March 2024 NHL Power Rankings: No Contest in the East

A new month begins and one can see which teams will clinch playoff seeds and which ones could make a championship run. NHL Network analyst Brian Laughton said three years ago most teams are usually a few plays to a few players away from being postseason contenders each year. Four out of five times, that’s the correct analysis. Anything can happen on the ice. Viewers have seen so many upsets and what-if scenarios on who even makes the playoffs (we’re looking at you 2022-2023 Pittsburgh Penguins and Florida Panthers) that an entire series can change in the blink of an eye.

The remaining one fifth is easy to predict and at times unanimous. The 2021-2022 eastern conference comes to mind. Once the all-star weekend started, everyone knew which eight teams in the conference were going to make the playoffs. There was no pushback from any of the bottom eight teams once the second half began. The 2022 regular season ended with the eighth seeded Capitals finishing ahead of the ninth ranked Islanders by 16 points. Both teams were in no shape to win a first round series, but the points margin was eye opening even to a casual viewer.

The NHL’s 2023-2024 eastern conference is starting to mirror that result. If one looks at the eastern conference standings today, it’s a given the top five teams (all have 76 points or more) will make the playoffs. All five have good coaches, at least three quality goal scorers and solid roster depth. The bottom three trio of Philadelphia, Detroit and Tampa Bay have faced multiple issues this season and despite slumps, trade talks or not enough veteran presence are still in a good position to clinch a playoff spot a week or two after the trade deadline.

This is why it’s important to watch how every team plays once the calendar year begins. The remaining five teams on the outside (Columbus, Ottawa and Montreal are pretty much eliminated from contention) will have a hard time getting one of the top eight spots. The Capitals, Devils, Penguins and Islanders are the closest teams that could upset one of the three under 76 points. Washington’s defense is surprisingly better than previous years and captain Alex Ovechkin is heating up at the best time. However they also lost T.J. Oshie and still don’t have Nicklas Backstrom. The Capitals have the third worst scoring offense in the league and not enough depth to average three goals a game against quality contenders. They have a brutal schedule this month with almost every game against a top team close to clinching a playoff spot or a western conference team trying to stay relevant and jump past other rivals in the postseason standings.

New Jersey is on the opposite end. Forward Jack Hughes is back and the offense looks great but the defense is one of the league’s worst. Many believe the Devils will trade for a star netminder by the March eighth deadline. If the plan is to get a goalie such as John Gibson, Juuse Saros, Elvis Merzlikins or Anton Forsberg, then New Jersey has to give up at least one important player on offense. The Devils aren’t the only team wanting to get into the playoffs that would like goalie help and there’s also no guarantee any of the four names would fix the nagging defensive issues many teams have exploited all season.

Pittsburgh could be the most threatening of the four on paper. They’ve played only 57 games and can add more offensive-minded pieces with tradable players such as Erik Karlsson, Brian Rust and Rickard Rakell. The Penguins will have to contend with a heavy March schedule that features eleven games against playoff hopefuls (including two against Edmonton). Their “easier” games against Ottawa and Columbus will also be hard. There’s no guarantee they’ll find a trade partner who will exchange offensive talent without wanting more in return, and Pittsburgh isn’t in a position to trade away draft picks or any of their core three players.

The Islanders might be the worst of the four. They’re historically bad on the penalty-kill, have only two twenty goal scorers and are in the bottom half of the league in both total offense and defense. Like Washington and Pittsburgh, New York has a rough schedule the last four weeks of the regular season. They didn’t even score their first empty net goal of the season until Leap Day.

Keep in mind that if any of these four wind up getting the eighth or seventh seed, it means one or two of the Tampa Bay-Detroit-Philadelphia trio has to implode their nine point lead. This presents other problems. Despite Pittsburgh having the extra games to play compared to Washington, could the general managers of both franchises decide to give up more assets at the trade deadline instead of coming up short of a playoff spot and a few extra weeks of play?

Many teams believe the trade deadline is the last chance to make necessary changes and want to head into April as postseason favorites. Florida had that mindset last year and wound up representing the conference in the Stanley Cup finals. However the Panthers had more than just luck heading into that championship appearance. Unless any of the Lightning, Red Wings or Flyers trio believes they can’t go any further, we should assume the only serious issues in the east will be seeding for the top eight teams.

Here are the power rankings for March.

