The 2024-25 NBA regular season ended in anticipation of a thrilling western conference playoff race. MVP front-runner Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder are favorites to make a deep run to the championship while the young Rockets want to prove they can compete and beat the best veteran teams. No one should underestimate the resurgence of Golden State or of either Los Angeles team. Denver remains the team everyone wants out in order to have a fair chance at the finals. Four talented squads will advance to the second round. Time to break down which four have the best chance.
#8 Memphis Grizzlies v. #1 Oklahoma City Thunder
Memphis will put up a fight, but Oklahoma City’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is too much for the Grizzlies guards.
This should be one of the most fun first round series. Memphis and Oklahoma City have great guard and forward duos. Both teams have roster depth the remaining six western teams covet. Despite their similarities, there’s a clear winner here.
The Grizzlies have the players to double-team MVP favorite guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Should Memphis stick to that game-plan, the Thunder will let guards Alex Caruso and Luguentz Dort take more shots and chances to lead the offense. Oklahoma City also has the advantage at center with Isaiah Hartenstein and Jaylin Williams over the Grizzlies Zach Edey.
Prediction: Thunder win series 4-2
#6 Minnesota Timberwolves v. #3 Los Angeles Lakers
There’s a lot of pressure on Minnesota guard Anthony Edwards to repeat last year’s postseason run to the conference finals.
There are a lot of fun storylines and history both teams share. Los Angeles revamped their roster mid-season while Minnesota upgraded theirs last offseason. Both teams have great guards and forwards. Even depth scoring and coaching have improved since the All-Star break.
The Lakers do have the better point-guard matchup with Luka Doncic over Mike Conley. Although Doncic and veteran forward LeBron James play great in the regular season, they elevate their performances once the postseason starts. Timberwolves shooting guard Anthony Edwards will keep the series close, but he can’t do it all by himself.
Prediction: Lakers win series 4-2
#7 Golden State Warriors v. #2 Houston Rockets
No matter what happens in this matchup, this will be the series in which Rockets guard Jalen Green (4) takes the next step in being a franchise star player.
One could not find a worse first round matchup for Houston if they tried. Golden State is 4-0 all-time in playoff series against the Rockets and has the second best league record since the trade deadline. While Houston is the best rebounding team and plays well around the basket, they’re ill-equipped to handle the Warriors exceptional shooting and improved all-around play. Coach Ime Udoka will use every tactic available to keep the series close, but there is only so much he can do before point guard Steph Curry and forward Jimmy Butler III take over and dominate game pace.
Prediction: Warriors win series 4-1
#5 Los Angeles Clippers v. #4 Denver Nuggets
Two of the NBA’s best players in Nikola Jokic and Kawhi Leonard are fully healthy. That makes for the best first round series this postseason.
This is the best first round series in either conference. Los Angeles is fully healthy and Denver has played better since coach Michael Malone was fired. Not only is MVP candidate Nikola Jokic fun to watch, it will be interesting to see how star forward Kawhi Leonard counters him on defense. Clippers guards James Harden and Kris Dunn will have a hard time defending Nuggets guards Jamal Murray and Russell Westbrook. Los Angeles center Ivica Zubac is a good counter to forward Aaron Gordon.
If there are weaknesses on either team, it’s bench depth. Both franchises have great starters, but at some point Los Angeles has to rest theirs given how each has previous injury concerns. Denver can substitute their starters without worrying how it’ll take a toll on the team later in the postseason.
Prediction: Nuggets win series 4-2
Regular season western conference playoffs and play-in predictions record: 5-4
The first round was exciting and fun. Minnesota shockingly swept Phoenix. Denver barely led most of their four wins against the Lakers. Dallas and the Clippers had an entertaining series. Oklahoma City had no playoff jitters as they confidently swept the more experienced Pelicans. The Thunder and Mavericks will show viewers how close they are to becoming complete teams while Denver and Minnesota have the best second round matchup in either conference. Two of the remaining four teams will advance to the next round. Time to break down which of the two have the best chance to make the conference finals.
#5 Dallas Mavericks v. #1 Oklahoma City Thunder
Dallas and Oklahoma City have great guard duos. Forward and center play will determine who wins this series.
The Mavericks and Thunder have many similarities but many differences. They have great starting guards who score at will. They have young, dangerous centers starting to find their rhythm on both sides of the ball. Dallas and Oklahoma City also have starting forwards facing a lot of pressure to defend well and score better. Both coaches also know how to get the best out of their improving rosters.
The differences are in expectations. The Mavericks face growing pressure to make a championship run with star guard duo Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving playing their best basketball these last three months. The Thunder’s starting five is the youngest in the league and hasn’t faced adversity in the postseason. Doncic and Irving have enough experience to help center Daniel Gafford, and forwards P.J. Washington and Derrick Jones Jr. gain advantages on Oklahoma City’s center Chet Holmgren, and forwards Jalen Williams and Luguentz Dort. It will be interesting to see how both teams counter each other’s strengths and styles.
