2025 AFC Conference Championship Playoff Pick

Three games remain. Four teams with two in each conference. The remaining two in the AFC are the east winning Buffalo Bills and the west division winning and conference leading Kansas City Chiefs. Both teams have fast offenses, star quarterbacks, elite defenses, and bright-minded veteran head coaches. Time to determine who will advance to the Super Bowl.

#2 Buffalo Bills v. #1 Kansas City Chiefs

Despite Patrick Mahomes’ success in the postseason, Bills quarterback Josh Allen will be the most important player.

Seen as the more exciting of the two Sunday games, the Bills were the only team to beat Kansas City in the regular season playing all their starters. Buffalo’s lopsided home win boosted confidence for a future re-match. However the Chiefs have home-field advantage and will give Buffalo’s offense plenty of communication problems.

While many see this as another round of the elite quarterback rivalry between Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes II, the more important factors will be time of possession and which team runs the ball better. Kansas City has the offensive and defensive line advantages, a better running game, and a better playoff savvy receiver core. These factors should give the Chiefs the time of possession advantage. Kansas City remembers the mid-November beatdown in Highmark Stadium and wouldn’t mind giving the Bills their fourth straight head-to-head playoff loss in the last five years. It wouldn’t be a first for Buffalo.

Prediction: Chiefs win the AFC championship 31-21 and advance to Super Bowl LIX

AFC divisional round playoff picks record: 1-1

2025 AFC playoff picks record: 3-2

2025 AFC Divisional Round Playoff Picks

Wildcard weekend wasn’t competitive in the AFC. Baltimore, Houston and Buffalo dominated their games and won with few scares. Just like last year’s divisional round, the remaining four (the Kansas City Chiefs had a week off) teams have a great shot at getting to both the conference championship and the Super Bowl. Even with an inexperienced Texans team remaining, no team is an easy out. It’s time to pick which two teams have the best chance of making the next round.

#4 Houston Texans v. #1 Kansas City Chiefs

Houston’s defense has to play their best game of the season and limit quarterback Patrick Mahomes’ mobility.

The easiest matchup in either conference. Kansas City won the regular season meeting on the winter solstice. While most of the Chiefs starters on offense and defense will play their first game in three weeks, they should pick up where they left off after week 17. Kansas City’s offense played better until they clinched the one seed, and head coach Andy Reid is phenomenal after a bye week. Houston needs a strong start to keep pace, but will struggle with wide receiver Tank Dell out the rest of the year.

Prediction: Chiefs win 34-21

#3 Baltimore Ravens v. #2 Buffalo Bills

Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson could shred Buffalo’s defense again Sunday afternoon.

This matchup could determine who wins league MVP. This time Buffalo plays at home and the defense is fully healthy. Both starting quarterback Lamar Jackson and runningback Derrick Henry must play their best game of the season in 23 degree weather.

Although Baltimore and Buffalo played each other Sunday night in week four, the result could be the same. Wide receiver Zay Flowers may not play due to a knee injury, but he had one catch for ten yards in the Ravens September rout. Jackson threw three touchdowns and Derrick Henry had over 200 all-purpose yards. The Bills defense may have stars like defensive end Greg Rousseau and middle linebacker Matt Milano, but tackling the heavy and quick Henry in freezing temperatures is a tall task. Buffalo’s offense will also have a lot of pressure to score every possession against an improved Baltimore defense. The Ravens could put this game away early in the second half.

Prediction: 42-24

AFC wildcard weekend picks record: 2-1

NFL Week 14 Winners and Losers

The fourteenth week of the regular season eliminated teams from playoff contention and solidified division leaders. The postseason is a month away and most franchises are getting ready for a higher playoff seed or the offseason. Time to break down this weekends winners and losers.

Winners: Zach Charbonnet

Seattle went into Sunday without starting runningback Kenneth Walker III and played their second game against Arizona in three weeks. Not only did that put more pressure on starting quarterback Geno Smith to get creative and throw for more yards behind a young offensive line, it was a test for the runningbacks to get more positive yardage against a Cardinals defense that’s improved each week.

Charbonnet had his best game of the season and led Seattle to a 30-18 road win. He ran 22 times for 134 yards and two touchdowns. Charbonnet’s second score was a 51 yard run in the second quarter. That gave the Seahawks their first double digit lead of the afternoon.

One of the best parts of Zach Charbonnet’s breakout game was how he adapted. The offensive line did well and created open holes, but the backup runningback created a lot of problems for Arizona’s defensive front with his agility and creativity. Charbonnet’s big game led Seattle to their third divisional win of the season and shows coach Mike Macdonald can count on him in must-win games.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I wrote on here back in August that Atlanta or Tampa Bay would win the NFC south in a close race. December would be the month we’d see which team pulls away. It’s safe to say after Sunday the Buccaneers should be the team that wins the south.

