The first round was fun but didn’t have many surprises or upsets. New York’s last second win in Detroit helped avoid a full, seven game series. Cleveland swept Miami and both Boston and Indiana took care of Orlando and Milwaukee respectively in five games. All teams in this upcoming round made it to last year’s semi-conference finals. The Celtics and Knicks have great offenses and defenses to make a fun series while the Pacers will be more of a challenge for the Cavaliers. Two of the remaining four will advance to the conference finals. Time to break down which of the two have the best chance to make round three.
#3 New York Knicks v. #2 Boston Celtics
New York point guard Jalen Brunson (11) might not be enough to overcome Boston forward Jaylen Brown (7) and center Kristaps Porzingis (8)
This is the easiest series in either round. New York cannot beat Boston to save their lives. Asking the Knicks to beat the Celtics four times in seven games is too much. Pencil in Boston for the eastern conference finals.
Prediction: Celtics win series 4-1
#4 Indiana Pacers v. #1 Cleveland Cavaliers
If Cleveland wants to make this a fast series, players like center Jarrett Allen (31) have to shut down Indiana’s offense each game.
This isn’t the easy series many expect for Cleveland. Both teams pulled their starters in two of their four regular season games and Indiana has improved each week and month. We’ll see how ready the Cavaliers are to take the next step by winning a championship without LeBron James.
Cleveland is fortunate to have the better roster depth and to know the Pacers weren’t challenged much last round against Milwaukee. Both teams will go all-out in this series and try to undermine the other’s patience. Unlike the Cavaliers, Indiana’s defense isn’t as good and still reverts to bad habits when tested by star scorers. It might be a longer series many expect, but there’s no doubt who wins.
Prediction: Cavaliers win series 4-2
Eastern conference first round playoffs record: 4-0
The east was the first conference to seal both playoff and play-in spots. Milwaukee and Detroit clinched the fifth and sixth seeds before their final game last Sunday. Indiana and Orlando are young teams that again exceeded expectations and will use this postseason to learn how to improve for future playoff appearances. Most believe the conference finals will be a Boston and Cleveland matchup. Milwaukee missing key players throughout the playoffs solidifies this belief. Regardless, four talented and competitive teams will advance to the second round. Time to break down which four have the best chance.
#8 Miami Heat v. #1 Cleveland Cavaliers
Cleveland guard Donovan Mitchell should be the most dominant player in this series.
This is an embarrassingly lopsided series. Cleveland has better coaching, roster depth and all-around offense and defense. The Cavaliers should make quick work of Miami.
Prediction: Cavaliers win series 4-0
#5 Milwaukee Bucks v. #4 Indiana Pacers
It’ll be a long series for Bucks star forward Giannis Antetokounmpo against Indiana’s improved defense.
Similar to last year’s second round series, Indiana’s hot offense will face early tests from Milwaukee’s defense. Also similar is how the Pacers know how to beat and get past the Bucks in almost every way. Milwaukee will be the under-manned, lesser talented team the first few games of series with no Damian Lillard. Indiana’s defense has improved and their offense gets better each month. This should also be a quick series.
Prediction: Indiana wins series 4-1
#6 Detroit Pistons v. #3 New York Knicks
Detroit’s star point guard Cade Cunningham is a bright spot in a turn-around year. Unfortunately, that might not be enough against the veteran Knicks.
This should be one of the funnest playoff series regardless of the round. The physical, resurgent Pistons are this year’s darlings after an awful 2023-24 season. Forward Tobias Harris and guards Cade Cunningham and Tim Hardaway Jr. will be tough to defend against for New York’s Jalen Brunson, OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges. The Knicks do have the edge at center and small forward with Karl Anthony-Towns and Josh Hart. New York also has more depth and are better defensively than Detroit. On paper, the talent easily goes to the Knicks. Yet the Pistons will make this a longer series due to how well they match up.
Prediction: Knicks win series 4-2
#7 Orlando Magic v. #2 Boston Celtics
If Orlando wants to win this series, guards like Cole Anthony (50) have to consistently play their best on both sides of the ball.
This could be the east’s best first round series. Orlando won the regular season series despite both wins (one at the beginning of the season and one at the end) being months apart. Regardless, the Magic have the players, talent and coaching to take Boston a full seven games.
The Celtics have one of the deepest, most experienced rosters in the NBA. However, Boston hasn’t played at a consistent level like last year. If the Celtics want to keep the edge and escape a first round upset, they need guards Derrick White, Jrue Holliday and Peyton Pritchard to consistently play great.
Given how both of these teams didn’t play each other much throughout the regular season, Boston gets the nod given how well their deep roster adapts and has enough experience to get past a thinner Orlando roster.