Prediction: Mavericks win series 4-2
#3 Minnesota Timberwolves v. #2 Denver Nuggets
Guards Jamal Murray (blue) and Anthony Edwards (white) will have one of the best series of their careers.
This could be the best NBA playoff series of 2024. Minnesota and Denver have split their last two regular season series and have the right players to counter each other. This could be the only Denver series we see a one-on-one matchup on Nikola Jokic, as he’ll be guarded by Timberwolves center Rudy Gobert.
Nuggets guard duo Jamal Murray and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope have as much skill as Timberwolves guard duo Mike Conley and Anthony Edwards. You could go as far to say Conley’s experience and better defense presents a problem for Denver. Since Gobert can do what most teams can’t and cover Jokic by himself, Minnesota can double cover Caldwell-Pope or Murray (depending on who’s playing better each game). Roster depth will be more important since Sixth Man of the Year winner Naz Reid can play well at both power forward and center for the Timberwolves, and Nuggets guard Reggie Jackson can play both sides of the ball well when Murray rests.
The winner of this series will be decided on the play of Minnesota star forward Karl-Anthony Towns against Denver forward Aaron Gordon. Gordon’s played better each postseason series since he was traded to the Nuggets in 2021. He can play physical on both sides of the ball and is a consistent rebounding threat. Towns is a great three point shooter, but his rebounding and preference of playing away from the basket and interior poses a problem Denver can exploit further into the series.
Prediction: Nuggets win series 4-3
First round western conference playoff predictions: 2-2
The 2023-24 NBA regular season ended in anticipation for a thrilling western conference playoff race. MVP runner-up Nikola Jokic and the Nuggets are the favorites to make a deep run to the championship while the young Thunder and Timberwolves want to prove they can compete and beat the best veteran teams left. No one should underestimate the resurgence of New Orleans, and Phoenix is still the team everyone wants out in order for a fair chance at the finals. Four talented squads will advance to the second round. Time to break down which four have the best chance.
#7 Los Angeles Lakers v. #2 Denver Nuggets
Fans are blessed with another LeBron v. Jokic series, but it could mirror last year’s lopsided results after Denver’s game one win.
The easiest series out west. Nikola Jokic is an MVP front runner and his supporting cast of Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon, Michael Porter Jr. and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope outmatch LeBron James, Anthony Davis and D’Angelo Russell. Lakers coach Darvin Ham struggled to adjust against Jokic and Denver’s offense in every second half of their regular season games. Don’t expect that to change in the series.
Prediction: Nuggets win series 4-0
#8 New Orleans Pelicans v. #1 Oklahoma City Thunder
If New Orleans wants to drag Oklahoma City into a long series, point-guard CJ McCollum (3) has to be their top playmaker.
Similar to Miami versus Boston in the east, New Orleans is without their star franchise player this series. Unlike the Heat, the Pelicans have a good amount of scoring depth to make their first round series fun. They’re also fortunate the west’s number one seed is both in their first playoff series and as young as the University of North Carolina’s basketball team.
If New Orleans has any chance of taking advantage of Oklahoma City’s young starting five, the veteran starters have to be their best players each game. Point-guard CJ McCollum has been phenomenal in previous playoff series, but he needs to get out of his scoring slump. Shooting guard Brandon Ingram and center Jonas Valanciunas can add more on offense and help slow down Thunder center Chet Holmgren and guards Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey.
The number one seeded Thunder had a top three offense, but their youth will make this a longer series compared to a more experienced team like Denver or Phoenix. The Pelicans are desperate to stay in the playoffs long enough for franchise star Zion Williamson to return. It might not be enough to slow down a resurgent and determined team coached by Mark Daigneault.
Prediction: Thunder win series 4-2
#5 Dallas Mavericks v. #4 Los Angeles Clippers
Los Angeles forward duo Paul George and Kawhi Leonard will be a great counter to Dallas guard duo Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving.
This was the first clinched matchup before the regular season ended. The series stars are Los Angeles forward duo Paul George and Kawhi Leonard, while Dallas counters with guard duo Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving.
Two factors will determine the winner: coaching and which team can slow down the other’s elite duo. James Harden, Russell Westbrook and Terance Mann can counter Doncic and Irving with how their offensive playmaking, but P.J. Washington Jr. and Daniel Gafford might struggle against George and Leonard if this series goes more than five games.
Coaching favors Tyronn Lue over Jason Kidd. Lue’s been in harder situations ranging from championship finals experience to roster depth issues in previous playoff rounds. His adjustments will determine how many games the Clippers can beat Dallas.
Prediction: Clippers win series 4-2
#6 Phoenix Suns v. #3 Minnesota Timberwolves
If Phoenix wants to replicate their regular season success against Minnesota, they must attack the interior early and often.
The Suns dominated the Timberwolves during the regular season. Yet Minnesota looks different with guard Anthony Edwards and center Rudy Gobert elevating the team’s nightly performances.
