The NBA finals are played in June and the victor of the series wins the championship. Champagne is sprayed, confetti falls and the winning team has bragging rights for almost a year with their trophy and accolades. For many viewers, the other 29 teams will be viewed as failures for coming up short. Perhaps the viewers are right; the losing teams come up short with many regrets. Runner-ups in the conference championships don’t have enough to win a few more games. The other 26 are losers separated by a few weeks or months.
Some teams exceed expectations by not just one year, but more than two or three. Last year the Sacramento Kings brought joy out of casual viewers (probably because they snapped their two decades long playoff drought) because it was a different team in California dominating opponents for a division title. One might say this year’s Orlando Magic is similar due to their myriad of misfortune since 2010. Orlando is where they should be after years of rebuilding, but the Oklahoma City Thunder is further ahead in its rebuild than anyone thought. General manager Sam Presti has impressed the league with his decision-making, and basketball fans should (mostly) love the team’s upward direction.
There’s a lot to like with this team. Let’s start with the most basic for those not familiar with the NBA; the Thunder (as of this writing) are tied for first in both the northwest division and the western conference. Point-guard and rising league star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a top choice to win league MVP and rookie (sort of) center Chet Holmgren is a close second for the Rookie of the Year award. The guard duo of Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey are one of the league’s best back court threats despite their postseason inexperience.
Then there’s Jalen Williams. The sophomore leads Oklahoma City in fourth quarter scoring. He can make a three point shot or charge straight to the rim, offsetting defensive stops by opponents. His footwork, passing and vision are improving weekly, leaving many to wonder how high his ceiling is to stardom. Jalen Williams’ 19 points per game, four rebounds, four and a half assists and 54% shooting put him as one of six players in NBA history to accomplish this at the age of 22 or younger.
A team this young and inexperienced in the playoffs won’t win the championship in 2024. The veteran playoff teams are more likely to prove why in the later rounds, but it’s shocking to many how good Oklahoma City is when several saw them as a play-in prediction this year. Presti is a big part of that progress, trading away star veterans and accumulating the needed players and draft picks to build a better roster.
Presti’s roster moves make the Thunder a fascinating case for how to plan ahead for both the draft and the salary cap. Regarding the latter, the franchise isn’t spending money on big name free agents…at least not yet. ESPN front office insider Bobby Marks tweeted that Oklahoma City’s salary cap is predicted to be around $141 million after their season ends. Contract extensions for Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams don’t start until the 2026-2027 season. The team’s paying less than $95 million for a 13 man roster.
Several franchises aren’t just trying to get at the Thunder on the court, they are also playing catch-up against a team loaded with extra salary cap space, a young determined roster, and trade pieces that could upend the NBA and the winning process many organizations have used in past years. If there is an asterisk for Oklahoma City, it may be how shooting guard Josh Giddey is handled after the postseason. While Giddey’s statutory rape charges were dropped, the situation puts both him and the franchise in an uncertain place. The league could decide to step in after nothing was handled and strip the Thunder of some draft and cap assets. One does wonder how severe the punishment might be after eight months and no follow up.
That draft situation gets more interesting. In the last five years, Oklahoma City traded for picks of every round. The Thunder have three first round picks for the upcoming 2024 draft. Four of the current starting five players are first round picks who are 25 years old or younger. They also have three first round and two second round picks for 2025 and seven first round picks from 2027-2029 in case Williams, Holmgren and/or Gilgeous-Alexander sign max-contracts.
Unless the league’s front office decides what actions to take, it’s clear that after the champion of 2024 is crowned, the second winner of the 2023-2024 season is Oklahoma City.
Here are the NBA power rankings for March
#30 Washington Wizards (last ranking: 30)
It was difficult choosing who would have the last place rank on here. At least Detroit is showing progress and has some semblance of a future. Washington doesn’t have a quality coach or a developing franchise star. They do have Kyle Kuzma averaging 21 points a game, but that’s not something to brag about.
