What a fun season first half. Ratings are climbing and there is more demand. Unlike last season, most awards will be toss-ups. Whoever wins the MVP, Rookie of the Year or Most Improved Player award will be talked about for at least half a year. The eight team playoff race should also have an exciting finish. The bottom three spots will be up for grabs and could be determined by which star players miss significant time in the second half of the season. Here are some main questions and talking points that stand out most with the second half of the regular season starting tonight.
Which team has the best chance of winning the championship this year? Could the New York Liberty repeat as champions?
If New York wants to repeat their title run, they need star players like center Jonquel Jones fully healthy and role players like Isabelle Harrison scoring and out-rebounding opposing offenses. The Liberty have been streaky but were good enough to be the second best team at the break.
The two teams that have a good chance to reach and win the championship are Minnesota and Phoenix. Despite the number of games the Lynx played the last three weeks, they’re still the league’s best team. Forward Napheesa Collier is (currently) a lock for league MVP and is the first Lynx player to lead the WNBA in scoring since Maya Moore. Cheryl Reeve remains the league’s best coach and gets the most out of a roster where the second best player is veteran guard Kayla McBride.
Yet the Mercury could be the most dangerous team entering the second half. They signed one of the league’s best all-time scorers in DeWanna Bonner not even a week after Indiana waived her. For now, the 16 year veteran comes off the bench (even with Satou Sabally out with an ankle injury). Many expect she’ll be a starter at some point before the playoffs. The starting five of Bonner, Sabally, Kahleah Copper, Alyssa Thomas and Kalani Brown can overwhelm opponents and make Phoenix the most dangerous team entering August.
National media still struggles to cover the WNBA objectively on almost every level
Multiple things can be true: a good amount of the sudden, spike of interest in the WNBA is because of Indiana Fever star point guard Caitlin Clark getting drafted number one overall last year. The last two drafts have introduced stars at multiple positions in multiple cities. There’s also a bias in reporting on certain players, teams and games that have made watching much of the last two seasons difficult.
Say whatever you want about Chicago’s star forward Angel Reese, she is in the news for every possible reason. Audiences know when she doesn’t play well versus when she dominates. Clark was said and promised to be a lot of things during and after last year’s rookie season. Her struggles ranging from dribbling weaknesses to her road game shooting accuracies have silenced major sports outlets like ESPN, FoxSports and CBS. In fact, ESPN’s Andraya Carter made a weird pivot to start July by saying the face of the league (which was said to be Clark) should be a player who’s shown staying power and won championships.
How fascinating that when the topic is the WNBA, actual sports broadcasters, journalists and analysts suddenly don’t know how to do their jobs. They can skip over certain players struggling as much as they’re not praising certain rookie players, improved teams or other issues plaguing the league’s progress. Number one pick of this year’s draft Paige Bueckers has surprisingly become the best player on the Wings (despite how veteran guard Arike Ogunbowale was consistently the best scorer and most well known name for the franchise). Sadly, the media doesn’t cover how well Bueckers plays because she doesn’t feed into certain narratives. Many new fans who would love to hear about Washington rookies Kiki Iriafen and Sonia Citron. Veteran stars like Kahleah Copper should be as celebrated and talked about on a level similar to A’ja Wilson. Unfortunately, the league and media covering them either lack incentives to promote certain players or seemingly try to sabotage the product put out.
This is why the launch of the recent Twitch livestream StudBudz by Minnesota Lynx players Courtney Williams and Natisha Hiedeman last weekend was important and a rousing success. Not only were the shenanigans, fun, light-hearted or engaging interviews with numerous All-Stars a refreshing watch, they wound up going viral and talked about everywhere in the U.S. sports world. No one would ever do or replicate something as fascinating and must-watch worthy in the NBA. This is what the WNBA needs and should have more focus on instead of traditionally nonchalant (and often woefully ill-informed) outlets spouting their own biases with women’s sports.
The hardest award to determine will be Most Improved Player
The WNBA’s Most Improved Player award has a lot of competition this year. All but three women will miss out despite improved stats and contributions to their team’s successes. Right now serious analysts have Chicago’s Angel Reese, Golden State’s Kayla Thornton and Seattle’s Gabby Williams as the top three choices. These three are the top reasons why their teams stay in the playoff race.
- Angel Reese has taken a big step forward after last year’s season ending wrist injury. Reese has improved her shut-down defense and rebounding presence while improving her shooting and free-throw accuracy. Reese has also refined her passing to open teammates and has more control over the team’s offensive rhythm and her shot selection.
- Kayla Thornton is Golden State’s motor each game. The brand new Valkyries leading scorer, rebounder and defender came off a 2024 championship determined to repeat or at least drag her team into the playoffs. She was one of the WNBA’s most underrated players and impressed viewers in the All-Star game.
- Last power rankings gave Gabby Williams the credentials showing why she will be nominated. She is top four in every major stat category for her team. The Storm is also the fourth best team and has more than enough to win a series against New York, Connecticut and Minnesota. That starts with Williams’ multi-faceted play.
Whoever wins this award will be a bigger name next season for both their teams and national ratings. All three teams will be wise to continue building around these stellar stars in the offseason.
The biggest story of the season is under-reported…and could determine what happens the next few years
The WNBA’s two seasons of incredible, new-found popularity have upended a lot of previous discussions about how much revenue share, media rights, free agency, balance and control for both the league’s top corporate promoters and players should share. Three years ago, every side knew the gradually rising popularity would guarantee more rights and proper funding from the owners and league’s front office. It probably wouldn’t have been as bitter a fight given how all sides knew there was a lot at stake for the league.