#32 Chicago Blackhawks (last ranking: 32)

Former players Alex DeBrincat and Patrick Kane scoring the game tying and winning goals on former Hall of Fame defenseman Chris Chelios’ jersey retirement night is another stain on the franchise. Chicago didn’t retain the necessary players after winning their third championship this century and the front office blunders continue to show in meaningful games. One has to wonder how much of the rebuild around franchise star Connor Bedard gets botched after this season.

#31 San Jose Sharks (last ranking: 31)

Until he got hurt, Tomas Hertl was considered the big name San Jose could move by the trade deadline. A team last in goals for and against won’t have many attractive assets available to postseason contending teams unless it’s solidifying depth or fleecing a franchise trying to clinch a lower playoff spot. The Sharks might be stuck with this whole roster another two months.

#30 Anaheim Ducks (last ranking: 30)

The past month was a net positive for the Ducks despite having four wins to show for it. However three of the four came against the Sabres, Senators and Devils. Those eastern conference teams needed the two points for a better position in the wildcard race. Anaheim also has better trade options than San Jose while their younger core players get better.

#29 Columbus Blue Jackets (last ranking: 29)

The firing of the league’s longest tenured general manager Jarmo Kekalainen has ripple effects. February hadn’t ended and Emil Bemstrom was traded to Pittsburgh on the 22nd. This means Columbus will have multiple purges next week and the following months.

#28 Arizona Coyotes (last ranking: 25)

What a tailspin. Analysts went from watching Arizona’s potential to wondering if they’ll deal a lot of the core roster. What a disastrous February for the Coyotes and at the worst possible time.

#27 Montreal Canadiens (last ranking: 27)

It was brought up by Jamison Coyle and Bruce Boudreau on the NHL Network this past week that Martin St. Louis could be relieved as head coach at the end of the season if Montreal doesn’t feel there’s enough progress with the current young core. That’s an impulsive move. Anyone watching the NHL knows the Canadiens are re-building a roster that doesn’t have a top tier goalie or a dangerous goal scorer. St. Louis would be a coveted coaching name should he be fired.

On a positive, it’s good to see someone showed the power rankings to Juraj Slafkovsky. He had the best month of his young, professional career.

#26 Ottawa Senators (last ranking: 28)

Ottawa’s progress depends on how well they improve on total defense. Their struggle this week (starting at Washington) was due to a return of the run-and-gun offensive style of play they were used to under former coach D.J. Smith. That cost them needed points. It’s too late for the Senators to make a playoff run but new management should have a good idea of who’s worth keeping and who should be traded by the March eighth deadline.

#25 Buffalo Sabres (last ranking: 24)

Buffalo is capable of beating quality playoff teams but not two or three times a week the next month and a half. The Sabres don’t have a 20+ goal scorer on the team and have already played 60 games. There couldn’t be more pressure on general manager Kevyn Adams to determine how closer the team is in their rebuild and a new coach after this month.

#24 New York Islanders (last ranking: 20)

After one month of Patrick Roy’s return to coaching New York has:

• Retained a historically bad penalty kill at 71%.
• Been shutout against a mediocre Blues team that scored three goals in 32 seconds February 22nd.
• The fourth worst win percentage when leading after the second period at .720 (ahead of only Chicago, San Jose and Columbus).

You know who wouldn’t have the Islanders playing some of the worst defense in franchise (and at times league) history? Barry Trotz. Someone has to pick general manager Lou Lamoriello’s brain into why firing him was a bright idea.

#23 Seattle Kraken (last ranking: 18)

What a breakout year for Jared McCann. He leads the team in goals and points while being third in assists and second on power-play points. He’s on the first line with Matty Beniers, so it’s important Seattle keeps him around not just for Beniers to keep growing into his star role, but for depth if both end up in a scoring slump.

#22 Washington Capitals (last ranking: 22)

Just as I predicted, Alex Ovechkin is back to where we thought he’d be on offense once other players either returned from personal matters, injuries or stepping into their needed roles. Yes Pittsburgh has more games to play and could sneak up on the current eighth seed, but if any of the eight teams had to pick which one on the outside they don’t want to see get hot this month, I assure you at least six teams would pick the Capitals. Washington would threaten many postseason dreams if they somehow get a top eight spot in the east.

#21 New Jersey Devils (last ranking: 21)

After their Sunday thrashing against Tampa Bay, TNT’s Paul Bissonnette dropped an interesting stat: the Devils give up the first goal in 72% of their games. That means not only is New Jersey playing rush offense hockey most of the time, they’re not improving on defense due to how they’re not used to playing from behind. The studio panel mostly agreed with me that coach Lindy Ruff and upper management should be more concerned about developing the defense the rest of this season instead of making a playoff push.

