The remaining two teams in the NBA west had a good second round. San Antonio and Oklahoma City were more committed and better coached than the teams in Minnesota and Los Angeles. While the Thunder are on a roll, there’s a lot of hype on the Spurs because they figured out how to beat the reigning champions multiple times. One of these two teams must advance to the championship round. Time to break down which one has the best chance to represent the west in the finals.
#2 San Antonio Spurs v. #1 Oklahoma City Thunder
Stephon Castle (5) v. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (2) will be a fun matchup to watch.
Similar to last series with Minnesota and San Antonio, the easy pick between a reigning champion versus an inexperienced playoff team would result in the former winning this round. In fact, history has shown this happening the majority of the time. However, the Spurs are not your average inexperienced playoff team.
If anything, this could be utter domination by San Antonio. Phenom center Victor Wembanyama could be held in check at times by Timberwolves center Rudy Gobert last series. At times. The centers who must face him in the conference finals don’t stand a chance. Wembanyama takes playing against Chet Holmgren personally, and Isaiah Hartenstein can only do so much against the Spurs best player.
It’s possible no one on Oklahoma City’s roster can stop center Victor Wembanyama (1) this round.
If Victor Wembanyama doesn’t dominate each game, then Oklahoma City’s guard depth will have their hands full. Yes, reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Alex Caruso, Jared McCain and Jalen Williams are a great core of players. Yet, San Antonio’s core of Stephon Castle, De’Aaron Fox, Devin Vassell and Dylan Harper have put up record numbers throughout these playoffs.
The Thunder have playoff experience on their side and know what it’s like to play this late in the season. While the Spurs will have some struggles for at least two games, they are the better team. Center Victor Wembanyama takes playing against them personally and usually plays his best basketball against Chet Holmgren.
Prediction: Spurs win the western conference and series 4-2
Western conference second round playoff picks record: 2-0
The 2025-26 NBA regular season ended in anticipation of a thrilling western conference playoff race. MVP front-runner Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and the Thunder are again the favorites to make a deep run to the championship while the young Spurs want to prove they can compete and beat the best veteran teams. No one should underestimate the resurgence of Denver or Houston. Oklahoma City remains the team everyone wants out in order to have a fair chance at the finals. Four talented squads will advance to the second round. Time to break down which four have the best chance.
#8 Phoenix Suns v. #1 Oklahoma City Thunder
There will be a lot of pressure on Devin Booker (1) to lead Phoenix against the reigning NBA champion Thunder.
Even if Jordan Ott doesn’t win coach of the year, he will be heavily considered. Nobody expected Phoenix to make the playoffs after a massive roster overhaul less than a year ago. Despite the changes, the Suns physical play on both ends of the court makes them a threat.
However, Phoenix drew the reigning NBA champion Thunder. Oklahoma City has the deepest roster of any playoff team and will pick apart whatever the Suns throw at them.
Prediction: Thunder win series 4-0
#7 Portland Trailblazers v. #2 San Antonio Spurs
Portland faces an uphill battle against the deep, talented Spurs.
If San Antonio had to face the winner of Golden State v. Los Angeles and not Portland v. Phoenix (which was the former), that would be a more interesting series. The Spurs return to the playoffs means a lot of the star-studded talent will face growing pains and make a lot of unusual mistakes they wouldn’t make in the regular season.
San Antonio is lucky they get the Trailblazers. Like the Spurs, Portland hasn’t made the postseason in a long time. Despite a few veterans on each team, this series should heavily favor the San Antonio because of how both teams mirror playoff inexperience with each other and how the Spurs have a deeper, more talented team. This should be a fast series.
Prediction: Spurs win series 4-1
#6 Minnesota Timberwolves v. #3 Denver Nuggets
Center Nikola Jokic makes Minnesota’s defense look silly when they played this season.
Talk about a tilt in rivalry. If this matchup took place three years ago, Minnesota would have had the edge with how their bigs could smother Denver’s star players. After some roster tweaks the last few years, the Timberwolves don’t have that advantage. It will cost them in this round.
Nuggets center Nikola Jokic should have one of the best series of his life versus Minnesota center Rudy Gobert. Despite a 12 game winning streak, coach David Adelman made sure to limit the minutes of star point guard Jamal Murray and forward Aaron Gordon. Having both at full health is important to counter Minnesota forward Julius Randle and the guard duo of Mike Conley and Anthony Edwards.
The Timberwolves have been a streaky team most of the year bogged down by a terrible free throw percentage and turnover issues. Denver is a veteran championship team that knows how to do the little things well and not give their opponents chances to attempt many comebacks. This could be a fast series.
Prediction: Nuggets win series 4-1
#5 Houston Rockets v. #4 Los Angeles Lakers
Houston’s Kevin Durant (left) and Los Angeles’ Luka Doncic (right) shared a Christmas day moment in an eye-opening Rockets win.
On paper, this should be one of the best first round series in either conference. In reality, it’s all Lakers. Los Angeles dominated the regular season series against Houston no matter who played. More importantly, the Rockets younger core struggled against a swarming Lakers defense in the last two matchups. Poor shooting combined with the return of Los Angeles star point guard Luka Doncic makes this a less than ideal matchup for Houston.
A sliver of hope for coach Ime Udoka’s roster lies in one Laker missing the first round. Austin Reaves will be out as his grade two oblique muscle strain has not fully healed. That means Los Angeles has to rely more on scoring inside the three point line and playing a more physical style than they’re used to. That still favors them since the younger Rockets are not used to this style and played poorly against whatever the Lakers used against them most of the season. At least Houston can steal a game or two more than many expected with the loss of Reaves.
Prediction: Lakers win series 4-1
Regular season western conference playoffs and play-in predictions record: 6-4
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