There’s no doubt Phoenix forward Kevin Durant will play some of his best postseason basketball, but he’ll need more help from guards Devin Booker and Bradley Beal, forward Grayson Allen and center Jusuf Nurkic. The Timberwolves match up well against Phoenix’s starting five. Point guard Mike Conley and center Naz Reid bring the needed veteran presence and scoring depth. It depends on how franchise star Karl-Anthony Towns continues to ease back into heavy minutes and if he comes off the bench compared to his regular starting role. If Towns continues coming in from the bench like he did in game one, Phoenix will have a hard time winning the series.
Prediction: Suns win series 4-2
Regular season western conference playoffs prediction record: 5-3
(From left to right) Chet Holmgren, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jaylin Williams and Jalen Williams are the young core that could lead Oklahoma City to a dominant run similar to the one from the 2010s.
The NBA finals are played in June and the victor of the series wins the championship. Champagne is sprayed, confetti falls and the winning team has bragging rights for almost a year with their trophy and accolades. For many viewers, the other 29 teams will be viewed as failures for coming up short. Perhaps the viewers are right; the losing teams come up short with many regrets. Runner-ups in the conference championships don’t have enough to win a few more games. The other 26 are losers separated by a few weeks or months.
Some teams exceed expectations by not just one year, but more than two or three. Last year the Sacramento Kings brought joy out of casual viewers (probably because they snapped their two decades long playoff drought) because it was a different team in California dominating opponents for a division title. One might say this year’s Orlando Magic is similar due to their myriad of misfortune since 2010. Orlando is where they should be after years of rebuilding, but the Oklahoma City Thunder is further ahead in its rebuild than anyone thought. General manager Sam Presti has impressed the league with his decision-making, and basketball fans should (mostly) love the team’s upward direction.
There’s a lot to like with this team. Let’s start with the most basic for those not familiar with the NBA; the Thunder (as of this writing) are tied for first in both the northwest division and the western conference. Point-guard and rising league star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a top choice to win league MVP and rookie (sort of) center Chet Holmgren is a close second for the Rookie of the Year award. The guard duo of Gilgeous-Alexander and Josh Giddey are one of the league’s best back court threats despite their postseason inexperience.
Then there’s Jalen Williams. The sophomore leads Oklahoma City in fourth quarter scoring. He can make a three point shot or charge straight to the rim, offsetting defensive stops by opponents. His footwork, passing and vision are improving weekly, leaving many to wonder how high his ceiling is to stardom. Jalen Williams’ 19 points per game, four rebounds, four and a half assists and 54% shooting put him as one of six players in NBA history to accomplish this at the age of 22 or younger.
A team this young and inexperienced in the playoffs won’t win the championship in 2024. The veteran playoff teams are more likely to prove why in the later rounds, but it’s shocking to many how good Oklahoma City is when several saw them as a play-in prediction this year. Presti is a big part of that progress, trading away star veterans and accumulating the needed players and draft picks to build a better roster.
Presti’s roster moves make the Thunder a fascinating case for how to plan ahead for both the draft and the salary cap. Regarding the latter, the franchise isn’t spending money on big name free agents…at least not yet. ESPN front office insider Bobby Marks tweeted that Oklahoma City’s salary cap is predicted to be around $141 million after their season ends. Contract extensions for Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams don’t start until the 2026-2027 season. The team’s paying less than $95 million for a 13 man roster.
Several franchises aren’t just trying to get at the Thunder on the court, they are also playing catch-up against a team loaded with extra salary cap space, a young determined roster, and trade pieces that could upend the NBA and the winning process many organizations have used in past years. If there is an asterisk for Oklahoma City, it may be how shooting guard Josh Giddey is handled after the postseason. While Giddey’s statutory rape charges were dropped, the situation puts both him and the franchise in an uncertain place. The league could decide to step in after nothing was handled and strip the Thunder of some draft and cap assets. One does wonder how severe the punishment might be after eight months and no follow up.
That draft situation gets more interesting. In the last five years, Oklahoma City traded for picks of every round. The Thunder have three first round picks for the upcoming 2024 draft. Four of the current starting five players are first round picks who are 25 years old or younger. They also have three first round and two second round picks for 2025 and seven first round picks from 2027-2029 in case Williams, Holmgren and/or Gilgeous-Alexander sign max-contracts.
Unless the league’s front office decides what actions to take, it’s clear that after the champion of 2024 is crowned, the second winner of the 2023-2024 season is Oklahoma City.
General manager Sam Presti has a formula many teams in the league are trying to replicate. He’ll have the basketball world on edge the next few years.
Here are the NBA power rankings for March
#30 Washington Wizards (last ranking: 30)
It was difficult choosing who would have the last place rank on here. At least Detroit is showing progress and has some semblance of a future. Washington doesn’t have a quality coach or a developing franchise star. They do have Kyle Kuzma averaging 21 points a game, but that’s not something to brag about.
#29 Detroit Pistons (last ranking: 29)
Since play resumed, the Pistons are playing the way many expected before the regular season began. They’ve lost by more than ten points in three games, all to serious playoff contenders. While there are roster issues, there is progress before the season ends. That was unfathomable two months ago.