Prediction: Celtics win series 4-3
Regular season eastern conference playoffs and play-in predictions record: 9-1
The 2024-25 NBA regular season ended in anticipation of a thrilling western conference playoff race. MVP front-runner Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder are favorites to make a deep run to the championship while the young Rockets want to prove they can compete and beat the best veteran teams. No one should underestimate the resurgence of Golden State or of either Los Angeles team. Denver remains the team everyone wants out in order to have a fair chance at the finals. Four talented squads will advance to the second round. Time to break down which four have the best chance.
#8 Memphis Grizzlies v. #1 Oklahoma City Thunder
Memphis will put up a fight, but Oklahoma City’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is too much for the Grizzlies guards.
This should be one of the most fun first round series. Memphis and Oklahoma City have great guard and forward duos. Both teams have roster depth the remaining six western teams covet. Despite their similarities, there’s a clear winner here.
The Grizzlies have the players to double-team MVP favorite guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Should Memphis stick to that game-plan, the Thunder will let guards Alex Caruso and Luguentz Dort take more shots and chances to lead the offense. Oklahoma City also has the advantage at center with Isaiah Hartenstein and Jaylin Williams over the Grizzlies Zach Edey.
Prediction: Thunder win series 4-2
#6 Minnesota Timberwolves v. #3 Los Angeles Lakers
There’s a lot of pressure on Minnesota guard Anthony Edwards to repeat last year’s postseason run to the conference finals.
There are a lot of fun storylines and history both teams share. Los Angeles revamped their roster mid-season while Minnesota upgraded theirs last offseason. Both teams have great guards and forwards. Even depth scoring and coaching have improved since the All-Star break.
The Lakers do have the better point-guard matchup with Luka Doncic over Mike Conley. Although Doncic and veteran forward LeBron James play great in the regular season, they elevate their performances once the postseason starts. Timberwolves shooting guard Anthony Edwards will keep the series close, but he can’t do it all by himself.
Prediction: Lakers win series 4-2
#7 Golden State Warriors v. #2 Houston Rockets
No matter what happens in this matchup, this will be the series in which Rockets guard Jalen Green (4) takes the next step in being a franchise star player.
One could not find a worse first round matchup for Houston if they tried. Golden State is 4-0 all-time in playoff series against the Rockets and has the second best league record since the trade deadline. While Houston is the best rebounding team and plays well around the basket, they’re ill-equipped to handle the Warriors exceptional shooting and improved all-around play. Coach Ime Udoka will use every tactic available to keep the series close, but there is only so much he can do before point guard Steph Curry and forward Jimmy Butler III take over and dominate game pace.
Prediction: Warriors win series 4-1
#5 Los Angeles Clippers v. #4 Denver Nuggets
Two of the NBA’s best players in Nikola Jokic and Kawhi Leonard are fully healthy. That makes for the best first round series this postseason.
This is the best first round series in either conference. Los Angeles is fully healthy and Denver has played better since coach Michael Malone was fired. Not only is MVP candidate Nikola Jokic fun to watch, it will be interesting to see how star forward Kawhi Leonard counters him on defense. Clippers guards James Harden and Kris Dunn will have a hard time defending Nuggets guards Jamal Murray and Russell Westbrook. Los Angeles center Ivica Zubac is a good counter to forward Aaron Gordon.
If there are weaknesses on either team, it’s bench depth. Both franchises have great starters, but at some point Los Angeles has to rest theirs given how each has previous injury concerns. Denver can substitute their starters without worrying how it’ll take a toll on the team later in the postseason.
Prediction: Nuggets win series 4-2
Regular season western conference playoffs and play-in predictions record: 5-4
The first round was fun but didn’t have many surprises or upsets. Cleveland overcame an 18 point deficit (the largest game seven comeback in NBA history) to beat Orlando in a full, seven game series. Boston took care of Miami in five games. New York and Indiana have advanced further than at any point the past decade. The Pacers have a great offense and the Knicks a great defense to make a great series while the Cavaliers will be more of a challenge for the Celtics. Two of the remaining four will advance to the conference finals. Time to break down which of the two have the best chance to make round three.
#4 Cleveland Cavaliers v. #1 Boston Celtics
Donovan Mitchell (45) and the Cavaliers will be a tougher opponent against Jayson Tatum (0) and the Celtics than Miami was last round.
The easiest of the second round matchups, both teams are opposite in team depth, coaching and health. Cleveland center Jarrett Allen will be battling bruised ribs like he did at the end of round one. Depending on the minutes Allen plays, this could be another simple series for Boston. The Celtics might start veteran Al Horford at center if Kristaps Porzingis isn’t ready to play the first two games due to his calf injury. Sam Hauser and Payton Pritchard are important role players the Cavaliers have to stop in critical minutes.