#29 Detroit Pistons (last ranking: 29)
Since play resumed, the Pistons are playing the way many expected before the regular season began. They’ve lost by more than ten points in three games, all to serious playoff contenders. While there are roster issues, there is progress before the season ends. That was unfathomable two months ago.
#28 Charlotte Hornets (last ranking: 28)
That four game winning streak did little to calm down serious analysts who noticed front office and upper management changes after the trade deadline. It’s possible the fresh faces decide to clean out the entire roster once the regular season ends. I don’t see anyone (including LaMelo Ball and Miles Bridges) staying with the new owner and general manager itching to start over.
#27 San Antonio Spurs (last ranking: 27)
Number one pick and league phenom Victor Wembanyama became the first player in NBA history to record 75+ made three-point shots, 150+ assists and 150+ blocks in a debut season. He accomplished all that before February ended. Wembanyama became the 15th NBA player to post the rare ‘5×5’ statline in a 123-118 loss to the Lakers last month, finishing that game with 27 points, ten rebounds, eight assists, five steals, and five blocks in the 31 minutes he played (since the league started keeping track of steals and blocks in 1973-1974). Last but not least, he is one of two players who has put up multiple triple-doubles in under 30 minutes of a game this season. The only other player who has done that is regular season MVP favorite and reigning finals MVP Nikola Jokic. Teams are starting to double-cover Wembanyama on defense due to his stellar offensive performances. He’ll be scarier when San Antonio adds better complimentary players.
#26 Portland Trailblazers (last ranking: 26)
Portland was one of two winless teams in February (the other being the Wizards). It’s the third time in NBA history two teams have accomplished that feat. Somehow, Chauncey Billups keeps his coaching job until the end of the season. It is obvious management doesn’t care about the regular season and the team doesn’t most nights. One has to wonder if the league will take notice and do something about it.
#25 Memphis Grizzlies (last ranking: 25)
Guard DeJon Jarreau is third on Memphis in assists and leads the team in rebounds and steals. The Grizzlies found a good player to keep developing until everyone returns healthy next season.
#24 Toronto Raptors (last ranking: 24)
Scottie Barnes is the only player in the NBA to lead his team in all stats (points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks). Toronto will miss the playoffs due to blown leads and playing down to their competition, but Barnes will be their biggest star. The Raptors have to keep building around him after the season ends.
#23 Brooklyn Nets (last ranking: 23)
Brooklyn decided the answer to the start of their awful 2024 was firing Jacque Vaughn. Vaughn was keeping the team alive in the play-in race most of the season. Only the Nets could fully implode after acquiring another “super team” roster. There really needs to be a study of what goes on at 15 MetroTech Center, Brooklyn.
#22 Utah Jazz (last ranking: 19)
The drop off continued after the last rankings but there is hope for the franchise moving forward. Utah has played hard since new ownership and management took over. That’s a great starting point because the team knows they can have a few good months and hover around the play-in bubble. The Jazz now have to find star players the next few years who will lead the team into the play-in.
#21 Atlanta Hawks (last ranking: 21)
A hilarious stat popped up near the end of February showing Atlanta finished 750-750 in their last 1,500 games. A team couldn’t achieve this level of mediocrity if they tried. Since that stat came out, the Hawks are 5-6, making them 755-756 in 1,511 games.
#20 Houston Rockets (last ranking: 22)
They probably won’t make the play-in bubble but the Rockets have improved after the last few seasons, mostly due to the coach-player duo of Ime Udoka and Alperen Sengun. Houston’s situation is similar to Oklahoma City where there’s a lot of draft capital and cap space. The only difference would be adding free agents to compete for a starting role. The Rockets will be interesting to watch the last month of the regular season due to where they place in the draft and how management wants to move forward with those assets.
