The 2025-26 NBA regular season ended in anticipation of a thrilling western conference playoff race. MVP front-runner Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder are again the favorites to make a deep run to the championship while the young Spurs want to prove they can compete and beat the best veteran teams. No one should underestimate the resurgence of Denver or Houston. Oklahoma City remains the team everyone wants out in order to have a fair chance at the finals. Four talented squads will advance to the second round. Time to break down which four have the best chance.
#8 Phoenix Suns v. #1 Oklahoma City Thunder
Even if Jordan Ott doesn’t win coach of the year, he will be heavily considered. Nobody expected Phoenix to make the playoffs after a massive roster overhaul less than a year ago. Despite the changes, the Suns physical play on both ends of the court makes them a threat.
However, Phoenix drew the reigning NBA champion Thunder. Oklahoma City has the deepest roster of any playoff team and will pick apart whatever the Suns throw at them.
Prediction: Thunder win series 4-0
#7 Portland Trailblazers v. #2 San Antonio Spurs
If San Antonio had to face the winner of Golden State v. Los Angeles and not Portland v. Phoenix (which was the former), that would be a more interesting series. The Spurs return to the playoffs means a lot of the star-studded talent will face growing pains and make a lot of unusual mistakes they wouldn’t make in the regular season.
San Antonio is lucky they get the Trailblazers. Like the Spurs, Portland hasn’t made the postseason in a long time. Despite a few veterans on each team, this series should heavily favor the San Antonio because of how both teams mirror playoff inexperience with each other and how the Spurs have a deeper, more talented team. This should be a fast series.
Prediction: Spurs win series 4-1
#6 Minnesota Timberwolves v. #3 Denver Nuggets
Talk about a tilt in rivalry. If this matchup took place three years ago, Minnesota would have had the edge with how their bigs could smother Denver’s star players. After some roster tweaks the last few years, the Timberwolves don’t have that advantage. It will cost them in this round.
Nuggets center Nikola Jokic should have one of the best series of his life versus Minnesota center Rudy Gobert. Despite a 12 game winning streak, coach David Adelman made sure to limit the minutes of star point guard Jamal Murray and forward Aaron Gordon. Having both at full health is important to counter Minnesota forward Julius Randle and the guard duo of Mike Conley and Anthony Edwards.
The Timberwolves have been a streaky team most of the year bogged down by a terrible free throw percentage and turnover issues. Denver is a veteran championship team that knows how to do the little things well and not give their opponents chances to attempt many comebacks. This could be a fast series.
Prediction: Nuggets win series 4-1
#5 Houston Rockets v. #4 Los Angeles Lakers
On paper, this should be one of the best first round series in either conference. In reality, it’s all Lakers. Los Angeles dominated the regular season series against Houston no matter who played. More importantly, the Rockets younger core struggled against a swarming Lakers defense in the last two matchups. Poor shooting combined with the return of Los Angeles star point guard Luka Doncic makes this a less than ideal matchup for Houston.
A sliver of hope for coach Ime Udoka’s roster lies in one Laker missing the first round. Austin Reaves will be out as his grade two oblique muscle strain has not fully healed. That means Los Angeles has to rely more on scoring inside the three point line and playing a more physical style than they’re used to. That still favors them since the younger Rockets are not used to this style and played poorly against whatever the Lakers used against them most of the season. At least Houston can steal a game or two more than many expected with the loss of Reaves.
Prediction: Lakers win series 4-1
Regular season western conference playoffs and play-in predictions record: 6-4
JD's Sportscorner 