Prediction: Celtics win series 4-1
#6 Indiana Pacers v. #2 New York Knicks
Jalen Brunson (blue) has to propel New York’s offense to the conference finals once their defense stifles the Pacers.
A refreshing matchup where both teams haven’t played in the NBA’s second round in at least a decade. Both Indiana and New York have talented young rosters and great coaches. The Pacers have a franchise star in point-guard Tyrese Haliburton and quality talent with center Myles Turner and forwards Obi Toppin and Pascal Siakam.
The Knicks have one of the best starting rosters in the league. Guard duo Jalen Brunson and Donte DiVincenzo have great chemistry going back to their Villanova days. Forwards OG Anunoby and Josh Hart play well together. Center Isaiah Hartenstein could determine the series with his solid play on both sides of the ball. New York plays great defense and well-rounded offense. Indiana’s been one of the best offensive teams in the league, but they don’t play defense well and that will hurt them this series.
Prediction: Knicks win series 4-1
Eastern conference first round playoffs record: 4-0
The 2023-24 NBA regular season ended on a high note for the eastern conference. New York clinched the second seed in their final game before the play-in tournament. Indiana and Orlando are young teams that exceeded expectations and will use this postseason to learn how to improve for future playoff appearances. Most believe the east is Boston’s to lose. Milwaukee’s inconsistency even before hiring new coach Doc Rivers solidifies this belief. Regardless, four talented and competitive teams will advance to the second round. Time to break down which four have the best chance.
#8 Miami Heat v. #1 Boston Celtics
While Jayson Tatum (left) will have one of the best statistical series of his career, it’s up to Miami’s Tyler Herro (right) to keep the Heat close in each game.
This couldn’t be a more lopsided series. Miami’s without star forward Jimmy Butler against the league’s best team. Boston’s starting five and their dangerous scoring depth makes this a one-sided matchup. No matter how well the Heat play, the Celtics will quickly advance to round two.
Prediction: Celtics win series 4-0
#6 Indiana Pacers v. #3 Milwaukee Bucks
Tyrese Haliburton (left) and the Pacers are heavily favored to sweep Giannis Antetokounmpo (right) and the Bucks after sweeping them in the regular season.
It’s not as easy a prediction Indiana will sweep their first round opponent like Boston will, but many expect it. Milwaukee didn’t win 50 games during the regular season after they hired Doc Rivers (they had 30 when Adrian Griffin was let go). The Bucks have regressed on defense since Jrue Holiday was traded to Portland for star point-guard Damian Lillard. Lillard’s also struggled shooting from three-point range most of the season.
Indiana decisively swept their central division rivals, and this was before they traded for forward Pascal Siakam mid-January. The Pacers averaged 123 points per game and were over 50% in field goal percentage in the regular season. Indiana never faced a dip in offensive production. That’s bad news for the Bucks.
Prediction: Pacers win series 4-0
#7 Philadelphia 76ers v. #2 New York Knicks
Former league MVP Joel Embiid’s still easing back into playing full-time minutes, but Isaiah Hartenstein and the Knicks have a shutdown defense that can frustrate Philadelphia.
This series would look different if 76ers franchise star center Joel Embiid was at full health and consistently playing 40 minutes a night. Since Embiid’s easing back into his major roles, New York will take advantage of this weakness and attack both the former MVP and Philadelphia’s complimentary players. Forward OG Anunoby and the guard duo of Jalen Brunson and Donte DiVincenzo will be too much for coach Nick Nurse’s adjustments.
Prediction: Knicks win series 4-1
#5 Orlando Magic v. #4 Cleveland Cavaliers
No matter who wins the series, both Paolo Banchero (5) and Donovan Mitchell (45) should play well and give audiences the best series of the first round.
The hardest series to decide a round one winner in either conference. Both Orlando and Cleveland are young and inexperienced, but play hard and are fun to watch. They have similar stats and both excel playing inside the three-point line. This will probably be a physical, seven game series.
If any side can claim an advantage, it would be the Cavaliers with guard Donovan Mitchell leading the offense. The Magic can counter with guard duo Gary Harris or Jalen Suggs, but it won’t be enough to contain Mitchell. Cleveland can counter Orlando’s star trio of Paolo Banchero, Wendell Carter Jr. and Franz Wagner with their trio of Evan Mobley, Max Strus and Jarrett Allen. This puts more pressure on Harris and Suggs to score more than Mitchell, but that will be hard to do each game.
Prediction: Cavaliers win series 4-3
Regular season eastern conference playoffs and play-in prediction record: 6-2
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