NFL Week Four Winners and Losers

What an exciting week four! We saw jaw-dropping touchdown catches, an upset in Philadelphia, the Jets getting their first interception for the first time in almost two years, and three other teams remain undefeated after four games. The first Sunday of October delivered surprising results and some exciting divisional matchups. So, let’s take a look at what stood out to start the month.

Winners: Ben Johnson

Chicago stunned viewers with their total destruction of Philadelphia last Monday night. Many analysts believed the Bears wouldn’t do that to the Jets yesterday. The common thought was if Chicago won, it would be close. The Bears proved more people wrong in their dismantling of New York on Sunday afternoon.

Instead of riding the hot-hand at quarterback with Case Keenum, head coach Ben Johnson wisely reverted to top backup Tyson Bagent since he was back to full health after suffering a concussion in practice two weeks ago. Johnson’s game-plan with and without Bagent was excellent start to finish.

Chicago scorched the Jets defense in the first quarter. After a bizarre turnover on downs, the Bears scored a touchdown the next possession. Chicago mercilessly ran the ball against the improved New York defense, and ended the first half with a double digit lead.

The Bears did more in the second half despite giving up nine more points. The Jets offense scored a touchdown when quarterback Geno Smith found Isaiah Williams for 58 yards, but that was their only big play of the game. It was also the last possession New York had as Chicago went on a masterful eight and a half minute final drive to close out the game. The Bears offense ended the game with more first downs than the Jets offense had plays.

Chicago’s defense sacked Smith three times and limited New York’s passing attack to 61 yards before the big play. Defensive coordinator Dennis Allen has more to work with this season because of Johnson’s focus on the offense and clock management. ESPN Insights backs this up with a stat featured on Sportscenter with Scott Van Pelt late Sunday night stating Chicago had the fourth highest play differential in a game since 1970, and the best first down differential in franchise history. The Bears ran 57 more plays and had 27 more first downs than the Jets. Game preparation has improved and is better even on shorter weeks. It’s clear Ben Johnson was the perfect hire to rejuvenate this franchise.

New England Patriots

After their trip to Super Bowl 60, it is clear New England is struggling to regain their 2025-26 form. While there have been high moments, the Patriots hadn’t played a good game…until Sunday. It came at what was possibly the most important week of the season as New England earned a needed win in Buffalo.

Head coach Mike Vrabel had everyone ready to play. The Patriots scored two touchdowns on their first three drives of the game. Despite forcing some turnovers in the first half, the undefeated Bills led by three points. Vrabel outsmarted rookie head coach Joe Brady in the second half and frustrated Buffalo’s offense.

New England scored a touchdown to start the third quarter and shut down the Bills offense until mid-fourth. Once Buffalo got the lead back, the Patriots offense wasted no time. Quarterback Drake Maye led a perfect scoring drive capped off with a one-handed touchdown grab by receiver Efton Chism III. Maye then converted a bold two point conversion to keep the lead at three. That forced the Bills to either play for a tie to reach overtime or win the game within the final 62 seconds.

Buffalo’s offense couldn’t score again and the Bills lost their first home game in their new stadium and first game of the season to the rival Patriots. Not only did New England win a crucial game to get them back to .500 and one game out of first place in the AFC East, they won without star cornerback Christian Gonzalez playing a snap. New England’s other two rivals lost, keeping the east a two team race the Patriots can focus on. One week in the NFL can change a lot for any given team.

Kenneth Walker III

There wasn’t a more needed and better addition for any team in last offseason’s free agency like runningback and reigning Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III was for Kansas City. The Chiefs struggled to find a crucial playmaker the last few off-seasons who can take pressure off elite quarterback Patrick Mahomes II. General manager Brett Veach has come up empty in the last few drafts, and most of the speedy receivers signed in free agency either can’t stay healthy or have hands like a burled oak table when the football gets near them. Veach had a superstar runningback land into his lap this off-season. Kansas City is now the AFC’s best team because of Kenneth Walker III’s play.

