit of play the last few years. Za’Darius Smith lining up opposite Myles Garrett will give opposing offenses in or outside the division problems. The added pass rush and better linebacker play gives the secondary extra time to cover holes receivers may find.
On offense there are no excuses for DeShaun Watson. Last season his play was mediocre due to off-field issues and not spending needed time with teammates. Cleveland’s front office has gradually let Watson know they’re all in from not re-signing runningbacks Kareem Hunt and D’Ernest Johnson to adding Marquise Goodwin in free agency. How the Browns fare early against their schedule will show analysts how good they are and can consistently be. Three of their first four games are against division rivals before an early bye week. Late September should be filled with talk about DeShaun Watson returning to the play many remember from his time in Houston.
On to Cincinnati. The Bengals have gone to a Super Bowl and two straight conference championships, meaning there’s a target on their backs this and next season. The north is harder and deeper at a lot of positions, and while the Bengals are still one of the best teams in the league, it may become more stressful to stay on top as their rivals play them harder.
While Cincinnati doesn’t have as hard a start to the season as some other teams, they won’t have many weekends to disengage. Many viewers don’t understand the constant mental focus can wear down teams especially after two long postseason runs. The offensive line is better but the defense is filled with question marks on the front seven. Opponents in Pittsburgh, San Francisco and Cleveland have offensive lines that dominate play. There’s enough film on quarterback Joe Burrow and who he favors throwing to the past few years, so the Bengals have to switch schemes and create new plays the deeper they venture into the season.
The Steelers are similar to this year’s Detroit Lions. Many expect a more dangerous team led by a coach who can lead well and not accept excuses. Pittsburgh has been one of the worst teams to watch the past two years but it seems coach Mike Tomlin has figured out how to improve the nagging problems on offense. It starts with better quarterback play and the continued development for Kenny Pickett. Pickett had a rough time in his first few games last season but improved around New Year’s. The addition of Allen Robinson II gives the sophomore quarterback another option to stretch the field and create better plays. The addition takes less pressure off runningback Najee Harris and brings a better balance to sustain long offensive possessions.
The defense is still a top five unit in the league. What will help this unit more is the offense scoring more than 17 points a game. The Steelers defense had to play perfect to keep the team in games over the last three years and it takes a toll. That should change after the trade deadline expires. Pittsburgh will be a hard out for any division winner with aspirations of a deep postseason run.
2022 Regular Season AFC Playoff Predictions Record: 3-4
JD's Sportscorner 
Fascincating read, there will be a lot of pressure on Joe Burrow now that he has been handed that huge paycheck, lets’s hope for his sake he stays “Joe Cool” and can deliver. We saw what happened last season to another vastly overpaid QB. Still not completely convinced just yet that Miami is there just yet. Someday I would like if you could elaborate about why you consider Mike Vrabel and better coach than Doug Pederson. I’m not saying I disagree, I would just like to know your reasoning.
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I’ve seen the Bengals may have contract extension with receivers Tee Higgins. This will be an interesting season in Cincinnati. I appreciate your question about both Vrabel and Pederson. Vrabel seems to get the most out of his players on a consistent basis and does have a better knowledge of how to get certain messages to the roster due to how he was a defensive captain when he played. He adapts better in certain situations especially when things aren’t going well, which is another reason why I believe this AFC South divisional race will be a fun watch.
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