Tampa Bay rolled over Las Vegas in a 28-13 home win. Quarterback Baker Mayfield completed 18 of 29 passes for 295 yards, three touchdowns, two interceptions and a 101.9 quarterback rating. Mayfield started hot and played his best on the Buccaneers last scoring drive, throwing his third touchdown to receiver Jalen McMillan.

When Raiders kicker Daniel Carlson made a field goal to cut Tampa’s lead to four, the Buccaneers defense knocked out quarterback Aidan O’Connell and played tighter defense. Tykee Smith’s interception off an O’Connell pass late in the third quarter eliminated any chance of Vegas getting their third win of the year.

It got better for the Buccaneers when Minnesota pulled away in the second half versus the Falcons and won 42-21. Tampa Bay is now in sole possession of first place of the NFC south. Both rivals have one team with a winning record each on their schedules, but that one game advantage after yesterday gives the Buccaneers the edge.

Byron Murphy Jr.’s one handed interception against Kirk Cousins

Speaking of Minnesota, their win wasn’t the only impressive feat against Atlanta.

Cornerback Byron Murphy Jr. had a fabulous, one handed interception against Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins with six minutes left in the fourth quarter. One would’ve thought he was the receiver if the uniforms weren’t different. Down 14, Atlanta had a chance to score and cut the Vikings lead to seven. That would’ve forced Minnesota to play smart and wear down Atlanta’s defense.

Murphy Jr’s sixth interception of the season sealed a Vikings win. He also downed the ball in the endzone, giving Minnesota enough room to start another scoring drive. That’s a play no one will forget anytime soon.

Losers: Will Levis

Tennessee had an opportunity to build offensive confidence, beat a division rival that’s almost quit the regular season, and give fans some hope. None of that happened in a home loss to Jacksonville.

Tennessee entered the fourth quarter against the Jaguars with six points. Starting quarterback Will Levis struggled against a defense that can’t stop deep-field threats and mobile quarterbacks. Levis excels in both areas, but went 19 of 32 for 168 yards.

The two most important drives of the game after Jacksonville took a four point lead turned into turnover on downs. Levis completed only short passes after Calvin Ridley’s 30 yard catch and run on the first play of the penultimate drive. His three straight, forced incompletions led to the Jaguars getting their third win of the season.

It’s been a wild year for Will Levis. His inability to get the Titans more wins due to his drop in play at serious moments validates the views he’s not a quarterback who can lead a franchise to at least a division title.

Buffalo Bills

Many sports pundits will harp on MVP front-runner Josh Allen’s amazing gamestats and laud Buffalo for only losing by two points to a playoff contender. The comeback and stats are ok, but losing on the road to a Rams team they were favored to beat makes the Bills one of Sundays biggest losers.

For one of the few times this season, Buffalo’s corners were outplayed as Los Angeles receivers Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua did whatever they wanted for four quarters. The receiving duo combined for 17 catches, 254 yards and two touchdowns. When Kupp and Nacua weren’t shredding the Bills secondary, runningback Kyren Williams ran through Buffalo’s front seven with little resistance.

The loss is a step back for the Bills after they beat Kansas City and trailed them for the one seed by one loss. Buffalo is now the third seed in the AFC and would draw Baltimore on wildcard weekend if the standings stay the same. The Ravens pummeled the Bills early in the season and they have the better roster and coaching staff. There’s little chance Buffalo gets the one seed if Kansas City goes into Pittsburgh on Christmas and wins. That could hurt the heads of the same people going crazy over empty stats in a two point loss.

Thomas Brown’s coaching debut

What a circus in Chicago. Bears players and staff members wanted former coach Matt Eberflus fired after complaints of poor leadership and not wanting to win after a jaw-dropping Thanksgiving loss in Detroit. One would think that firing would’ve given Chicago a better chance to win, especially since their next opponent was a battered 49ers team on the road. Talk about wishful thinking.

It was a lopsided loss in San Francisco and the Bears didn’t score until the game was out of reach midway through the third quarter. Interim coach Thomas Brown had a week and a half to prepare Chicago against a depleted 49ers roster and a head coach that could be traded next year. At one point in the first half, San Francisco had 310 yards on offense while the Bears had two. The score made people wonder if the 49ers All-Pro offense was fully healthy.

There’s one month of Chicago football left and that might be too long for any serious fan. Brown has four games left to show why he can be a head coach. Unfortunately they’re all against playoff favorites, (three are against division rivals). It’s also possible Chicago considers another full roster rebuild if things look worse by January.