The Chiefs played a slugfest Sunday in Las Vegas. The Raiders team many are used to watching every year has become dangerous and not dreadful. Without Kenneth Walker III, Kansas City would have lost. The Chiefs from the last couple seasons might have done enough to get a field goal and a one point lead near the end of the game, but Las Vegas probably would have scored a game winning touchdown to stay undefeated. With Walker III, Kansas City took over the game and set the Raiders on their heels.

The most pivotal moments in the Chiefs win were when Kenneth Walker III scored two straight touchdowns and gave Kansas City their first and only double digit lead of the game. Walker finished the game with 22 rushes for 177 yards and two touchdowns. According to Yahoo Sports, he became the third ever runningback to rush for 170 yards at least twice in his team’s first four games of a season. Head coach Andy Reid was careful in the first of two games against Las Vegas to use Walker against a revived defense. When Reid did go to Kenneth Walker III, there was no doubt who the best player was on the field.

League MVP has unfortunately turned into a quarterback award and it shouldn’t. There is a great argument that the NFL MVP frontrunner should be Kenneth Walker III. Kansas City is nowhere close to undefeated or even at a winning record without him.

Carolina Panthers

Believe it or not, this could be the year the NFC South playoff race isn’t filled with mediocre at best, sub-.500 teams. New Orleans will be a threat to win the division most of the season, but Carolina finally looks like the playoff team many longed to see with head coach Dave Canales and franchise star quarterback Bryce Young. Sunday night’s impressive home win against Detroit showed more proof this team could go far and do damage in the playoffs.

The Panthers offense demolished a terrible Lions defense with a 450+ yard performance. Even when Detroit’s defense played well, Young completed crucial passes to receiver Tetairoa McMillan to seal the win.

On defense, Carolina suffered more injuries during the game and played without both starting cornerbacks. The Panthers defensive line stepped up and blocked at least four of quarterback Jared Goff’s passes, limited multi-faceted runningback Jahmyr Gibbs to 46 yards on 15 carries, and forced the juggernaut Lions offense into multiple turnovers on downs.

Many viewers didn’t believe or know if the Panthers could keep up their progress after last season’s late surge. It appears the Carolina team that started to put it together last season is a legitimate playoff threat in the NFC. Hopefully the rest of the south is on notice and actually plays good football outside of one team.

Losers: Dante Stills

Field goals are pivotal points in an American football game because one defining moment can occur for either team. Usually viewers see the team attempting the field goal as the one with the most pressure to mess up and make a terrible mistake. Once in a while, it happens with a team defending against the kick, and it can lead to serious changes. Arizona had one Sunday in New York and it cost them their second win of the season.

In one of the biggest changes during an NFL game this season, New York’s field goal on a fourth and eight was called back because of a holding penalty on Cardinals defensive lineman Dante Stills. Many argued online it was not a penalty for various reasons, but irrefutable video proof shows Stills guilty of holding onto and dragging an offensive lineman towards him. The penalty gave the Giants a fresh set of downs, and they went on to score a touchdown and re-gain the lead. New York never trailed again after this penalty.

Dante Stills isn’t the sole reason Arizona lost, but he is the embodiment of how the Cardinals remain a sloppy team while still trying to get things right. A third year veteran shouldn’t make egregious mistakes like that on a pivotal play. Arizona is 1-3, and instead of talking about how the Cardinals somehow remain in the NFC West divisional race, analysts are left wondering how soon rookie quarterback Carson Beck will make his debut if Arizona falls any further in the overall playoff race. American football is a team sport, and it can take just one player to screw everything up.

Green Bay Packers, even in a win

If you were forced to watch Green Bay’s ugly win in Tampa Bay on FOX, you at least deserve financial compensation. That was a game no one wanted to win and fewer wanted to watch. Both Bay teams are awful this season for various reasons, but unfortunately, neither team wanted to settle for a tie and go their separate ways.