#20 Calgary Flames (last ranking: 23)

Who knew trading away players like Elias Lindholm would result in the best month of the season? Outside of one winless week, Calgary won all their games and dominated against Boston, Winnipeg, Edmonton and Los Angeles. The Flames have nothing to lose and for the first time this season, that makes them a threat to veteran teams trying to play their best.

#19 St. Louis Blues (last ranking: 19)

St. Louis is ahead of Calgary due to how much more talent they have but that could evaporate next week. Their defense gave up four goals or more in all but one of their losses in February. The Blues more than likely end the season with fire sale cap shedding from general manager Doug Armstrong.

#18 Pittsburgh Penguins (last ranking: 19)

To follow up on last month’s commentary with Pittsburgh, more rumors are saying defenseman Erik Karlsson could be traded back to Ottawa. This is a great idea for both teams. Karlsson would balance out and add needed veteran leadership back to the Senators now that Daniel Alfredsson is an assistant coach, but more importantly the Penguins need high scoring offensive players who can open up the power-play. Vladimir Tarasenko is a possibility since he’s won a championship within the last five years and was rumored to be on the trading bloc. Be on the lookout for how this develops.

#17 Minnesota Wild (last ranking: 26)

That’s more like it. Minnesota is finally playing like the team we expected to see this year. In their last eleven games, they averaged four goals on offense, had a 30% power play and a 79% penalty kill. If the defense allows fewer than three goals a game this month, they’ll definitely make the playoffs and give fits to whoever becomes the one or two seed.

#16 Los Angeles Kings (last ranking: 15)

Anything was an improvement over January. Interim coach Jim Hiller is off to a solid start after taking over. There are still serious concerns about how this team plays and how bad some of the February losses are, but there’s stability and veteran players aren’t disgruntled. Los Angeles needs all the wins it can get on and off the ice.

#15 Nashville Predators (last ranking: 16)

General manager Barry Trotz is the man of the hour in Nashville and no one would want to be in his position right now. After giving up nine goals to division rival Dallas, the Predators have surged for a seven game winning streak. Yet the Juuse Saros trade (and contract extension) talks, what direction this team wants to go in and how much roster talent will be retained brings uncertainty. Serious hockey analysts are aware that whatever happens, the team is in good hands with Trotz’s decisions.

#14 Tampa Bay Lightning (last ranking: 11)

Another general manager to keep an eye on at the trade deadline is Julien BriseBois. The Lightning’s defensive struggles were exposed every week in February, peaking in an embarrassing 6-2 loss in Philadelphia that shocked many in the hockey world. BriseBois has to find at least one quality defenseman who can take the pressure off Victor Hedman and Erik Cernak. Without a pivotal trade, Tampa Bay’s path to the playoffs gets harder.

#13 Philadelphia Flyers (last ranking: 17)

I believe Philadelphia isn’t just ahead of their roster rebuild, but they’re in a position where they could seriously threaten to, or eliminate whoever is the one or two seed in the east should they stay at their current points pace. The question then becomes how much do both coach John Tortorella and general manager Daniel Briere improve both the roster and the power-play while retaining the deadliest penalty kill in the league? The Flyers have added a good number of players the last year and a half who fit the organization’s attitude almost perfectly, so this will be interesting to watch.

#12 Edmonton Oilers (last ranking: 12)

One of the best things I did when creating these power rankings was how to evaluate a team’s overall, season performance. This is not a power rankings constantly swayed by in-the-now mindsets and hot takes due to flashy stats.

Many analysts had Edmonton as the best team in the league due to their winning streak. As many read last month, it was more important to see what team showed up once the streak snapped. The Oilers are 6-5 since their loss to Vegas and captain Connor McDavid scored his first goal after an eleven game drought. We’ll have a better idea of which Edmonton team we’ll get for the playoffs throughout the month.

#11 Vegas Golden Knights (last ranking: 6)

The championship luster has worn off for the reigning champions. After ending Edmonton’s historical winning streak, Vegas went 3-6 the rest of February. Two of those wins were against Arizona and San Jose. Not having captain Mark Stone is part of it but the defense is mediocre at best. It’s possible the Golden Knights become an active trade partner at the deadline.

