2023-2024 NHL First Half Analysis, Questions, Power Rankings and Much More

What a fun first half of the season. The Boston Bruins and Vancouver Canucks are tied for the league’s best record. Sam Reinhart, Sidney Crosby and Marc-Andre Fleury have dazzled and broken franchise or league records. Then there’s the case for who will win league MVP. The tone is set for the second half of the regular season. Here are the top takes, questions and answers as All-Star weekend closes.

Who is the most deserving of the Hart trophy this season?

There are a lot of names you could pick to win the Hart trophy (the NHL’s regular season MVP award). Usually the winner is either the league leader in total points or the deciding factor for a team getting into the postseason. This year it ranges from top goal scorer to best player. Auston Matthews’ 40 goals in 47 games is incredible. Nathan MacKinnon’s home point streak of 25 to start a season ties him for second all-time with the great Bobby Orr. MacKinnon’s play has opened up better scoring opportunities for depth players such as Logan O’Connor and Ross Colton. This is all without team captain Gabriel Landeskog and twenty goal scorer Valeri Nichushkin. There’s Nikita Kucherov, back in top form leading the NHL in points with 85. Kucherov’s a reason Tampa Bay’s the fifth seed in the east after 50 games. Boston’s David Pastrnak leads Boston in points, goals and assists. Dating back to the start of last season, Pastrnak has scored the most goals in the league with 94. Connor McDavid is a distant second with 84. The Bruins are also tied for the league’s best record with 71 points. Last but not least, don’t forget Connor McDavid has led Edmonton to the second best winning streak in NHL history with 16 straight victories. Voters want to see how the Oilers captain helps the team extend this streak.

It’s possible this becomes the most contested Hart race since the 2001-2002 season. McDavid’s won the trophy a few times and Matthews will probably win the Maurice “Rocket” Richard trophy at his scoring pace. That means the vote could be narrowed to Pastrnak, MacKinnon and Kucherov. What MacKinnon’s doing right now with no team captain and personal issues sidelining the third leading goal scorer on the team could give him the edge over the latter two.

Will any other coaches get fired before February ends?

Los Angeles’ Todd McLellan was fired this past Friday after the Kings went 3-12 last month. The organization only extended his contract through the 2024-2025 season before the regular season began. Los Angeles is a playoff contender that needs a different coach who can elevate the team back to a playoff mindset.

There are a few others who could go before the postseason begins. Greg Cronin of Anaheim hasn’t done well with the young, talented core general manager Pat Verbeek’s drafted. The regression of Trevor Zegras and having only one 20+ goal scorer on the roster doesn’t reflect well on Cronin. He was hired in the 2023 offseason so it’s possible he gets another year, but the room for error is thin. Another name to consider is Don Granato in Buffalo. The Sabres’ playoff drought will extend another year unless the powerplay and defense quickly improves. Luke Richardson in Chicago and David Quinn in San Jose are other names to keep an eye on.

This is an annual question but what’s the biggest surprise of the year, or in this case, since last power rankings?

Luckily for Minnesota, their play has improved since the first power rankings was published. They’re still near the bottom in the west but there’s hope they sneak into the postseason. Edmonton’s turnaround after an awful two month start is eye-opening. I don’t think anyone had the Oilers winning 16 straight games even if captain Connor McDavid or Leon Draisaitl had zeroes in the stat sheets some nights. The team defense is central to the streak and Kris Knoblauch should be commended for the 180 degree turnaround.

There’s a good case for Winnipeg also being the top team in the western conference since December and Vancouver being a great pick for conference finals host, but anything could happen the final three months. Edmonton shouldn’t slow down anytime soon with who’s on the roster.

Here’s the second ever NHL power rankings on jdsportscorner.com. These show where all 32 teams objectively stand. Some teams will have tiebreakers based off of how they’d perform on a neutral site.

#32 Chicago Blackhawks (last ranking: 31)

Chicago’s been shut out four of their last six games. It’s understandable most of the roster is on injured reserve but what an awful stat the team has to look at before play resumes.

#31 San Jose Sharks (last ranking: 32)

I don’t think Quinn will get fired for two reasons: everyone knew San Jose would be terrible in another rebuilding year. That awful streak at the beginning of the season is still heavy on everyone’s minds. The other reason is how well the team has played since Christmas. They’ve won four of their last six games, building more confidence.

#30 Anaheim Ducks (last ranking: 29)

January 21st’s home loss to the Rangers summarized their season. Mason McTavish scored a goal, giving Anaheim a 3-1 lead. When the refs pulled it back due to the puck being played offsides, New York then scored all four unanswered goals the final period. The Ducks lost 5-2. Nothing is going right for this team.

#29 Columbus Blue Jackets (last ranking: 28)

If you take out the shutout win in St. Louis, Columbus gave up an average four goals a game in January. That’s a fraction into why they have the second worst scoring defense this season. It doesn’t matter who the team’s leading scorers are if the defense can’t keep the puck out of the net.