At this point, there’s not much else to say about the Buccaneers. Yes, rookie quarterback Jalon Daniels was ok in his NFL debut. Unfortunately for Daniels, he was a rookie in his first game. There were mistakes he probably shouldn’t have made in a winnable game. It’s not as if the other 52 Tampa players stepped up anyway.

The Packers are a legitimate cause for concern. After an ugly 1-1 start to the season, Green Bay was thumped at home in week three in Michael Penix Jr.’s first game back with Atlanta. There should have been much more urgency built up over a week and a half heading into Sunday. The Packers not only lacked it after the second touchdown, but they were fortunate to come away with a win after a turnover filled fourth quarter. The Buccaneers’ turnover on downs on their final possession of the game cemented how Green Bay is both lucky and not a serious playoff contending team.

Much has been said about head coach Todd Bowles getting fired in Florida, but Matt LaFleur is on the hot seat too. It would not be surprising if both teams wind up going for full re-builds after the regular season ends.

Vance Joseph

Last week this site raved about the play of Talanoa Hufanga and how he can be the center-piece of an elite defense if he stays healthy. Turns out that’s going to happen after Denver lost both their starting cornerbacks to injuries in a disastrous loss at San Francisco.

Like most of the last full calendar year of games watching the Broncos attempt to play football, Sean Payton’s team played a slow, dismal first half. The biggest development of a 3-3 tie after two quarters was an Achilles injury to defensive player of the year winner and all-pro cornerback Pat Surtain II. Riley Moss also left because of injury, and that left Denver vulnerable in the passing game despite the 49ers having an extremely thin receiving core. The advantage still should have been with defensive coordinator Vance Joseph.

That was not the case. San Francisco flipped a switch and scored three straight touchdowns in the second half. A special teams fumble leading to the first score aside, Joseph couldn’t stop anything Kyle Shanahan’s offense ran without their two starting corners. Quarterback Brock Purdy, runningback Christian McCaffrey and tight-end George Kittle bullied the Broncos defense. Denver led the league in redzone scoring defense last year. San Francisco scored two of their three touchdowns in the redzone with little resistance.

It’s fair to say the Broncos loss can be blamed on injuries, but San Francisco didn’t stretch the field most of the game even with the starting cornerbacks out. Kittle had a 56 yard touchdown catch and run after he beat all of Denver’s defense (including Hufanga) by himself. It’s probably an off-game for Joseph’s unit, but bad performances like that could be a reason the Broncos miss the playoffs.

Miami Dolphins

There are five winless teams at the end of week four. Of the five, the most unfortunate one has to be Miami. Despite playing passionate football, the Dolphins seemingly cannot do enough to steal or seal a win.

Thankfully this team is not the 2007 team that went 1-15 (this website kept up with their games that year. Trust us, it was ugly), but it might not fare better because there’s a severe lack of talent on the roster. To make things worse, most of the talented players landed on IR before October.

Sunday was another strange low for Miami. Minnesota won their second game of their undefeated stretch without scoring a touchdown. It’s the first time since the 1923 Chicago Cardinals any NFL team has done that. The Vikings scored 15 points and could have scored a touchdown at the end, but decided to down the ball and run out the rest of the clock.

However, the game was almost different and the Dolphins almost pulled out a win. Receiver Chris Bell beat Minnesota’s secondary and scored a long yardage touchdown…until it turned out the ref flagged him for stepping out of bounds before catching the ball. Miami punted the next play.

Head coach Jeff Hafley is doing a great job of keeping morale in the locker room. There are good players on the Dolphins roster, but even one or two mistakes m make Miami a serious candidate for 0-17.

2026 AFC Playoff Picks

The last two years have been tough for the American Football Conference. Despite more competition with Kansas City, the AFC is much weaker compared to the NFC. That weakness has led all 16 teams in this conference to re-think and approach roster construction differently. While the Chiefs, Bills, Ravens and Texans are favorites to reach the Super Bowl, at least a half dozen other teams are playoff hopefuls, and two plan to defend their conference championship appearance. Of the four divisions, the west is the strongest. Meanwhile, the other three divisions could have any team come up on top and no wild card team make the postseason.