#28 Charlotte Hornets (last ranking: 28)
That four game winning streak did little to calm down serious analysts who noticed front office and upper management changes after the trade deadline. It’s possible the fresh faces decide to clean out the entire roster once the regular season ends. I don’t see anyone (including LaMelo Ball and Miles Bridges) staying with the new owner and general manager itching to start over.
#27 San Antonio Spurs (last ranking: 27)
Number one pick and league phenom Victor Wembanyama became the first player in NBA history to record 75+ made three-point shots, 150+ assists and 150+ blocks in a debut season. He accomplished all that before February ended. Wembanyama became the 15th NBA player to post the rare ‘5×5’ statline in a 123-118 loss to the Lakers last month, finishing that game with 27 points, ten rebounds, eight assists, five steals, and five blocks in the 31 minutes he played (since the league started keeping track of steals and blocks in 1973-1974). Last but not least, he is one of two players who has put up multiple triple-doubles in under 30 minutes of a game this season. The only other player who has done that is regular season MVP favorite and reigning finals MVP Nikola Jokic. Teams are starting to double-cover Wembanyama on defense due to his stellar offensive performances. He’ll be scarier when San Antonio adds better complimentary players.
#26 Portland Trailblazers (last ranking: 26)
Portland was one of two winless teams in February (the other being the Wizards). It’s the third time in NBA history two teams have accomplished that feat. Somehow, Chauncey Billups keeps his coaching job until the end of the season. It is obvious management doesn’t care about the regular season and the team doesn’t most nights. One has to wonder if the league will take notice and do something about it.
#25 Memphis Grizzlies (last ranking: 25)
Guard DeJon Jarreau is third on Memphis in assists and leads the team in rebounds and steals. The Grizzlies found a good player to keep developing until everyone returns healthy next season.
#24 Toronto Raptors (last ranking: 24)
Scottie Barnes is the only player in the NBA to lead his team in all stats (points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks). Toronto will miss the playoffs due to blown leads and playing down to their competition, but Barnes will be their biggest star. The Raptors have to keep building around him after the season ends.
#23 Brooklyn Nets (last ranking: 23)
Brooklyn decided the answer to the start of their awful 2024 was firing Jacque Vaughn. Vaughn was keeping the team alive in the play-in race most of the season. Only the Nets could fully implode after acquiring another “super team” roster. There really needs to be a study of what goes on at 15 MetroTech Center, Brooklyn.
#22 Utah Jazz (last ranking: 19)
The drop off continued after the last rankings but there is hope for the franchise moving forward. Utah has played hard since new ownership and management took over. That’s a great starting point because the team knows they can have a few good months and hover around the play-in bubble. The Jazz now have to find star players the next few years who will lead the team into the play-in.
#21 Atlanta Hawks (last ranking: 21)
A hilarious stat popped up near the end of February showing Atlanta finished 750-750 in their last 1,500 games. A team couldn’t achieve this level of mediocrity if they tried. Since that stat came out, the Hawks are 5-6, making them 755-756 in 1,511 games.
#20 Houston Rockets (last ranking: 22)
They probably won’t make the play-in bubble but the Rockets have improved after the last few seasons, mostly due to the coach-player duo of Ime Udoka and Alperen Sengun. Houston’s situation is similar to Oklahoma City where there’s a lot of draft capital and cap space. The only difference would be adding free agents to compete for a starting role. The Rockets will be interesting to watch the last month of the regular season due to where they place in the draft and how management wants to move forward with those assets.
#19 Chicago Bulls (last ranking: 20)
Since the Bulls have nothing interesting going on, it’s important and refreshing to see Lonzo Ball has finally been cleared for advanced rehab activities and is nearing a return to practice. General manager Marc Eversley has an important decision on what to do with Ball after the season ends. His choice will decide the direction of the franchise.
#18 Golden State Warriors (last ranking: 18)
Golden State’s end to the regular season depends on Stephen Curry’s ankle sprain. His ankle’s progressing quicker than expected but the Warriors have to be patient. If he returns for the Monday night game against the Knicks, the last spot for the play-in bubble will be Golden State’s to lose.
#17 Los Angeles Lakers (last ranking: 17)
We need to zoom out of the inconsistent play for a moment and realize no one else has scored 40,000 points in league history until LeBron James did this month. I don’t think we will see that surpassed within the next 40 years.
Back to the part with the inconsistent play. The hilarious part with James is how the Lakers have lost every recent milestone and memorable game since the return from COVID-19. It’s ironic given that when there are GOAT debates, we know who would not lose these highlighted games.
#16 Philadelphia 76ers (last ranking: 13)
Philadelphia won their first game of the season Sunday without either Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey in what was the lowest scoring contest of the season 79-73. The Sixers need perfect defense to remain in the playoff race and that’s not enough since they might draw Cleveland or Milwaukee in the first round (if they get past the play-in). Tobias Harris, Buddy Hield and P.J. Tucker must step up and compete for leading scorer each game whenever Maxey can’t play.