#28 Ottawa Senators (last ranking: 30)

Imagine how good this team would have been if D.J. Smith was fired after 2022 instead of coaching on an extended contract this season. Not only are the Senators playing better defense just over three weeks into the new year, they’ve beaten at least three playoff caliber teams. Ottawa could be a litmus test for who’s worthy of making the postseason by the start of March.

#27 Montreal Canadiens (last ranking: 24)

I know he’s only been in the league less than two seasons but at what point is there draft remorse over picking Juraj Slafkovsky first overall? Seattle’s handled Shane Wright’s ease into the league well even though they’re the youngest franchise. Montreal knew they’d be at the bottom for at least a few years. He could’ve developed more in the AHL instead of just playing most of last season. The Canadiens could use a more polished Slafkovsky with the injuries and roster holes this year.

#26 Minnesota Wild (last ranking: 27)

This team showed miniscule improvement from the last power rankings and somehow are seven points behind the last wildcard spot in the west. All Minnesota needs is one good month and they can be a headache before the postseason starts. There’s no reason the Wild should continue struggling with 33 games left.

#25 Arizona Coyotes (last ranking: 22)

The contenders are starting to play more serious, so it’s not a surprise Arizona’s fading into the background. There are a lot of positives for the Coyotes young core moving forward but there’s a lot of needed growth and roster depth to address.

#24 Buffalo Sabres (last ranking: 26)

If Granato is fired, it has to be after the season ends. The Sabres still play hard for him and given the state of the metropolitan division, they could make another run for the postseason. I don’t think he’ll be fired due to the team’s overall progress, but one has to wonder when owner Terry Pegula decides to move on.

#23 Calgary Flames (last ranking: 23)

Calgary’s 2024 includes:

• a high chance Dillon Dube never plays on the roster again due to the sexual assault case in London, Ontario.
• Had winning streaks of two and four with losing streaks of two and four.
• Traded Elias Lindholm to rival Vancouver.
• finished the first half of the season with the fourth worst power-play in the league.

That was only January.

#22 Washington Capitals (last ranking: 16)

The Capitals are one of three teams tied with 51 points in the east and on the outside of the playoff race. Washington is the worst of the three. While the defense is their strength, the Capitals are alarmingly a top three worst scoring offense in the league. Recall what I said in the last power rankings; how much longer will it take until certain names return?

#21 New Jersey Devils (last ranking: 17)

I knew this team wouldn’t replicate last season’s success but wow they’ve taken hit after hit. Michael McLeod and Cal Foote probably won’t play another game for the franchise (they’re in the same sexual assault case as Dillon Dube) and Jack Hughes’ upper body injury has limited the offense. Instead of worrying about trading for Ducks goalie John Gibson, New Jersey has to continue coaching up the younger defensive players and make some smaller trades for offensive scoring depth.

#20 New York Islanders (last ranking: 14)

Unlike many, I’m not enthusiastic about Patrick Roy being the interim coach. In fact, I find it sinister not only is he the current coach, but this move was decided by Lou Lamoriello after Marc-Andre Fleury became the second winningest goalie in NHL history, surpassing Roy after shutting out the Islanders on MLK Jr. Day. For anyone who doesn’t know, Roy resigned from Colorado for not getting his own way against franchise great and general manager Joe Sakic. The resignation led to the franchise’s 48 point season with then-rookie coach Jared Bednar unable to implement anything with Roy’s former assistants. If Lamoriello believes this will make New York better, he’s in for a rude awakening.

#19 Pittsburgh Penguins (last ranking: 18)

There’s been chatter defenseman Erik Karlsson could get traded due to differences in his style of play versus the Penguins’ three franchise stars. Pittsburgh is a top three team in defense but bottom five in offense and they badly need scoring depth. A trade makes sense.

#18 Seattle Kraken (last ranking: 21)

In Seattle’s last four losses, one was against San Jose and two were 2-0 leads against playoff hopefuls. Those losses will contribute to where the Kraken land before playoffs start.

#17 Philadelphia Flyers (last ranking: 14)

The sexual assault case in London, Ontario hits Philadelphia hardest. Goalie Carter Hart might not play another game with the franchise. That could upend the Flyers season unless there’s a trade for someone like John Gibson or Mackenzie Blackwood. Without Hart, Philadelphia isn’t going to the playoffs. They’re already the eighth seed not even three weeks after he went back north.

#16 Nashville Predators (last ranking: 13)

It’s easy for sports pundits to say a playoff caliber team up 3-0 against Ottawa should 100% win the game. Nashville squeaked out wins in January they shouldn’t have, so there’s nothing to complain about. What will be interesting is what new general manager Barry Trotz decides to do with this roster by the trade deadline and what changes are made depending on the Predators making the playoffs.

#15 Los Angeles Kings (last ranking: 11)

Looking back, McLellan’s fate was sealed when franchise star Drew Doughty came back to practice and then ripped three teammates online. Management saw the defensive stats and made the right move. There’s no way the number one penalty killing unit should miss the playoffs.