As all 16 AFC teams prepare for another season, the conference must continue to address their management issues, roster construction/adjustments, and how to win another Super Bowl. It’s time to break down which seven teams in the AFC have the best chance of reaching the playoffs in 2027.

AFC North: Baltimore Ravens

A fully healthy Lamar Jackson (8) and new head coach with better game-planning makes Baltimore the easiest choice to win the north.

No team was sicker Seattle’s head coach Mike Macdonald won Super Bowl 60 last season than the Baltimore Ravens. Macdonald was the architect of an elite, shut-down defense before the Seahawks hired him (after letting go of their all-time winningest head coach Pete Carroll) in 2024 and the Ravens continued to support John Harbaugh. Owner Steve Bisciotti quickly fired Harbaugh and brought in the closest coach/person to Mike Macdonald they could find: Chargers defensive coordinator Jesse Minter. Minter was also on Baltimore’s staff when Macdonald ran the defense.

This season, Baltimore should return to what many were used to seeing from them before the last two seasons. Jesse Minter will have some rough patches, but the veteran, exceptionally talented roster will make his first year as a head coach smoother than what most first year hires will have. What helps Minter more now will be how the other three north teams won’t be much of a factor toward their division winning paths. Any positive gains Cleveland and Pittsburgh make on offense this season will be erased by their depleted or older defenses. Cincinnati is elite on offense and special teams, but they have no linebacker or secondary depth. That will be exposed as the season goes on and injuries become a factor.

East: Buffalo Bills, New England Patriots

Buffalo is taking a chance with their Super Bowl window after they hired a new, inexperienced head coach take over. Former head coach Sean McDermott got the Bills close to multiple championship appearances.

The east could be the hardest division to figure out in the conference this season. Yes, Buffalo and New England are the front runners to win the division. However, both teams could face a series of setbacks this season. While the Bills have a new head coach and more importantly, a season long experiment switching from a 4-3 defensive scheme to a 3-4 one, they are more poised to win the east.

Buffalo’s Joe Brady will have a lot to prove this season. Like New England, the Bills will have a rough first half to their schedule. One positive they have over the Patriots is the lack of off-field distractions. Buffalo also addressed their position needs in the offseason, adding receiver DJ Moore, linebacker Bradley Chubb, center Lloyd Cushenberry and safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson. The Bills could have a slow start, but watch out the closer we get to 2027.

A.J. Brown was the most coveted player by New England’s front office, coaching staff and…Diana Russini? What a season this will be for the Patriots.

While Buffalo will be scrutinized for their play, New England will be criticized and watched closely on and off the field. General manager Eliot Wolf had a great off-season, adding more talent at wide receiver with the signing of Romeo Doubs and trading for disgruntled Philadelphia star A.J. Brown. Wolf also bulked up the defense by signing turnover magnet safety Kevin Byard III and linebacker Dre’Mont Jones. In many ways, the Patriots have a better roster than they did last season.

Despite New England’s active offseason, they will have a rough time this year. The Diana Russini scandal that almost every major sports outlet, journalist and reporter tried to downplay and cover up in the offseason will be in front of every NFL fandoms’ mind, especially with fanbases of teams New England plays this year. Speaking of schedule, the Patriots one is just as vicious as Buffalo’s. New England may not have won the Super Bowl last season, but they still went to the championship round and won a conference championship. They have just as large a target on their back as Seattle, Los Angeles and Denver. This could be a great season for the Patriots, but it could also be a hellacious year that won’t ease up on or off the field. As Mike Vrabel could learn from his predecessor, sometimes less is more.

South: Houston Texans

Houston made a smart move this season extending defensive end Will Anderson Jr. He’s a reason the Texans have one of the NFL’s best defenses.