#15 Miami Heat (last ranking: 9)
Just like the last few months of the 2021-2022 season, injuries are taking a toll on Miami late in the season after a championship finals series loss the previous year. Unless Orlando slumps the last month of the regular season, expect Miami to make a play-in round appearance.
#14 Dallas Mavericks (last ranking: 12)
A post from NBA Memes earlier this week revealed an interesting fact: Kevin Durant led the 2011-2012 Oklahoma City Thunder to an NBA Finals appearance when he was 23, the same age star point guard Luka Doncic is now. We can talk about who else was on that Thunder team but let’s not forget LeBron James made it to his first finals appearance at 22. Yes the Mavericks had Jalen Brunson as a great second scoring option and failed to re-sign him multiple times, but many will question Doncic’s supposed “all-time great” legacy if Dallas doesn’t make a championship finals appearance in either the next few months or next year.
#13 Sacramento Kings (last ranking: 16)
If Sacramento wants to avoid the play-in round, they have to beat every opponent not threatening for the postseason and five of the next ten versus playoff favorites. This is why losses against Detroit, Houston and Chicago the last month and a half were pains. The Kings are in a better position to clinch one of the top six seeds in the west but haven’t capitalized on those chances.
#12 Indiana Pacers (last ranking: 14)
Despite the high octane offense, Bennedict Mathurin’s season ending shoulder injury could force Indiana to make the play-in yet miss out on a middle playoff seed. While he was their fourth leading scorer, having sophomore shooting-guard Andrew Nembhard immediately in the starting role throws off both the offense and defense. Coach Rick Carlisle must get creative the last month of the regular season.
#11 Phoenix Suns (last ranking: 11)
The cluttered standings in the western conference means any team could wind up getting the four to six seeds. I see Phoenix as a play-in team due to both their inconsistent play each month and their remaining schedule. The Suns have a brutal last month of the regular season lined up and it wouldn’t surprise me if one or two teams surpass them in the standings.
#10 Orlando Magic (last ranking: 15)
Sophomore and former number one overall pick Paolo Banchero is one of only four players the last 40 years (since 1983-84) to have career averages of 20+ points, 6+ rebounds and 4+ assists at age 21 or younger. The other three were Michael Jordan, LeBron James and Luka Doncic (via Magic_PR). The young Magic core plays the game right and doesn’t focus on making three-point shots most of the time. In fact, they’re 34-11 when they shoot 35 or less three-pointers, and 5-17 when they shoot more than 35. This will be a fun team to watch the rest of 2024.
#9 New York Knicks (last ranking: 8)
There isn’t a more relieved team by Philadelphia’s fall than New York. The Knicks have been mediocre at best since that fabulous January. They’re fortunate their schedule gets easie
r before April starts. If there’s little improvement the last two weeks of the regular season, they will show viewers how far they’ll go in the playoffs.
#8 New Orleans Pelicans (last ranking: 10)
New Orleans decided franchise star Zion Williamson should play point guard and the results are incredible. Minus a blowout home loss against Cleveland, Williamson averaged seven assists a game in those ten games (most of which he played point guard in) and the Pelicans went 7-3. It’s not just their best basketball of the season, they’re finally showing audiences how high the ceiling can be when everyone’s healthy.
#7 Los Angeles Clippers (last ranking: 2)
Los Angeles’ spotty play since the All-Star break has been a concern but the double digit loss at home to Minnesota on Tuesday puts the Clippers in a dangerous position. Not only did the Timberwolves come back from a 22 point deficit and win by 18, but Los Angeles lost franchise and hometown star Kawhi Leonard to a back injury for what looks like a few weeks. While the west is the tighter conference, the Clippers schedule shouldn’t let them fall too far down the standings. Keep an eye on how Los Angeles handles the end of the month.
#6 Cleveland Cavaliers (last ranking: 5)
Cleveland probably won’t win the central division due to some unnecessary losses at the end of February and the beginning of March (another team in their division is also looking better) but the Cavaliers are still the third seed in the east. Cleveland should remain a favorite to make round two of the postseason no matter who they draw in the first round (barring any injuries).
#5 Milwaukee Bucks (last ranking: 7)
The defense is slowly improving but I’m not sure how Milwaukee will perform in the later playoff rounds with Doc Rivers’ coaching. The Bucks could play their best basketball in April and use those changes to advance to the conference finals. It’s also possible Milwaukee’s defense is their downfall, especially if the offense stalls against a more defensive-minded team like New York or against division rivals Cleveland and Indiana.
#4 Oklahoma City Thunder (last ranking: 6)
It has been an incredible season for the franchise that many will forget Shai Gilgeous-Alexander finally surpassed Kevin Durant with the most 30+ point games in a season with 48 (Durant had 47 in both 2010 and 2014. Right now Gilgeous-Alexander has 49). He has 94 games averaging 30+ points in not even two full seasons. Gilgeous-Alexander is the player many thought Luka Doncic would be while making his teammates better.
