The 2025-2026 NFL regular season is over. Seven teams in each conference have a chance to win the Vince Lombardi championship trophy. For those unfamiliar with the updated playoff format, an extra team was added. That means there’s one bye week for the top seeded team in each conference and a Monday night playoff game. Everyone wants to know which three teams in the AFC advance to the divisional round, so here are the best picks come Sunday.
#6 Buffalo Bills v. #3 Jacksonville Jaguars
Wild card weekend in the AFC starts with a bang. Buffalo’s run game has been one of the NFL’s best. It will face a challenge against Jacksonville’s number one running defense. The Jaguars defense is also top three in interceptions and the front seven does a great job of getting to opposing quarterbacks.
The Bills have a lot of pressure to make both the conference finals and Super Bowl. Jacksonville’s on an eight game winning streak playing their best, carefree football. Head coach Sean McDermott will have to figure out how to get Buffalo’s first ever postseason win against the Jaguars, and the Bills first road playoff win since 1992 with an undermanned defense and a thin receiver core.
Prediction: Jaguars win 31-21
#7 Los Angeles Chargers v. #2 New England Patriots
The easiest pick of either conference. New England is the healthier, better coached team and doesn’t play down to the competition. Head coach Mike Vrabel will expose the offensive line woes Los Angeles faced all regular season. Drake Maye’s playoff debut won’t be perfect, but he won’t have to worry about a tough loss with the head coach, defense and running backs taking the pressure off of him in this matchup.
Prediction: Patriots win 34-23
#5 Houston Texans v. #4 Pittsburgh Steelers
This could be the best game in either conference. The return of wide receiver D.K. Metcalf after a two game suspension will open up Pittsburgh’s passing game. Unfortunately for the Steelers, they’re playing a top three defense that features a deep, elite secondary. Houston’s eight defensive backs are dangerous and they shut down one-on-one matchups like it’s practice.
Pittsburgh also lacks a strong running game. The Texans defense could turn this into a blowout if the Steelers can’t find a way to run the ball. While Houston’s offense will struggle with Pittsburgh’s defense, their issues won’t matter if the Steelers offense doesn’t do anything right. It might not matter how many points the Texans offense scores.
Prediction: Texans win 19-6
2025 AFC playoffs prediction record: 4-3
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