#14 St. Louis Blues (last ranking: 25)

The Blues dealt Vancouver two of their three losses in January, lost to Boston in overtime and pummeled the Rangers. They’re in prime position to stay in one of the lower wildcard spots the second half of the season. I don’t know if Drew Bannister should keep the coaching job at the end of the season but I can concede the short-term changes are helping the team.

#13 Detroit Red Wings (last ranking: 20)

Detroit claims the best stat of the first half of the season: whenever Red Wings games are televised, they’re the most watched team in the U.S. Audiences want to see Detroit at the top of the league again. Viewers watched the Wings win 20 points in January, the most the franchise has won for that month in over a decade. We’re getting closer to seeing them be a serious playoff threat.

#12 Edmonton Oilers (last ranking: 19)

That’s better. I did say this team would be in a higher spot once the defense and goaltending showed true improvement. Well, they’ve won 16 straight, one short of the league’s all-time record. While I’m curious how they’ll bounce back after a loss, the Oilers haven’t given up more than three goals in a game since their December 22nd road win against the Rangers. Kris Knoblauch’s made the defense a priority and it’s why Edmonton could have a deep postseason run.

#11 Tampa Bay Lightning (last ranking: 15)

Andrei Vasilevskiy is almost back to his Vezina form. What’s helped him is Tampa’s power-play jumping to the league’s best at 30%. When the power-play starts cooling off (they all do, it’s inevitable), we’ll see how good this team is on defense.

#10 Toronto Maple Leafs (last ranking: 10)

January is a microcosm of what this team is: they’ll beat the bad teams and get some wins against some good teams, but they’ll also lose to the great ones and a few younger and hungrier teams. Yes, the Leafs are a good team, but they’re absolutely not better than the other nine on this list. That’s fine, as long as they don’t play them in the postseason.

#9 New York Rangers (last ranking: 7)

The initial power rankings list I wrote up a week before typing on here had the Rangers at number one. Thankfully that was a rough draft. New York’s been gradually slipping and one has to wonder if the Peter Laviolette all-offense-and-no-defense style of coaching is starting to take over sooner than expected. They need to take advantage of the softer February schedule as soon as the All-Star break ends.

#8 Carolina Hurricanes (last ranking: 9)

New York’s slippage is Carolina’s gain. Even if the Hurricanes didn’t win all their January games, they’re mostly back to their dangerous selves. Those first two games after the All-Star break will show audiences how good this team is.

#7 Dallas Stars (last ranking: 8)

After Los Angeles, Dallas is the one team out west that would want to re-do January. Losses to Montreal, Nashville and Philadelphia countered resounding wins against Minnesota, Los Angeles and New Jersey. They also struggled with Detroit, Anaheim and Washington. Coach Peter DeBoer better renew the focus this month.

#6 Vegas Golden Knights (last ranking: 4)

Much like Dallas, Vegas didn’t do themselves any favors looking dangerous one game and looking garbage the next. Part of the Golden Knights’ issue has been goaltending, so that can get sorted out after a one week break. This is when coach Bruce Cassidy has to drive home they’re the better team with 32 games left.

#5 Boston Bruins (last ranking: 6)

The NHL Network found an amazing statline on the 27th: Boston’s defensemen core had 97 points before the All-Star break (it’s now 100 with Charlie McAvoy, Hampus Lindholm and Brandon Carlo each adding one). The Bruins are tied for the best record in the league while their defensemen are in the bottom half of the league in points.

#4 Florida Panthers (last ranking: 5)

Florida was up and down to start 2024 but Sam Reinhart will get a big contract once the season is over. Nobody thought he’d have 37 goals after 49 games. Even if the Panthers enter a difficult part of the schedule, they can count on Reinhart to be in the score column.

#3 Winnipeg Jets (last ranking: 1)

Hilariously, that sensational point and winning streak Winnipeg put together after the last power rankings was published ended when John Tortorella’s Flyers outplayed them in a home shutout loss. The Jets also lost two close games to Toronto and got thrashed in TD Garden against Boston (most opponents have dealt with that the last two years). Those aren’t shameful results. On the contrary, it ensures Winnipeg will play more determined this month.

#2 Colorado Avalanche (last ranking: 3)

The most dangerous part of coach Jared Bednar’s Avalanche (outside that awful first year) has been how the team plays their best hockey the second half of the regular season, especially in March. Both Winnipeg and Dallas had chances to stay ahead of Colorado before the end of January. Now they’re going to find out why giving their mountain rivals any room to work around is a bad idea.

#1 Vancouver Canucks (last ranking: 2)

Vancouver did what playoff teams should do and that is dominate their schedule versus the easier teams most of January. February will show audiences how high the playoff ceiling can go. They’ll be facing most of the Cup favorites in both conferences. Trading for Elias Lindholm shows they’re ready to take the next few steps and have more than a deep playoff run.