#19 Chicago Bulls (last ranking: 20)
Since the Bulls have nothing interesting going on, it’s important and refreshing to see Lonzo Ball has finally been cleared for advanced rehab activities and is nearing a return to practice. General manager Marc Eversley has an important decision on what to do with Ball after the season ends. His choice will decide the direction of the franchise.
#18 Golden State Warriors (last ranking: 18)
Golden State’s end to the regular season depends on Stephen Curry’s ankle sprain. His ankle’s progressing quicker than expected but the Warriors have to be patient. If he returns for the Monday night game against the Knicks, the last spot for the play-in bubble will be Golden State’s to lose.
#17 Los Angeles Lakers (last ranking: 17)
We need to zoom out of the inconsistent play for a moment and realize no one else has scored 40,000 points in league history until LeBron James did this month. I don’t think we will see that surpassed within the next 40 years.
Back to the part with the inconsistent play. The hilarious part with James is how the Lakers have lost every recent milestone and memorable game since the return from COVID-19. It’s ironic given that when there are GOAT debates, we know who would not lose these highlighted games.
#16 Philadelphia 76ers (last ranking: 13)
Philadelphia won their first game of the season Sunday without either Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey in what was the lowest scoring contest of the season 79-73. The Sixers need perfect defense to remain in the playoff race and that’s not enough since they might draw Cleveland or Milwaukee in the first round (if they get past the play-in). Tobias Harris, Buddy Hield and P.J. Tucker must step up and compete for leading scorer each game whenever Maxey can’t play.
#15 Miami Heat (last ranking: 9)
Just like the last few months of the 2021-2022 season, injuries are taking a toll on Miami late in the season after a championship finals series loss the previous year. Unless Orlando slumps the last month of the regular season, expect Miami to make a play-in round appearance.
#14 Dallas Mavericks (last ranking: 12)
A post from NBA Memes earlier this week revealed an interesting fact: Kevin Durant led the 2011-2012 Oklahoma City Thunder to an NBA Finals appearance when he was 23, the same age star point guard Luka Doncic is now. We can talk about who else was on that Thunder team but let’s not forget LeBron James made it to his first finals appearance at 22. Yes the Mavericks had Jalen Brunson as a great second scoring option and failed to re-sign him multiple times, but many will question Doncic’s supposed “all-time great” legacy if Dallas doesn’t make a championship finals appearance in either the next few months or next year.
#13 Sacramento Kings (last ranking: 16)
If Sacramento wants to avoid the play-in round, they have to beat every opponent not threatening for the postseason and five of the next ten versus playoff favorites. This is why losses against Detroit, Houston and Chicago the last month and a half were pains. The Kings are in a better position to clinch one of the top six seeds in the west but haven’t capitalized on those chances.
#12 Indiana Pacers (last ranking: 14)
Despite the high octane offense, Bennedict Mathurin’s season ending shoulder injury could force Indiana to make the play-in yet miss out on a middle playoff seed. While he was their fourth leading scorer, having sophomore shooting-guard Andrew Nembhard immediately in the starting role throws off both the offense and defense. Coach Rick Carlisle must get creative the last month of the regular season.
#11 Phoenix Suns (last ranking: 11)
The cluttered standings in the western conference means any team could wind up getting the four to six seeds. I see Phoenix as a play-in team due to both their inconsistent play each month and their remaining schedule. The Suns have a brutal last month of the regular season lined up and it wouldn’t surprise me if one or two teams surpass them in the standings.
#10 Orlando Magic (last ranking: 15)
Sophomore and former number one overall pick Paolo Banchero is one of only four players the last 40 years (since 1983-84) to have career averages of 20+ points, 6+ rebounds and 4+ assists at age 21 or younger. The other three were Michael Jordan, LeBron James and Luka Doncic (via Magic_PR). The young Magic core plays the game right and doesn’t focus on making three-point shots most of the time. In fact, they’re 34-11 when they shoot 35 or less three-pointers, and 5-17 when they shoot more than 35. This will be a fun team to watch the rest of 2024.
