2025 AFC Playoff Picks

Let us briefly look at the American Football Conference and a complex 2024. From close division winning races to Kansas City’s continued conference championship domination, the biggest takeaway was the continued west division arms race. Meanwhile, the other three divisions could have any team come out on top and no wild card team make the playoffs. The remaining three teams that don’t win a division title could be in the west.

As the Chiefs go for another title run in a conference that again improved at every position, at least two other teams outside the AFC west are favored to challenge the reigning conference champions and make the Super Bowl. Time to break down which seven teams in the AFC have the best chance of reaching the playoffs for 2026.

East: Buffalo Bills

Reminiscent of the old AFC east days, this year’s division should have a clear winner and three duds. New York looks like a hot mess and Miami has all the signs of a continued downward spiral. New England is a nice wild-card choice for those optimistic in both new head coach Mike Vrabel and sophomore quarterback Drake Maye’s progression. Yet, the Patriots don’t have the talent to last a whole season in the playoff conversation. This leaves the Bills as the lone, easy choice.

Buffalo’s defense will be the big question mark for how far they go in the postseason. For now, the Bills are experienced and good enough to punch their playoff ticket.

South: Houston Texans

As in the east, the south unfortunately has at least two teams easily eliminated before the regular season begins. Tennessee will be undermanned and overpowered almost every week and Indianapolis has no answer at quarterback. Jacksonville may surprise many with offensive growth and improved play, but the real team to watch is Houston.

The Texans went all-in on re-tooling the offense and defense after a disappointing 2024-25 regular season. Although Houston played well in the postseason, injuries and lack of depth at receiver, linebacker and secondary were concerns in the offseason. Receivers Christian Kirk and Braxton Berrios provide the needed receiver depth. Nick Niemann, Darrell Taylor and E.J. Speed beef up an anemic linebacker core. Finally, the Texan secondary will be one of the best and deepest in the NFL with their additions of C.J. Gardner-Johnson and Jalen Mills. Both join a stacked cornerback and safety group that includes Derek Stingley Jr., Ronald Darby, Jaylen Reed, Jimmie Ward, Jalen Pitre, Calen Bullock and Kamari Lassiter.

North: Baltimore Ravens

There’s a theme here. Cleveland does not inspire confidence with their quarterback situation. Cincinnati’s porous defense weighs down any chances of success. Pittsburgh’s investment in a 41 year old quarterback to lead a further depleted offense is a case of wishful thinking and a probable recipe for disaster. Baltimore easily stands out from the other three.

As long as Lamar Jackson is healthy and under center, none of the other three teams have a chance at winning the north. While the Ravens didn’t lose or gain much talent in the offseason, the offensive line, Jackson and receivers like Isaiah Likely, Zay Flowers, Mark Andrews and Rashod Bateman have another full season to play together. Baltimore has to win more than just one playoff game with this core group.

West: All of them/Kansas City Chiefs, Denver Broncos, Los Angeles Chargers, Las Vegas Raiders

The AFC West will be the toughest division in either conference this season. The other three divisions don’t boast many challenges outside of last year’s division winners. This leaves a rare, unique, and plausible opportunity for all four western teams to clinch a playoff spot.

Two easy picks are the AFC’s top team Kansas City Chiefs and the rising Denver Broncos. As long as Kansas City’s head coach Andy Reid has defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, face of the franchise quarterback Patrick Mahomes II and edge rusher Chris Jones, the Chiefs remain the favorite to clinch another division title.

Yet they cannot underestimate Denver head coach Sean Payton, sophomore quarterback Bo Nix, reigning defensive player of the year Pat Surtain II and receivers Marvin Mims Jr. and Courtland Sutton. The Broncos will be one of the few teams that can go blow-for-blow on all sides of the ball with the Chiefs. Both regular season rivalry games will be must-watch T.V. because they could determine which team takes the west.

As Kansas City and Denver strive to surpass last year’s results, Los Angeles will try and keep their early playoff hopes alive. Preseason injuries on the offensive line are already a red flag. Rashawn Slater is out until next autumn and Mekhi Becton already dealing with an undisclosed injury shows the Chargers have to lean more on the running game. Luckily for them, head coach Jim Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman have emphasized the running game remains a priority heading into week one. Re-signing receiver Keenan Allen and adding defensive depth with cornerback Donte Jackson will matter deeper into the season.

Finally, the last team serious analysts consider a valid wild-card contender and division factor will be the Las Vegas Raiders. The first head coach hired in Tom Brady’s co-ownership tenure was Pete Carroll. Carroll and general manager John Spytek traded for Seattle quarterback Geno Smith, signed runningback Raheem Mostert and safety Jeremy Chinn in free agency, and drafted Boise State phenom runningback and one of last season’s Heisman Trophy candidates Ashton Jeanty in the first round. The defense lost a number of players in the offseason, but Carroll’s coaching expertise with linebackers and the secondary will improve a unit that got better last year despite a lackluster offense giving up some wins. The offense has more long-term talent at every position. That should make the defense more fun to watch.

Total 2024-2025 regular and postseason AFC picks: 8-5