2024 AFC Playoff Picks

The 2023 NFL season was a success for the American Football Conference. From the close division winning races to Kansas City’s second straight championship title, the biggest takeaway was the continued conference depth for playoff contenders. Half the divisions could have any team come out on top and no one would be surprised. The remaining three teams that don’t win a division title, have a great chance to go far as a wild-card candidate this year.

2023 featured at least three Super Bowl favorites in two divisions. Now it’s six in all four. The Chiefs will go for a three-peat title run in a conference that again improved at every position. Finally, expect a hotly contested divisional race between the Jaguars and Texans to heat up again down south, this time with a more balanced roster in Houston and a more desperate team in Jacksonville. Time to break down which seven teams in the AFC have the best chance of reaching the playoffs for 2025.

AFC South: Houston Texans

Like the NFC, this article starts with the easiest of the four divisions. Tennessee is easily at the bottom, so the south is a three team race. Indianapolis’ serious lack of depth at receiver and runningback will be exposed before Thanksgiving while Jacksonville’s defense could jeopardize postseason dreams. This leaves Houston as the best choice.

The Texans added serious offensive firepower with runningback Joe Mixon and wide receivers Stefon Diggs and Quinton Cephus. General manager Nick Caserio also signed a lot of short term roster depth deals on defense. Head coach DeMeco Ryans brings out the best in his players and will help develop the players on short-term deals. Houston will be taken more seriously this season by every team on their schedule, so the organization made the right moves to stay ahead and should be a threat to any AFC team wanting the top seed.

AFC East: Miami Dolphins, New York Jets

The window shut on the Bills Super Bowl and division winning chances after the offseason decimated their roster. Defensive captain and middle linebacker Matt Milano will miss at least the first month of the regular season. This is a perfect time for Miami to take advantage of vulnerable Buffalo and dominate the division.

The Dolphins signed tight-end Jonnu Smith to replace Mike Gesicki and Odell Beckham Jr. for more receiver depth. On defense the secondary remains a question mark, but the front seven is filled with veterans who pressure opposing offensive lines well. It will take a full team effort to beat Miami even when winter settles in.

New England could be the worst team in the league and Buffalo doesn’t have the offensive firepower nor defensive depth to stay in the playoff race if Jets starting quarterback Aaron Rodgers plays the whole season. The 2023 New York defense was fantastic but the offense struggled after Rodgers ruptured his left Achilles tendon minutes into last year’s Monday night intro versus the Bills.

Many are unsure how Aaron Rodgers will perform after not playing a whole year. While New York retained a lot of talent on every side of the ball after last season, there’s also better depth at quarterback should Rodgers fall to injury again. Finally, the Jets have a favorable schedule where they could win ten or eleven games before a week 12 bye.

AFC West: Los Angeles Chargers, Kansas City Chiefs

This could be the most anticipated prediction of the conference. Anyone who’s been a fan of American football for over two decades is aware of new Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh’s success. The AFC version of Dan Quinn, Harbaugh’s hiring in 2011 by San Francisco led the 49ers to three of their best playoff runs of the 21st century (until current coach Kyle Shanahan was hired in 2017).

Los Angeles desperately needs something to get a fanbase excited while giving a roster of stars the best chances to succeed. Starting quarterback Justin Herbert will be one of the league’s best players this season and is fortunate to have help at every offensive position. The defense retains star pass rushers and an improving secondary that will cause a lot of problems for champion favorites like Kansas City.

Speaking of Kansas City, the Chiefs had their worst season in the Patrick Mahomes era and still won a championship. General manager Brett Veach went to work after the title parade and quickly added receiver depth, signing Marquise Brown and Montrell Washington, and re-signing Mecole Hardman. Veach addressed tight-end depth signing Irv Smith and drafting Geor’Quarius Spivey. These additions should help take some of the load off of 34 year old All-Pro Travis Kelce.

On defense, Kansas City will be a problem for opposing offenses to attack since they know how to stop the run and the secondary’s still aggressive but plays smarter. Their recent postseason successes could turn into late season fatigue, especially when the Chargers have more vigor and determination to finish higher in the standings.

AFC North: Baltimore Ravens, Cleveland Browns

The loss of defensive coordinator Mike McDonald won’t linger like the loss of Dan Quinn in Dallas, but it will be felt once the Ravens face a top offense before January. Part of the reason McDonald’s loss won’t sting as much is because franchise starting quarterback and league MVP Lamar Jackson’s under center.

Baltimore’s questionable offensive game plan sent them home versus Kansas City in the conference championship. The receiving core was better than expected last year, but had too many drops and poor route running in crucial moments. General manager Eric DeCosta signed behemoth runningback Derrick Henry as another threat in the running game and added receiver Russell Gage. Tight end Mark Andrews should be healthy most of the season, and that could put the Ravens in cruise control most of 2023.

Outside of Baltimore, the remaining three north teams have great chances to make the postseason. Pittsburgh might be in trouble if they don’t add receiver depth by the trade deadline and Cincinnati losing runningback Joe Mixon while not adding important defensive players will come back to bite. This leaves Cleveland as the best remaining choice.

The Browns won’t replicate last year’s success on defense with coordinator Jim Schwartz, but the offense should and has to be much better with quarterback DeShaun Watson under center. General manager Andrew Berry kept most of the 2023 starting offense and added former Bronco wideout Jerry Jeudy as another option for Watson. If Cleveland’s offense struggles like it did last year, expect Berry to clean a lot of talent out. The Browns have more stars than the Steelers and Bengals, they just have to play with better rhythm this year.

Total 2023-2024 regular and postseason picks: 4-3

Important Note to the reader: NFL’s Winners and Losers will not be published for the first week of the regular season due to the writer, editor and publisher having time off. Winners and Losers will resume week two of the regular season after the September 15th weekend. Articles will resemble last year’s consistency, with at least 12 publications for 18 weekends games are/were played.