#3 Minnesota Timberwolves (last ranking: 4)
My long-running gripe with this team was how they’d perform closer to the postseason with two well-paid big men in Karl-Anthony Towns and Rudy Gobert. Since Towns was sidelined with a left knee meniscus tear, Minnesota is a better team with Anthony Edwards as the star player and Rudy Gobert sticking to defense. The Timberwolves must go with this formula moving forward and find the right complimentary players for Edwards once their season is done.
#2 Boston Celtics (last ranking: 3)
I agree with TNT’s Charles Barkley that if Boston doesn’t win the championship this June, they won’t win it anytime soon. The Celtics’ starting five and their roster depth are too good to just make conference finals and championship finals appearances. There’s so much pressure on Boston to win another title that I’m not sure they can do it if an opponent is more at ease or better coached.
#1 Denver Nuggets (last ranking: 1)
MVP favorite Nikola Jokic became the third player all-time to record a triple-double against every team (joining LeBron James and Russell Westbrook) when he recorded a 21 point, 19 rebound and 15 assist statline against the Wizards on February 22nd. He’s the main reason the Nuggets are tied for first in both the northwest division and the western conference. It’s important to keep in mind if Denver gets the one seed, it will be harder for the rest of the conference to win more than two games in Ball Arena once the postseason begins. That will deflate most of the conference and drain any fun for the team that wins the eighth seed because the Nuggets will not lose four games to an undermanned play-in winner. It’s not good news for veteran teams Golden State, the Los Angeles teams or Phoenix.
MVP candidate Nikola Jokic (with ball) became the first player in NBA history to record a triple double of 15 (points, rebounds and assists), making all of his shots on the court during a 130-110 win against the Wizards February 22nd. He’s the most dangerous player the final month of the regular season.
What an interesting first half of the season. Most teams are close in the standings with good chances of making the NBA playoffs. The reigning champion Denver Nuggets feel pushback in their division and conference. The MVP race has a half dozen candidates while coaching remains inconsistent. The second half is set up for a fun, intense finish.
Here are some important topics and questions after the first half of the season.
It was a mistake for most of last year’s playoff contenders to not tank for Victor Wembanyama.
Victor Wembanyama (1, black) has the best coaches helping him through his first NBA season. He’ll easily win rookie of the year.
Remember last year’s season when almost every NBA team was fighting for a playoff spot before the All-Star break? The teams who had no shot at getting into the playoffs missed out on tanking for a one-of-a-kind talent in Victor Wembanyama. San Antonio has won a dozen games and will not see the postseason, but teams are finding it hard to guard and attack the rookie on both sides of the ball. His dunk over 6’10 Marvin Bagley III showcases his intimidating height and talent over the average player. Someone this big, athletic and threatening make teams such as Washington, New Orleans and Detroit regret not tanking for the draft sooner (funny how all three are also the league’s worst teams right now).
Last season there was conversation on reducing the number of games. The league’s done the opposite and added more with an in-season tournament. Will this add to the concerns more players will suffer more long-term injuries?
No one is having more injuries than Memphis. They had eleven players out on January 29th’s game against Sacramento and lost by double digits because of limited available talent.
Last year’s league MVP Joel Embiid is probably out for the rest of the season after ignoring a nagging leg injury because of national pressure he play in as many games possible. While it’s a blow to Philadelphia, nothing compares to what the Grizzlies have gone through the first half of the season. Memphis entered October with franchise star Ja Morant on suspension. He returned in late autumn and gave the team a spark, but he suffered a tear in his right shoulder on a Saturday practice. Desmond Bane, former Grizzly Steven Adams and at least eight other players on the roster have missed time due to injuries. It peaked when 13 players were ruled out for a game at Boston this month against the Celtics. Memphis had no chance and lost by 40.
If the league wants to expand play and add more games and tournaments, then they have to let teams increase roster space and expect more injuries to star players to dent their ratings at some point during the year. It doesn’t seem most of the approved rules were well thought out.
Just as was written in the NHL first half analysis article, there are at least a half dozen candidates for MVP in this year’s NBA season. Who has the best chance to win the award (unless injuries plague the nominees)?
Oklahoma City’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2, blue) is a frontrunner to win MVP this season. The Thunder are second in the western conference due to his play and leadership.
You could go even further and say almost ten players could be in the MVP race due to how close most teams are in the standings. Anthony Edwards and Tyrese Haliburton are fringe candidates, but they could gather more interest if Minnesota and Indiana continue stunning audiences. They’re also on the outside due to spectacular play from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Nikola Jokic and Luka Doncic.
While the latter three names will probably remain the favorites, LeBron James, Kawhi Leonard, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jayson Tatum and Donovan Mitchell stand out in unique ways that will keep this a closer race. Some of the candidates will be considered due to the changes in MVP voting this year. We’ll find out which names will be favored more by Easter.
Here’s the second ever NBA power rankings on jdsportscorner.com. These show where all 30 teams objectively stand. Some teams will have tiebreakers based off of how they’d perform on a neutral site.
#30 Washington Wizards (last ranking: 29)
If there’s any team that could’ve tanked more for Victor Wembanyama last year, it should have been Washington. The defense would be better and the offense would be in the top ten with his rebounding. He also could’ve been their second player averaging over 20 points a game. The Wizards will regret that decision for the next two decades.