#10 Detroit Red Wings (last ranking: 13)

If one was in a coma for the last 20 years and woke up this month and didn’t see the numbers nor names on the jerseys of the active players, they would think the Russian Five were still on ice. During Detroit’s impressive six game winning streak they outscored opponents 28-10. The goalies averaged a .947 save percentage, while the power-play is at 31% and the penalty kill at 80%. The scariest part of the Red Wings improvement is how general manager Steve Yzerman will probably be active at the trade deadline.

#9 Toronto Maple Leafs (last ranking: 10)

The Leafs had a great February highlighted by a seven game winning streak. All they have to show for it is a four point lead over Detroit for the third playoff spot in the atlantic. Toronto still deserves credit for playing well in close games and getting better defense and goaltending presence.

#8 Dallas Stars (last ranking: 7)

We’re in the serious part of the power rankings now and Dallas has to be kicking themselves again after another month of mediocre play. Instead of a sizable first place lead in the central division, they’re only two points ahead of Colorado, who spanked them 5-1 on Tuesday. The Stars have to play more seriously and consistently against quality playoff teams. The trade for Flames defenseman Chris Tanev could help determine how much of a division lead they retain.

#7 Carolina Hurricanes (last ranking: 8)

While the franchise should feel good Jacob Slavin is tied for first in franchise history with most points by a defenseman, it’s gone under the radar how the Hurricanes have the league’s second lowest team save percentage at .890 (ahead of only Ottawa’s .885). This is worrying when they also allow the second fewest shots per game with 25.5. Carolina’s a really good team but when they aren’t scoring three goals a game, defensive errors show. The Hurricanes could benefit with a trade or two at the deadline for an extra goaltender wanting to prove themselves.

#6 Colorado Avalanche (last ranking: 2)

Most analysts are enamored with Nathan MacKinnon’s point streak and for good reasons. What should be the main conversation is Colorado’s 5-7 February record. They desperately miss their scoring depth and captain. The Avalanche need help by the trade deadline if they want to make a deep playoff run. There’s no reason for panic yet. The Avalanche are two points out of first place in the central and Valeri Nichushkin is close to returning.

#5 New York Rangers (last ranking: 9)

Igor Shesterkin is 100% back and that’s not good for the east. He’s undefeated in his last seven starts giving up 1.72 goals a game with a .953 save percentage. He also recorded a shutout on national t.v. and allowed one goal or fewer in five of those seven starts. Shesterkin’s a big reason the Rangers won every game he started in February and why New York has one of the league’s best records.

#4 Boston Bruins (last ranking: 5)

A good number of hockey fans (especially Rangers fans) will be perplexed with Boston’s ranking especially with the analysis that will be provided. Keep in mind New York had a great month, but anything can happen in March with how they’ll play a lot more games. Fatigue could set in early, so it’s better to be consistent as I have been with other teams the past few months.

Boston has to figure some things out. They got bullied by more physical teams touting larger defensemen. It’s one thing to split games with Vancouver, but getting shutout at home to Washington and losing both games to Seattle and Calgary have to be addressed. It also doesn’t help that the Bruins have the sixth worst win percentage when leading after the second period (.758). General manager Don Sweeney might want to acquire an extra defenseman or two at the trade deadline.

#3 Winnipeg Jets (last ranking: 3)

I won’t address the surprising financial issues because that’s beyond any of us. For now, the on-ice play is what matters most.

Connor Hellebuyck tied Martin Brodeur for fifth in most consecutive games with three goals or fewer with 31. After the streak snapped he’s mostly continued like nothing happened. It would be stunning if Hellebuyck doesn’t win the Vezina this season.

#2 Vancouver Canucks (last ranking: 1)

Again, a good number of readers might be surprised by this ranking when Vancouver went under .500 for February. It also didn’t help that strong rumors of Elias Pettersson being traded at the deadline due to an impasse over contract negotiations flared up again. Despite the subpar play, the Canucks are ten points ahead of the next challenger in the pacific and they haven’t slipped out of first in the west despite the slump. While coach Rick Tocchet has to make sure the defense fixes their mistakes, Vancouver will keep the one spot in the west until Winnipeg, Dallas or Colorado go on another major winning streak.

#1 Florida Panthers (last ranking: 4)

Florida being the top team shouldn’t surprise anyone. From an eleven road game winning streak (tied for NHL second best all-time), to Matthew Tkachuk being the NHL point leader most of the calendar year, to throttling almost every opponent faced in February, there’s no doubt the Panthers are the hottest and scariest team to start March. Sam Reinhart wasn’t a goal-scoring threat and the team still averaged three goals in each of their wins while losing two games with a combined score of 3-1. Good luck to whoever draws this team in the first round.