Time has flown by since the 2022 World Cup in Qatar. Erling Haaland has made Norway a respectable, serious team. Various teams in Africa and Asia are relevant again. Spain’s Lamine Yamal is the most talented young adult in the sport. Several legendary players could take the stage in their (potentially) last World Cup tournament.
The format many of us were used to before 2022 is thankfully back. There is no desert heat in any match hosted in North America, but there will be three nations hosting matches for the first time in FIFA World Cup history. Most teams will have different issues to contend with like public transportation, but that’s something every team should have figured out.
For those not familiar with how round one of the World Cup works or the new rules that are now in place, this explanation should help. 12 groups containing four teams each compete to advance to the next round. The top two teams in each group, plus eight third place winners will make round two. The 32 teams that advance must have high point totals or tie-breakers. Winners of each match get three points, those who draw receive one, and losers gain none. All four teams play each other in their own group. It is therefore better to strategize how to play all three teams in order to advance. FIFA has added more rules that should be read before and during the tournament. Now that you understand the main parts of this format better, it is time to break down which teams from Groups A through L have the best chance of advancing to round two.
Group A: Mexico and Czech Republic
The tournament interestingly begins with Mexico playing South Africa. The former has racked up impressive results in their last five matches. El Tri has consistently played well enough to get out of round one in all but one of their World Cup appearances this century.
The Czech Republic is the other team favored to advance. Despite a turbulent time at the 2024 Euros, changes at coach and captain bore fruit in 2025. South Korea isn’t an intimidating team for Repre or Mexico, and South Africa does not have the offense to keep either teams listed at a tie. Therefore, these are the two teams this website sees advancing from Group A.
Group B: Canada, Switzerland
Despite Qatar being the Asian champions, there is a clear difference in skill when they play talented teams. Bosnia and Herzegovina rely on talented teams playing them half-heartedly (yes, we’re looking at you Italy). However, the Dragons could surprise many and somehow make round two if they’re a strong contending third place/fringe second place team. That mostly depends on the other two teams.
Switzerland is easily the best team in this group. They’re the deepest, most veteran and talented. They also hold their own against many of the world’s best teams despite flying under the radar. It would be a shock if the Swiss don’t finish first in this group.
Canada will be the determining factor. Les Rouges play smart and held their own against most of of South America’s best teams. If a win isn’t possible, Canada makes sure to play to a tie. Various talented teams in the World Cup have found this out the hard way. A win against Qatar is assured given the Canucks talent advantage. If they play both Bosnia and Herzegovina and Switzerland to a draw (which is likely given Switzerland knows how to attack the Dragons better), Canada is the best option to clinch second place and make the elimination round.
Group C: Brazil, Morocco, Scotland
Given the talent level in this group, it’s safe to say Haiti is the easy last place team. Still, the Caribbean island returning to the tournament for the first time in 52 years is an accomplishment. If Haiti was in a less talented group, they would have a better chance to advance.
Brazil and Morocco are easy picks. Both are super talented and aren’t likely to drop to third place. The Atlas Lions are also in their golden era and are one of the top two teams in Africa.
Scotland has a team that could give analysts fits. The Tartans are one of the peskiest teams for any opponent, and they flustered a lot of European rivals the last few years. However, they have also struggled against most teams outside of the continent. There is a lot to like due to the competitive nature Scotland has each match, but there are serious questions whether this team can do enough to make round two. Given how their last two years have gone, the Tartans have a better chance than lesser talented third place teams on this list.
Group D: U.S., Paraguay, Türkiye
This may be the hardest group to predict because all four teams are solid and all have a lot of flaws. There is little doubt three of the four will make the second round. The question is which team will be at the bottom.
The U.S. and Paraguay seem to be the top two teams in Group D. Paraguay’s offensive depth makes them a problem for all three opponents, especially Australia and Turkiye. The U.S. has home pitch advantage and can at least tie two of their opponents.
Türkiye is a good pick for third place. Still young and shoddy at times, the Crescent-Stars impressed in the 2024 Euros and tied with Spain a few months ago. If Türkiye plays well, they could go far in this tournament.
