2025 NHL Eastern Conference First Round Playoff Predictions

This could not be a more polarizing first round in the eastern conference. There are thrilling state and provincial rivalries, and then there are two simpler matchups. Despite the Washington Capitals being the best team in the east, their brilliant coach has never led a franchise into the postseason. The Carolina Hurricanes again have pressure to make it past the first round faster than their future opponents. The Toronto Maple Leafs and the Ottawa Senators look to upend everyone’s predictions while Florida and Tampa Bay make another push to return to the championship round. Most teams have their hands full against deep rosters wanting a conference finals appearance. It’s time to break down which four teams have the best chance of advancing to the second round.

#7 New Jersey Devils v. #4 Carolina Hurricanes

This is the most lopsided NHL first round series. New Jersey won’t have center Jack Hughes, defenseman Jonas Siegenthaler, and forward Timo Meier due to injuries. Defenseman Johnathan Kovacevic has been benched due to conflicts with coach Sheldon Keefe. Carolina has the conference’s best home record, and their offense yearns to run the score up against a top five defense. This will be a fast series and an ugly end to the season for the Devils.

Prediction: Hurricanes win series 4-1

#8 Montreal Canadiens v. #1 Washington Capitals

Montreal remarkably went from the NHL’s second worst team to start 2025, to clinching the last playoff seed in either conference earlier this week. The Canadiens have a passionate, young and talented core coached by former Hall of Fame champion Martin St. Louis. They’re smart and constantly adapt to whatever situations are thrown their way.

Unfortunately, that won’t be enough against the top seeded Capitals. Washington had a top three offense and a top ten defense. Coach Spencer Carberry may the weakest link since he has not seen the playoffs as a coach before, but veteran team leaders Alex Ovechkin, Tom Wilson, Dylan Strome and Charlie Lindgren easily out-match Montreal’s young and inexperienced core.

Prediction: Washington wins series 4-2

#6 Ottawa Senators v. #2 Toronto Maple Leafs

The Battle of Ontario could be the most important first round series in either conference. The winner not only plays the winner of the Battle of Florida series, but could wind up going to the conference finals depending on next round’s opponent.

Ottawa’s return to the postseason since their 2017 eastern conference finals appearance brings renewed vigor to the nation’s capital and the franchise’s fandom and ownership. Toronto has improved on defense and has the offensive firepower to outscore almost anyone, but the Senators are on another level when it comes to their provincial rivals. Usually, one wouldn’t pick the regular season series winner to replicate their success in the playoffs. However, the temptation to pick Ottawa wins out because they swept the regular season five game series against the Maple Leafs. Toronto tried to beat the Senators in different ways, but none were successful. If they had played each other three times, the Maple Leafs would be favored. Five straight losses to rising Ottawa shows how this series will turn out.

Eastern conference upset prediction of the first round: Senators win series 4-1

#5 Florida Panthers v. #3 Tampa Bay Lightning

If it’s not the Battle of Ontario winner, the Battle of Florida winner will determine who advances to the Stanley Cup finals in the eastern conference. The Sunshine State has represented the conference in the last five championship appearances. There’s a great chance the streak continues.

Florida and Tampa Bay look even to the average fan. To be fair, this is a 50/50 pick. For those who enjoy watching film, there are variables that decide who advances. The Panthers were battered with injuries to start 2025. Losing big name players like defenseman Gustav Forsling and forward Matthew Tkachuk were recent blows to Florida’s chances of winning the Atlantic division. Both are expected to play at some point, and the return of defenseman Aaron Ekblad (was suspended due to illegal substance use) are pluses. While this sounds good, it puts the Panthers at an early disadvantage against the determined and red-hot Lightning.

Tampa Bay is top three in total offense and defense. They know how to find every team’s weaknesses and play their best against championship contenders. The Lightning’s roster is fully healthy, focused and better coached this time. They also have the home ice advantage. Additional pressure on the Panthers to repeat last year’s championship run tilts this in Tampa Bay’s favor.

Prediction: Lightning win series 4-2

Regular season eastern conference playoffs prediction record: 6-2