Gone are those days. Commissioner Cathy Engelbert’s timid ineptitude at every level of attempting to run an increasingly popular sport continues to hold the league back, even against the wishes of various owners. The players now have more support from the public, partly due to the talented bigger names recently added to the league the last few seasons. Right now, the impasse could be similar to the 2011 NFL CBA talks and what led to lockouts in the NHL back in 2004 and 2012. It may be devastating for the WNBA to have a partial or full lockout after the league has grown this much the last three years.
Now, it’s time for the monthly power rankings. These show where all 13 teams currently stand. Some teams will have tiebreakers based on how they could perform on a neutral site.
#13 Connecticut Sun (last ranking: 13)
Future Hall of Fame center Tina Charles was asked if she considers retirement after 2025. The 15 year veteran responded that she thinks about it everyday. If Charles didn’t consider it before signing with Connecticut last offseason, she definitely has each game with the Sun.
#12 Dallas Wings (last ranking: 12)
Paige Bueckers will easily win rookie of the year. She leads Dallas in points per game (almost three more than her dangerous scorer teammate Arike Ogunbowale), assists and steals. Opposing defenses already struggle to defend Bueckers. If the Wings can add more help at forward and center in the offseason, there might not be a limit to Paige Bueckers’ game.
#11 Los Angeles Sparks (last ranking: 10)
The move to cut forward Satou Sabally after the last rankings was published was weird. Although the move didn’t spark too much of a change, the Sparks remain difficult to read. They cannot get past Chicago but can beat Indiana and a resurgent Washington. I guess when the mentality is to outscore the other team with little defense, it simplifies things.
#10 Chicago Sky (last ranking: 11)
Chicago’s two wins over Los Angeles and a throwaway loss against Atlanta gives them the top ten edge. The loss against the Dream has only one major takeaway: if Ariel Atkins and Angel Reese are out, center Kamilla Cardoso has to play better and be the main star. Cardoso is the highest drafted player on the Sky and was out-hustled by 12 year veteran Brittney Griner the entire game. Perhaps there was some exhaustion given how Cardoso came back from the AmeriCup tournament, but she can’t have another performance like that as the star again.
#9 Golden State Valkyries (last ranking: 7)
Some readers probably thought I was too harsh with the WNBA’s newest team starting off well and how it wouldn’t last, but I wasn’t wrong. The Valkyries are 1-5 in their July games. Fortunately, Golden State finishes the month with Dallas, Connecticut and Atlanta. If they don’t win two of the three, August could be worse.
#8 Las Vegas Aces (last ranking: 8)
Yikes, what a drop! Vegas went from the WNBA’s top team for two years to a three way tie with Indiana and Washington for the 6-8 spot in the rankings.
If the Aces miss the playoffs, missing out on signing DeWanna Bonner after she was waived by the Fever will be a big reason. Center A’ja Wilson is going to have to drag Vegas through five games to end July and she’ll need all the available help. It will be difficult for her to be at 100% all of August.
#7 Indiana Fever (last ranking: 6)
The only reason Indiana hasn’t cratered is because of their bench scoring. Guards Sophie Cunningham, Aari McDonald and forward Damiris Dantas have been underrated in how the Fever steal wins from quality teams like Atlanta. Whether healthy or injured, franchise star point guard Caitlin Clark has cost Indiana a better season. She has a lot to work on by next year or there may be some uncomfortable conversations.
#6 Washington Mystics (last ranking: 9)
Amazing what a year can do for a team. Washington started off the 2024 season winless after one month of play. One year later they’re in the best position to start August on a playoff run against the more favored Aces and Fever. While rookies Sonia Citron and Kiki Iriafen will make more mistakes during this run, guard Brittney Sykes and center Stefanie Dolson should cancel a good number of them out with their production and drive. Serious basketball fans must watch the Mystics soon.
#5 Atlanta Dream (last ranking: 4)
If we eliminate the easy home win against Chicago, Atlanta has lost three of their last four games. Probably the best example of what the Dream can’t afford to do is what happened in their July 12th loss to Indiana. All-Stars Allisha Gray and Brionna Jones combined for 12 points, seven rebounds and three assists. Atlanta’s best players were embarrassed by a younger, more determined Fever. They can’t afford to lose games against teams fighting to clinch lower playoff seeds.
#4 Seattle Storm (last ranking: 5)
Seattle is a dark horse to reach and win the WNBA finals. Like Los Angeles, they have been inconsistent in a July split with Connecticut, wins against Minnesota and losses versus Golden State. If the Storm can get on a roll and not be a mystery box every night, this could be the most dangerous team this postseason.
#3 New York Liberty (last ranking: 3)
It took a longer time than expected for New York to play at a high level without center Jonquel Jones for a month. Her return this week and the recent signing of veteran champion forward Emma Meesseman will make the Liberty a more fun and interesting team to watch. No matter what happens this week, their first game of the season against Minnesota will be must-watch t.v.
#2 Phoenix Mercury (last ranking: 2)
I had Phoenix at number one until both Kahleah Copper and Satou Sabally went down with leg and ankle injuries. The timing of signing DeWanna Bonner couldn’t have been better. Bonner not only comes off the bench and plays solid minutes, but she’s easing in as a starter before the playoffs start. This potential run could mean a lot for the Mercury given what veteran forwards Alyssa Thomas and Sabally said about the incoming lockout becoming more real (the latter going as far as calling the league’s new proposal, “a slap to the face”).
#1 Minnesota Lynx (last ranking: 1)
For anyone questioning why Minnesota remains number one, consider they played eight games in 13 days before the All-Star break and won six. The rest came at the best time for the Lynx. One thing Minnesota can add by next month is a center or quality rebounder. If the Lynx can find or trade for one, they will be the unquestionable favorite to win the championship.
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