The odd team out is Australia. There is nothing the Socceroos do that can counter the other three teams or gain advantages. If Australia was in a weaker group, they would qualify as a solid second round pick.
Group E: Germany, Ecuador, Ivory Coast
It is safe to say Curaçao is the easy team out for this group. It’s impressive they clinched their first ever World Cup spot, but The Blue Wave has no chance of winning or tying a game.
That’s because Germany, Ecuador and Ivory Coast will all clinch a spot to round two. All three are veteran teams and have gotten better since 2022. It will be hard for a lot of teams to eliminate the Group E hydra.
Group F: Netherlands, Sweden
The most veteran and skilled team is easily the Netherlands. Their coaching, scoring depth and defense can go blow for blow with any of the top football teams. Meanwhile, Japan and Tunisia don’t have enough of either. Neither should be good enough to make round two.
That leaves Sweden, one of the last teams to clinch a World Cup berth, as the second team that should advance to the elimination stage. The Swedes impressed and played better throughout the last nine months. That streak should continue these next few weeks.
Group G: Belgium, Iran, Egypt
Group G is a group that on paper, one looks at and assumes the two or three teams that advance will stick. Well, one of these teams didn’t make round two back in 2022 despite having every available advantage, and one team can only stay in Mexico given the current world conflicts in west Asia. Every match in this group will be a must-watch because the results might not have been the same if Iran was allowed to stay in the western U.S.
It seems New Zealand is the odd team out regardless. They don’t have the offensive firepower or shutdown defense either of the three teams have, and that might be the only decisive part of this group. The added number of teams is the one factor that should get the underwhelming trio of Belgium, Egypt and Iran into round two. Although we’ve seen stranger things happen (specifically with Belgium), the more interesting part is what happens if and when Iran advances.
Group H: Spain, Uruguay
This is the easiest of the 12 groups to predict. Spain is disputably the best football team in the world while Uruguay remains a hard-to-beat veteran and feisty team. Saudi Arabia and Cabo Verde are the complete opposite. The end.
Group I: France, Senegal, Norway
Group I is the second hardest group to predict. Three teams will advance, and like Group D, one team will be left out. That team is likely Iraq, the last team that clinched a spot for the tournament. A big reason is because of how talented and durable the other three teams are. France is one of five favorites to make the final. Norway has the best scorer in Erling Haaland and a solid team that plays well around him. Senegal is one of the most balanced teams in the tournament and the best squad in Africa. This should be a fun group to watch every match.
Group J: Austria, Argentina, Algeria
The reigning champs and the deep, veteran Austria seem easy locks to advance. The big question is whether Jordan or Algeria get to advance and play an elimination match. Algeria strangely has impressed throughout the last calendar year and knows how to play to their strengths and ties rather than taking unnecessary losses. This website believes The Desert Warriors will advance, but another team could do better in the third place points total and keep them on the outside looking in.
Group K: Colombia, Portugal, Democratic Republic of the Congo
There might not be more pressure on a South American team (outside of maybe Brazil) than Colombia to make a deep run and get to the World Cup final. Los Cafeteros were one goal away from winning Copa America and have overwhelmed their global opponents. Colombia should be a favorite to win their first few elimination games after group play.
If Portugal can play their own style with their younger stars and not worry about when to play aging forward Cristiano Ronaldo, they should be heavy favorites to claim second place. The Democratic Republic of the Congo is the decisive pick for a third place, second round team with their offensive talent and shutdown defense. Uzbekistan should be applauded for making it to the tournament for the first time since the USSR’s dissolution, but there is little they can do to stop the other three teams.
Group L: Croatia, England, Panama
Two veteran European teams with grizzled captains will give it one more go this tournament. It’s almost certain Croatia’s Luka Modric and England’s Harry Kane will play in their last World Cup given their ages and the direction to which the national teams are transitioning. Yet, both teams have enough star power to advance to the elimination round.
The biggest question for this group is can Ghana or Panama solidify into third place and make the round of 32? Ghana is not as well rounded as Panama and lacks firepower on offense. Panama has proven they can hold their own against stronger North and South American teams. Panama could strangely be a team nobody expects to advance and then wins two elimination matches after group play.
2022 Group Play predictions: 12-4
JD's Sportscorner 