2024 AFC Conference Championship Playoff Pick

Three games remain. Four teams with two in each conference. The remaining two in the AFC are the west winning Kansas City Chiefs and the north division winning and conference leading Baltimore Ravens. Both teams have fast offenses, star quarterbacks, elite defenses, and bright-minded veteran head coaches. Time to determine who will advance to the Super Bowl.

#3 Kansas City Chiefs v. #1 Baltimore Ravens

Kansas City’s Travis Kelce (87) will have the focus of Baltimore’s secondary. The Chiefs need the receiving core to have their best game of the season Sunday.

The last time quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes II and Lamar Jackson faced off was week two 2021. A lot has happened for both teams since that Monday night game. Baltimore has the better and more talented offense while the Chiefs have struggled most of the season to score more than 21 points a game.

The biggest matchup will be Mahomes’ play-calling at the line of scrimmage versus Ravens captain and middle linebacker Roquan Smith. Smith is easily Baltimore’s best at the position since All-Pro Hall of Famer Ray Lewis retired after the 2012-2013 season. Roquan Smith captains the best scoring defense (16.5 points per game) that also had the most sacks in the league (58). His team-leading 158 tackles sets the tone. Mahomes must deceive Smith early and often to get an edge over him and the Ravens defense. It’ll be harder for the Chiefs to replicate last week’s offensive success against a defense at full health.

Buffalo’s receivers gave Kansas City’s secondary a lot of problems last Sunday. While Stefon Diggs is the focus of most defenses, the Bills found ways to move the ball on defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s secondary without Gabe Davis. Odell Beckham Jr., Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman and Nelson Agholor are too much for each member of the Chiefs secondary to cover one-on-one. The linebackers and front four will also have to deal with tight-ends Charlie Kolar and Isaiah Likely added in the passing game. Last but not least, there’s the endless possibility of Lamar Jackson extending plays past three seconds with his legs.

If anyone doubts how close this could be, keep in mind Ravens star tight-end Mark Andrews will return (via USA Today and PFF; Andrews not playing versus Houston was a late Friday decision) Sunday. Kansas City played against a Buffalo defense that didn’t have their leading tacklers and star linebackers, squeaking out a three point win. Baltimore will be ready against the reigning Super Bowl champions.

Prediction: Ravens win the AFC championship 31-21 and advance to Super Bowl LVIII

AFC divisional round playoff picks record: 1-1

2024 AFC playoff picks record: 3-2

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