#9 New York Knicks (last ranking: 8)
There isn’t a more relieved team by Philadelphia’s fall than New York. The Knicks have been mediocre at best since that fabulous January. They’re fortunate their schedule gets easie
r before April starts. If there’s little improvement the last two weeks of the regular season, they will show viewers how far they’ll go in the playoffs.
#8 New Orleans Pelicans (last ranking: 10)
New Orleans decided franchise star Zion Williamson should play point guard and the results are incredible. Minus a blowout home loss against Cleveland, Williamson averaged seven assists a game in those ten games (most of which he played point guard in) and the Pelicans went 7-3. It’s not just their best basketball of the season, they’re finally showing audiences how high the ceiling can be when everyone’s healthy.
#7 Los Angeles Clippers (last ranking: 2)
Los Angeles’ spotty play since the All-Star break has been a concern but the double digit loss at home to Minnesota on Tuesday puts the Clippers in a dangerous position. Not only did the Timberwolves come back from a 22 point deficit and win by 18, but Los Angeles lost franchise and hometown star Kawhi Leonard to a back injury for what looks like a few weeks. While the west is the tighter conference, the Clippers schedule shouldn’t let them fall too far down the standings. Keep an eye on how Los Angeles handles the end of the month.
#6 Cleveland Cavaliers (last ranking: 5)
Cleveland probably won’t win the central division due to some unnecessary losses at the end of February and the beginning of March (another team in their division is also looking better) but the Cavaliers are still the third seed in the east. Cleveland should remain a favorite to make round two of the postseason no matter who they draw in the first round (barring any injuries).
#5 Milwaukee Bucks (last ranking: 7)
The defense is slowly improving but I’m not sure how Milwaukee will perform in the later playoff rounds with Doc Rivers’ coaching. The Bucks could play their best basketball in April and use those changes to advance to the conference finals. It’s also possible Milwaukee’s defense is their downfall, especially if the offense stalls against a more defensive-minded team like New York or against division rivals Cleveland and Indiana.
#4 Oklahoma City Thunder (last ranking: 6)
It has been an incredible season for the franchise that many will forget Shai Gilgeous-Alexander finally surpassed Kevin Durant with the most 30+ point games in a season with 48 (Durant had 47 in both 2010 and 2014. Right now Gilgeous-Alexander has 49). He has 94 games averaging 30+ points in not even two full seasons. Gilgeous-Alexander is the player many thought Luka Doncic would be while making his teammates better.
#3 Minnesota Timberwolves (last ranking: 4)
My long-running gripe with this team was how they’d perform closer to the postseason with two well-paid big men in Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert. Since Towns was sidelined with a left knee meniscus tear, Minnesota is a better team with Anthony Edwards as the star player and Rudy Gobert sticking to defense. The Timberwolves must go with this formula moving forward and find the right complimentary players for Edwards once their season is done.
#2 Boston Celtics (last ranking: 3)
I agree with TNT’s Charles Barkley that if Boston doesn’t win the championship this June, they won’t win it anytime soon. The Celtics’ starting five and their roster depth are too good to just make conference finals and championship finals appearances. There’s so much pressure on Boston to win another title that I’m not sure they can do it if an opponent is more at ease or better coached.
#1 Denver Nuggets (last ranking: 1)
MVP favorite Nikola Jokic became the third player all-time to record a triple-double against every team (joining LeBron James and Russell Westbrook) when he recorded a 21 point, 19 rebound and 15 assist statline against the Wizards on February 22nd. He’s the main reason the Nuggets are tied for first in both the northwest division and the western conference. It’s important to keep in mind if Denver gets the one seed, it will be harder for the rest of the conference to win more than two games in Ball Arena once the postseason begins. That will deflate most of the conference and drain any fun for the team that wins the eighth seed because the Nuggets will not lose four games to an undermanned play-in winner. It’s not good news for veteran teams Golden State, the Los Angeles teams or Phoenix.
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