The last two years have been tough for the American Football Conference. Despite more competition with Kansas City, the AFC is much weaker compared to the NFC. That weakness has led all 16 teams in this conference to re-think and approach roster construction differently. While the Chiefs, Bills, Ravens and Texans are favorites to reach the Super Bowl, at least a half dozen other teams are playoff hopefuls, and two plan to defend their conference championship appearance. Of the four divisions, the west is the strongest. Meanwhile, the other three divisions could have any team come up on top and no wild card team make the postseason.
As all 16 AFC teams prepare for another season, the conference must continue to address their management issues, roster construction/adjustments, and how to win another Super Bowl. It’s time to break down which seven teams in the AFC have the best chance of reaching the playoffs in 2027.
AFC North: Baltimore Ravens
No team was sicker Seattle’s head coach Mike Macdonald won Super Bowl 60 last season than the Baltimore Ravens. Macdonald was the architect of an elite, shut-down defense before the Seahawks hired him (after letting go of their all-time winningest head coach Pete Carroll) in 2024 and the Ravens continued to support John Harbaugh. Owner Steve Bisciotti quickly fired Harbaugh and brought in the closest coach/person to Mike Macdonald they could find: Chargers defensive coordinator Jesse Minter. Minter was also on Baltimore’s staff when Macdonald ran the defense.
This season, Baltimore should return to what many were used to seeing from them before the last two seasons. Jesse Minter will have some rough patches, but the veteran, exceptionally talented roster will make his first year as a head coach smoother than what most first year hires will have. What helps Minter more now will be how the other three north teams won’t be much of a factor toward their division winning paths. Any positive gains Cleveland and Pittsburgh make on offense this season will be erased by their depleted or older defenses. Cincinnati is elite on offense and special teams, but they have no linebacker or secondary depth. That will be exposed as the season goes on and injuries become a factor.
East: Buffalo Bills, New England Patriots
The east could be the hardest division to figure out in the conference this season. Yes, Buffalo and New England are the front runners to win the division. However, both teams could face a series of setbacks this season. While the Bills have a new head coach and more importantly, a season long experiment switching from a 4-3 defensive scheme to a 3-4 one, they are more poised to win the east.
Buffalo’s Joe Brady will have a lot to prove this season. Like New England, the Bills will have a rough first half to their schedule. One positive they have over the Patriots is the lack of off-field distractions. Buffalo also addressed their position needs in the offseason, adding receiver DJ Moore, linebacker Bradley Chubb, center Lloyd Cushenberry and safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson. The Bills could have a slow start, but watch out the closer we get to 2027.
While Buffalo will be scrutinized for their play, New England will be criticized and watched closely on and off the field. General manager Eliot Wolf had a great off-season, adding more talent at wide receiver with the signing of Romeo Doubs and trading for disgruntled Philadelphia star A.J. Brown. Wolf also bulked up the defense by signing turnover magnet safety Kevin Byard III and linebacker Dre’Mont Jones. In many ways, the Patriots have a better roster than they did last season.
Despite New England’s active offseason, they will have a rough time this year. The Diana Russini scandal that almost every major sports outlet, journalist and reporter tried to downplay and cover up in the offseason will be in front of every NFL fandoms’ mind, especially with fanbases of teams New England plays this year. Speaking of schedule, the Patriots one is just as vicious as Buffalo’s. New England may not have won the Super Bowl last season, but they still went to the championship round and won a conference championship. They have just as large a target on their back as Seattle, Los Angeles and Denver. This could be a great season for the Patriots, but it could also be a hellacious year that won’t ease up on or off the field. As Mike Vrabel could learn from his predecessor, sometimes less is more.
South: Houston Texans
On paper, the South is the second best division in the AFC. On the field, there are both a lot of inexperience and question marks. Tennessee will have more growing pains on the offensive line, defense and special teams. Indianapolis has a decaying roster and Jacksonville will face regression on both offense and defense.
That means Houston is the de facto best team. The Texans beefed up depth on the offensive line and wide receiver after last year’s season ending injuries to Nico Collins and Dalton Schultz. On defense, Houston retains almost all their star playmakers in the secondary and even added more talent like former Philadelphia safety and defensive captain Reed Blankenship. Starting quarterback C.J. Stroud IV now has no excuses heading into his fourth season. If he plays poorly this year and the Texans don’t have a deep playoff run, Houston will look for another quarterback to compliment a Super Bowl worthy roster.
West: Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Chargers, Denver Broncos
Great news everybody! No prediction in the AFC West this year about every team making the playoffs! Las Vegas should have a bold and educational first season with Klint Kubiak as head coach, but the other three teams will capitalize on the Raiders’ early season mistakes to keep them at the bottom for now. The other three teams are serious contenders to at least make it to the divisional round.
Kansas City will again lead the way. Until head coach Andy Reid’s brain stops working, quarterback Patrick Mahomes II can’t throw a ball anymore or defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo forgets what a defense is, the Chiefs will remain the favorites to go all the way in the conference. Love it or hate it, that is how all 15 teams in the AFC see it every season. Mahomes back to full health is the deciding factor for which team takes the division.
Kansas City will have two teams in the division nipping at their heels. Throughout most of the Reid-Mahomes era, Denver and Los Angeles have played them close, and this year will be no different. The Chargers look to at least be second best in the west with the addition of former head coach Mike McDaniel at offensive coordinator. Los Angeles should have one of the best offenses in the NFL…if they can get past a brutal seven game schedule that has them facing Buffalo, reigning Super Bowl champion Seattle, Denver, Kansas City, the Rams, Houston, and Baltimore. If the Chargers leave that seven game stretch over .500, they will coast into the playoffs.
Los Angeles could lose out on the division title because of the defense and special teams. New defensive coordinator Chris O’Leary has his hands full with an aging defense that features solid depth but no standout players outside of safety Derwin James Jr. and tackle Teair Tart. Jesse Minter made Los Angeles’ defense one of the more appreciated units in the NFL. O’Leary’s defense may not feature a lot of the same creativity and precision. As for the special teams, kicker Cameron Dicker had one of his best years last season. Those who have followed the NFL for a while are aware the Chargers have been plagued by special teams problems when everything else goes well and no one expects it. Given how great they were last year, a regression is likely.
It was hard to pick which NFL team would round out the top seven in this conference. Any of the south teams (after Houston) have a good case to be playoff bound. The Jets are a great dark horse pick, but they don’t have the talent to enter this conversation. That leaves Denver, which will be an interesting team to watch throughout the season.
Like New England, the Broncos will face more resistance just for playing in the conference championship. While Denver played an ugly game outside of their first score, they took out the Super Bowl favorite Bills and upended the franchise’s title aspirations with Sean McDermott as head coach. The Broncos will also face similar offensive issues much like they did last season with quarterback play. Inconsistent starter Bo Nix returns after he broke his leg earlier in January.
The biggest issue Denver could face is with play-calling. Offensive coordinator Davis Webb will call plays instead of head coach Sean Payton because Payton desperately wanted him to stay on staff. Sean Payton will have to give Webb a good amount of autonomy throughout the season since the promotion, but many wonder if that will be the case the longer the season goes and Denver plays to secure a high playoff seed, much less a playoff game. Expect a lot of Broncos drama this season, but enough determination from them to clinch one of the lower two wildcard seeds.
Total 2025-2026 regular and postseason AFC picks: 7-6
JD's Sportscorner 