On paper, the South is the second best division in the AFC. On the field, there are both a lot of inexperience and question marks. Tennessee will have more growing pains on the offensive line, defense and special teams. Indianapolis has a decaying roster and Jacksonville will face regression on both offense and defense.

That means Houston is the de facto best team. The Texans beefed up depth on the offensive line and wide receiver after last year’s season ending injuries to Nico Collins and Dalton Schultz. On defense, Houston retains almost all their star playmakers in the secondary and even added more talent like former Philadelphia safety and defensive captain Reed Blankenship. Starting quarterback C.J. Stroud IV now has no excuses heading into his fourth season. If he plays poorly this year and the Texans don’t have a deep playoff run, Houston will look for another quarterback to compliment a Super Bowl worthy roster.

West: Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Chargers, Denver Broncos

Kansas City’s odds to return to the Super Bowl improved when they signed Super Bowl 60 MVP Kenneth Walker III in free agency.

Great news everybody! No prediction in the AFC West this year about every team making the playoffs! Las Vegas should have a bold and educational first season with Klint Kubiak as head coach, but the other three teams will capitalize on the Raiders’ early season mistakes to keep them at the bottom for now. The other three teams are serious contenders to at least make it to the divisional round.

Kansas City will again lead the way. Until head coach Andy Reid’s brain stops working, quarterback Patrick Mahomes II can’t throw a ball anymore or defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo forgets what a defense is, the Chiefs will remain the favorites to go all the way in the conference. Love it or hate it, that is how all 15 teams in the AFC see it every season. Mahomes back to full health is the deciding factor for which team takes the division.

Could this be the season six year veteran Justin Herbert finally wins a playoff game?

Kansas City will have two teams in the division nipping at their heels. Throughout most of the Reid-Mahomes era, Denver and Los Angeles have played them close, and this year will be no different. The Chargers look to at least be second best in the west with the addition of former head coach Mike McDaniel at offensive coordinator. Los Angeles should have one of the best offenses in the NFL…if they can get past a brutal seven game schedule that has them facing Buffalo, reigning Super Bowl champion Seattle, Denver, Kansas City, the Rams, Houston, and Baltimore. If the Chargers leave that seven game stretch over .500, they will coast into the playoffs.

Los Angeles could lose out on the division title because of the defense and special teams. New defensive coordinator Chris O’Leary has his hands full with an aging defense that features solid depth but no standout players outside of safety Derwin James Jr. and tackle Teair Tart. Jesse Minter made Los Angeles’ defense one of the more appreciated units in the NFL. O’Leary’s defense may not feature a lot of the same creativity and precision. As for the special teams, kicker Cameron Dicker had one of his best years last season. Those who have followed the NFL for a while are aware the Chargers have been plagued by special teams problems when everything else goes well and no one expects it. Given how great they were last year, a regression is likely.

Expect this look on Sean Payton’s face for a good part of the 2026-27 season!

It was hard to pick which NFL team would round out the top seven in this conference. Any of the south teams (after Houston) have a good case to be playoff bound. The Jets are a great dark horse pick, but they don’t have the talent to enter this conversation. That leaves Denver, which will be an interesting team to watch throughout the season.

Like New England, the Broncos will face more resistance just for playing in the conference championship. While Denver played an ugly game outside of their first score, they took out the Super Bowl favorite Bills and upended the franchise’s title aspirations with Sean McDermott as head coach. The Broncos will also face similar offensive issues much like they did last season with quarterback play. Inconsistent starter Bo Nix returns after he broke his leg earlier in January.

The biggest issue Denver could face is with play-calling. Offensive coordinator Davis Webb will call plays instead of head coach Sean Payton because Payton desperately wanted him to stay on staff. Sean Payton will have to give Webb a good amount of autonomy throughout the season since the promotion, but many wonder if that will be the case the longer the season goes and Denver plays to secure a high playoff seed, much less a playoff game. Expect a lot of Broncos drama this season, but enough determination from them to clinch one of the lower two wildcard seeds.

Total 2025-2026 regular and postseason AFC picks: 7-6