The 2024-25 NBA regular season ended in anticipation of a thrilling western conference playoff race. MVP front-runner Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder are favorites to make a deep run to the championship while the young Rockets want to prove they can compete and beat the best veteran teams. No one should underestimate the resurgence of Golden State or of either Los Angeles team. Denver remains the team everyone wants out in order to have a fair chance at the finals. Four talented squads will advance to the second round. Time to break down which four have the best chance.
#8 Memphis Grizzlies v. #1 Oklahoma City Thunder
This should be one of the most fun first round series. Memphis and Oklahoma City have great guard and forward duos. Both teams have roster depth the remaining six western teams covet. Despite their similarities, there’s a clear winner here.
The Grizzlies have the players to double-team MVP favorite guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Should Memphis stick to that game-plan, the Thunder will let guards Alex Caruso and Luguentz Dort take more shots and chances to lead the offense. Oklahoma City also has the advantage at center with Isaiah Hartenstein and Jaylin Williams over the Grizzlies Zach Edey.
Prediction: Thunder win series 4-2
#6 Minnesota Timberwolves v. #3 Los Angeles Lakers
There are a lot of fun storylines and history both teams share. Los Angeles revamped their roster mid-season while Minnesota upgraded theirs last offseason. Both teams have great guards and forwards. Even depth scoring and coaching have improved since the All-Star break.
The Lakers do have the better point-guard matchup with Luka Doncic over Mike Conley. Although Doncic and veteran forward LeBron James play great in the regular season, they elevate their performances once the postseason starts. Timberwolves shooting guard Anthony Edwards will keep the series close, but he can’t do it all by himself.
Prediction: Lakers win series 4-2
#7 Golden State Warriors v. #2 Houston Rockets
One could not find a worse first round matchup for Houston if they tried. Golden State is 4-0 all-time in playoff series against the Rockets and has the second best league record since the trade deadline. While Houston is the best rebounding team and plays well around the basket, they’re ill-equipped to handle the Warriors exceptional shooting and improved all-around play. Coach Ime Udoka will use every tactic available to keep the series close, but there is only so much he can do before point guard Steph Curry and forward Jimmy Butler III take over and dominate game pace.
Prediction: Warriors win series 4-1
#5 Los Angeles Clippers v. #4 Denver Nuggets
This is the best first round series in either conference. Los Angeles is fully healthy and Denver has played better since coach Michael Malone was fired. Not only is MVP candidate Nikola Jokic fun to watch, it will be interesting to see how star forward Kawhi Leonard counters him on defense. Clippers guards James Harden and Kris Dunn will have a hard time defending Nuggets guards Jamal Murray and Russell Westbrook. Los Angeles center Ivica Zubac is a good counter to forward Aaron Gordon.
If there are weaknesses on either team, it’s bench depth. Both franchises have great starters, but at some point Los Angeles has to rest theirs given how each has previous injury concerns. Denver can substitute their starters without worrying how it’ll take a toll on the team later in the postseason.
Prediction: Nuggets win series 4-2
Regular season western conference playoffs and play-in predictions record: 5-4
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