#29 Detroit Pistons (last ranking: 30)
The Pistons are slowly getting better since January. They’ve collected five wins the last month of play and had their first winning streak last week. The trade deadline helped them get some future assets but there’s still a lot of work to be done.
#28 Charlotte Hornets (last ranking: 28)
You know a team’s bad midway through a season when the only major news doesn’t involve players, but management and executive hirings. While new owners Rick Schnall and Gabe Plotkin were going to make changes after grading current management, the early changes signal how bad it’s been top to bottom.
#27 San Antonio Spurs (last ranking: 27)
Can you imagine if San Antonio didn’t trade Dejounte Murray to Atlanta in 2022? Another key player would probably have Wembanyama in a better position to score more and not defend as hard every night despite his smooth transition into the league. The Spurs should have kept another player averaging 20 points a game and someone to maybe consider trading for better players in the future. Instead the franchise will have to eliminate most of the roster for nothing once the regular season ends.
#26 Portland Trail Blazers (last ranking: 26)
I have no idea how Chauncey Billups wasn’t fired after that choke to Detroit at home on the eighth. The Blazers shouldn’t have lost after a 49 point performance from Jerami Grant. Portland’s lost every game this month after winning in Milwaukee. Talk about a sharp decline.
#25 Memphis Grizzlies (last ranking: 25)
As of this publishing, Memphis has lost nine of their last eleven. It’s a disappointing season for the Grizzlies but the only positive is finding quality depth players for next season for when star players need the rest after solid performances.
#24 Toronto Raptors (last ranking: 24)
The Raptors are five games out of a play-in spot and it’s because they’ve lost to inferior opponents or blown double digit leads. Losses to Memphis, Detroit, Charlotte, Oklahoma City and division rivals Boston and New York are the differences in having an extra week of play. This will be a good theme to keep up with the following months to see how Toronto makes a push for the postseason.
#23 Brooklyn Nets (last ranking: 21)
Brooklyn’s won one more game than the Pistons since 2024 began. Curious on how that’s slipped serious basketball conversations.
#22 Houston Rockets (last ranking: 19)
Despite Steven Adams done for the season with a PCL injury, one should like Houston trading for him. The roster is young and needs more veteran leadership, even if those veterans can’t play. We’ll see how it pays off next season.
#21 Atlanta Hawks (last ranking: 23)
It’s fitting the Hawks flips with the Nets after last power rankings. Since that publishing they’ve had winning streaks of three, four and two. They’ve beaten the playoff hopeful Magic, Heat, Lakers, Suns, Warriors and 76ers. They also lost close games to the Mavericks and Clippers. Atlanta could get hotter after the All-Star break.
#20 Chicago Bulls (last ranking: 20)
The mediocre Bulls did nothing at the trade deadline and just…sit at ninth in the east.
#19 Utah Jazz (last ranking: 17)
After winning eight of nine games to start 2024 the Jazz are 4-10 in their last 14. The All-Star break couldn’t have come at a better time. If Utah doesn’t finish February strong, there could be a steeper drop off.
#18 Golden State Warriors (last ranking: 22)
The most baffling part of Klay Thompson’s slump is how he’s still the team’s second leading scorer with 17 points a game. If Golden State moves forward with having Thompson coming off the bench, that’s fine. It’s more important Jonathan Kuminga continues his growth as a reliable scorer. Kuminga’s a reason for the Warriors resurgence.
#17 Los Angeles Lakers (last ranking: 18)
The Lakers played nervous during the trade deadline. Since the deadline passed Los Angeles is playing arguably their best basketball of the season, losing only to the reigning champion Nuggets this month. The next power rankings in March could reveal how dangerous this team is in the west.
#16 Sacramento Kings (last ranking: 9)
One has to wonder if the Kings peaked too soon last year. That dominant division-winning season put a target on their back and it seems to be taking a toll. Sacramento in the bottom half of the league in rebounds despite starting Domantas Sabonis, Keegan Murray and Harrison Barnes at center and both forward positions. It’s also possible they need the rest despite the number of players in their prime ages. Coach Mike Brown’s great at getting the best out of his players, so we won’t find out their trajectory until next month.
#15 Orlando Magic (last ranking: 15)
No matter what happens, it’s been a memorable season for the Magic. While they did retire Shaquille O’Neal’s jersey (the first number retired in franchise history), there’s been a lot more progress on the court. They’re tied for first in the southeast with Miami. A Florida rivalry is brewing and it’s possible Orlando wins the division due to their young core having more energy and positive inexperience. If the Magic win the division and clinch the fifth or sixth seed, it would be very interesting to see how a team like Milwaukee or the Knicks fare against a team with nothing to lose.
#14 Indiana Pacers (last ranking: 12)
How is coach Rick Carlisle doing this? Indiana’s tied for first in points per game (124) and field goal percentage (51%) while being the second worst rebounding team in the league. It’s unsustainable for the second half of the season but the Pacers are defying expectations on every level.
