2024 NHL Stanley Cup Finals Prediction

The finals are set. Florida and Edmonton are stacked with stars, deep rosters, and savvy coaches. Their power-plays and penalty kills are some of the best since playoffs began. Whoever wins the finals deserves the accolades and label of champion. It’s time to break down which team has the best chance of winning the finals and taking home both the Conn Smythe and Stanley Cup.

#4 Edmonton Oilers v. #3 Florida Panthers

There couldn’t be two, more different finals opponents. Edmonton has two league MVPs, a defensive minded coach still in his first season with an NHL team and one of the best season turnarounds this decade. Florida has the second oldest and most winningest coach who’s never won a championship, a two-time Vezina winner in net, and fulfilled expectations to repeat as eastern conference champions. The province of Alberta has its first team back in the championship since 2006 while a Florida team is back in the finals for the fifth straight year.

The Oilers love to play the middle of the ice, use speed to drive to the net, and enjoy disrupting opponents from settling into their offensive attacks. The Panthers excel at playing the middle of the ice on defense, wear down opponents with brutal forechecking and create offense with multiple scoring chances better than anyone.

Series deciding factor: Aleksander Barkov and the Panthers power-play v. Mattias Ekholm and the Oilers penalty-kill

Florida learned the valuable lessons in last year’s beat-down against Vegas. The Panthers have perfected the focused, disciplined championship mindset. It shows best on special teams, and will face its ultimate test against the best penalty killing team this entire playoffs. Edmonton gave up a shocking zero power-play goals in the conference finals against Dallas, single-handedly swinging the series in their favor. A big reason the Oilers penalty kill succeeded was coach Peter DeBoer’s stubborn mindset of having the offense pass the puck around and take shots on the outside. Too many outside shots means little rebounding opportunities for second or third scoring chances.

Florida doesn’t have that mindset. They will challenge defensemen Mattias Ekholm, Darnell Nurse and Evan Bouchard more than the trio faced at any point in previous series. The main question many wonder about is how the almost perfect Edmonton penalty-kill and coach Kris Knoblauch respond and adjust once Florida scores. Captain Aleksander Barkov has always been a bright-minded scoring threat. His added determination to break defenses in layers this season has decimated the league’s best goaltenders and most creative coaching minds. Barkov will have the league’s second best goal-scorer of 2024 in Sam Reinhart, playoff leading scorer Carter Verhaeghe, the ever-dangerous Matthew Tkachuk and either one of the best defensemen in Aaron Ekblad or former champion and star Vladimir Tarasenko each power-play opportunity.

The Panthers have shown both audiences and teams they’ve played how to dictate gamepace. It comes with brutal, physical checking into the walls and around the net while creating quality shots and rebounding opportunities in front of the goaltender. No one embodies this like former Flame and Oilers rival Matthew Tkachuk, who will have goaltender Stuart Skinner (and maybe Calvin Pickard?) on edge every minute Florida’s in the offensive zone.

Verdict: Coaching is one of the two major factors determining who wins the championship. Dating back to his Winnipeg days, Paul Maurice has played the Connor McDavid-led Oilers perfect in the postseason. No other coach has frustrated or even shut-out Edmonton in a way the Oilers appeared to quit. Maurice hasn’t coached Florida as hard as he did with the Jets for various reasons, but when he does, he’s the best voice anyone could listen to and learn from. He has a two time Vezina winning goaltender playing like his prime self again and even star goal-scorers such as Vladimir Tarasenko bought in 100% to his philosophy.

The other factor will be which team physically batters the other. The Stars decided not to rough up the Oilers in the conference finals, and it might have cost them the series. Florida is one of the meanest teams on ice, baiting opponents and initiating fights. Captain Connor McDavid is not a star player who likes to fight nor get physically assaulted during a game. The Panthers will have plenty of opportunities to establish their dominance by causing altercations after the whistle. Florida fan-favorite Ryan Lomberg alone could throw half the Edmonton roster off their focus.

Prediction: Florida Panthers defeat the Oilers 4-1 and win their first championship in franchise history.

Conn Smythe Winner: Sergei Bobrovsky

2024 Total NHL playoffs record: 9-5