#13 Philadelphia 76ers (last ranking: 3)
What a blow to the 76ers championship aspirations. I’m not a doctor but Embiid’s lateral meniscus injury probably ends his season and with it Philadelphia’s hopes for a deep playoff run another year. If there’s any positive, it’s finding out how good Nick Nurse will be coaching a deflated team that knows they’re outmatched almost every game.
#12 Dallas Mavericks (last ranking: 14)
The Sixers tumble means a lot of teams will rise and stay clustered in the top 15 that normally wouldn’t have a chance.
That said, Dallas has played better since February began. They’ve lost only one of their last seven. Backup center Daniel Gafford is becoming a reliable option on both offense and defense. The team hopes this ascent continues after the All-Star break.
#11 Phoenix Suns (last ranking: 16)
Another injury to Bradley Beal slows down an important hot streak for Phoenix. They’ve won almost a dozen games since the debut power rankings, but they’ve followed up some impressive victories with head-scratching losses. One does wonder how that pattern would be addressed if Monty Williams was still the coach.
#10 New Orleans Pelicans (last ranking: 10)
I’m going to have New Orleans in these power rankings what I’m doing with Toronto in the NHL ones; securing their spot as the benchmark team to see which teams can be separated from the good to great ones. The Pelicans have only lost to teams many see having deep playoff runs since the start of January. New Orleans also hasn’t been injury plagued, solidifying this choice.
#9 Miami Heat (last ranking: 8)
It’s a bummer Terry Rozier was injured shortly after Charlotte traded him to Miami. Star forward Jimmy Butler also getting hurt would make any other team crater and decide to let up before the All-Star break. This is Erik Spoelstra’s team though, so naturally the Heat have won their last six of eight.
#8 New York Knicks (last ranking: 11)
There’s some overreactions about New York’s shabby start to February. Usually a Tom Thibodeau coached team that lost only two games in January doesn’t play the following month without some fatigue. Once the second half of the season starts, the Knicks should pick up where they left off.
#7 Milwaukee Bucks (last ranking: 5)
I’m going to play this smart and keep the Bucks in the top ten but not top five until they show genuine improvement. Milwaukee is 3-7 in their last ten to start the Doc Rivers era. There are major flaws with this team including blowing double digit leads. Add the loss to a Grizzlies team with ten players injured and the Bucks have too many issues no one will be ignoring nor forgetting any time soon.
#6 Oklahoma City Thunder (last ranking: 6)
For anyone hoping the Thunder hit a wall in the second half of the season, you’re in for a rude awakening. Oklahoma City will probably win four of their five remaining February games, and while their March schedule does pose a challenge, they don’t have the pressure to win almost every game like Phoenix, Dallas or the Lakers will. People should think ahead to who would be in the best position to play the Thunder before Easter. No matter how their regular season ends, it’s tough to discourage an opponent who knows they’re going nowhere but up after the playoffs.
#5 Cleveland Cavaliers (last ranking: 13)
Philadelphia falling or not the Cavaliers deserve to be a top five ranked team. Cleveland also had a two loss January and lost by two to the 76ers Monday. They’ve blown out playoff hopefuls in both conferences, and the discussions of Donovan Mitchell being an MVP candidate will continue after the All-Star break.
#4 Minnesota Timberwolves (last ranking: 4)
If you want to know why the Timberwolves aren’t higher, consider this: they ended January with a loss to San Antonio, followed up by wins against Oklahoma City and Dallas. They began February with losses to Orlando and Chicago, then won against Milwaukee and the Clippers. It adds to the speculation of how predictable this team could be in the playoffs.
#3 Boston Celtics (last ranking: 1)
I’ll also be consistent in analyzing Boston sports teams and say just because they have the league’s best record, doesn’t mean they’re the league’s best team. The Celtics deserve credit for being the first team to 40 wins, but the’re 17-6 in their last 23 games after starting 26-6 the first 32 of the season. Their wins are also determined by how good they are from three-point range (via ESPN). All of their 2024 losses contain valid criticism to wonder how far this team can go in the playoffs.
#2 Los Angeles Clippers (last ranking: 7)
I expect many people won’t be happy with Los Angeles being this high. This is again consistency that’s been given to other teams such as New York and Cleveland. It’s not just the Clippers are winning, they look good. Right now, Los Angeles isn’t the type of team that would lose to non-contenders. If they do lose a game it’s usually close. The Clippers also have a benefit the longer this season goes: Minnesota and Oklahoma City will struggle some games due to inexperience while Kawhi Leonard raises his play. That means Paul George and James Harden will have more open looks. Last but not least, Los Angeles isn’t facing an injury crisis right now. That could get them far in the western conference.
#1 Denver Nuggets (last ranking: 2)
It makes sense to have the current champions here due to how Boston and Los Angeles have showed some weaknesses. Yes, Denver has lost more games than either since 2024 started, but if Denver plays both at full health in a seven game series, do you see the Clippers or Celtics taking four games? I don’t think so either.
Jamal Murray (27, blue) is the Denver’s second leading scorer and rebounder at the All-Star break.
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