NFL Week Four Winners and Losers

What an exciting week four! We saw jaw-dropping touchdown catches, an upset in Philadelphia, the Jets getting their first interception for the first time in almost two years, and three other teams remain undefeated after four games. The first Sunday of October delivered surprising results and some exciting divisional matchups. So, let’s take a look at what stood out to start the month.

Winners: Ben Johnson

Chicago stunned viewers with their total destruction of Philadelphia last Monday night. Many analysts believed the Bears wouldn’t do that to the Jets yesterday. The common thought was if Chicago won, it would be close. The Bears proved more people wrong in their dismantling of New York on Sunday afternoon.

Instead of riding the hot-hand at quarterback with Case Keenum, head coach Ben Johnson wisely reverted to top backup Tyson Bagent since he was back to full health after suffering a concussion in practice two weeks ago. Johnson’s game-plan with and without Bagent was excellent start to finish.

Chicago scorched the Jets defense in the first quarter. After a bizarre turnover on downs, the Bears scored a touchdown the next possession. Chicago mercilessly ran the ball against the improved New York defense, and ended the first half with a double digit lead.

The Bears did more in the second half despite giving up nine more points. The Jets offense scored a touchdown when quarterback Geno Smith found Isaiah Williams for 58 yards, but that was their only big play of the game. It was also the last possession New York had as Chicago went on a masterful eight and a half minute final drive to close out the game. The Bears offense ended the game with more first downs than the Jets offense had plays.

Chicago’s defense sacked Smith three times and limited New York’s passing attack to 61 yards before the big play. Defensive coordinator Dennis Allen has more to work with this season because of Johnson’s focus on the offense and clock management. ESPN Insights backs this up with a stat featured on Sportscenter with Scott Van Pelt late Sunday night stating Chicago had the fourth highest play differential in a game since 1970, and the best first down differential in franchise history. The Bears ran 57 more plays and had 27 more first downs than the Jets. Game preparation has improved and is better even on shorter weeks. It’s clear Ben Johnson was the perfect hire to rejuvenate this franchise.

New England Patriots

After their trip to Super Bowl 60, it is clear New England is struggling to regain their 2025-26 form. While there have been high moments, the Patriots hadn’t played a good game…until Sunday. It came at what was possibly the most important week of the season as New England earned a needed win in Buffalo.

Head coach Mike Vrabel had everyone ready to play. The Patriots scored two touchdowns on their first three drives of the game. Despite forcing some turnovers in the first half, the undefeated Bills led by three points. Vrabel outsmarted rookie head coach Joe Brady in the second half and frustrated Buffalo’s offense.

New England scored a touchdown to start the third quarter and shut down the Bills offense until mid-fourth. Once Buffalo got the lead back, the Patriots offense wasted no time. Quarterback Drake Maye led a perfect scoring drive capped off with a one-handed touchdown grab by receiver Efton Chism III. Maye then converted a bold two point conversion to keep the lead at three. That forced the Bills to either play for a tie to reach overtime or win the game within the final 62 seconds.

Buffalo’s offense couldn’t score again and the Bills lost their first home game in their new stadium and first game of the season to the rival Patriots. Not only did New England win a crucial game to get them back to .500 and one game out of first place in the AFC East, they won without star cornerback Christian Gonzalez playing a snap. New England’s other two rivals lost, keeping the east a two team race the Patriots can focus on. One week in the NFL can change a lot for any given team.

Kenneth Walker III

There wasn’t a more needed and better addition for any team in last offseason’s free agency like runningback and reigning Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III was for Kansas City. The Chiefs struggled to find a crucial playmaker the last few off-seasons who can take pressure off elite quarterback Patrick Mahomes II. General manager Brett Veach has come up empty in the last few drafts, and most of the speedy receivers signed in free agency either can’t stay healthy or have hands like a burled oak table when the football gets near them. Veach had a superstar runningback land into his lap this off-season. Kansas City is now the AFC’s best team because of Kenneth Walker III’s play.

The Chiefs played a slugfest Sunday in Las Vegas. The Raiders team many are used to watching every year has become dangerous and not dreadful. Without Kenneth Walker III, Kansas City would have lost. The Chiefs from the last couple seasons might have done enough to get a field goal and a one point lead near the end of the game, but Las Vegas probably would have scored a game winning touchdown to stay undefeated. With Walker III, Kansas City took over the game and set the Raiders on their heels.

The most pivotal moments in the Chiefs win were when Kenneth Walker III scored two straight touchdowns and gave Kansas City their first and only double digit lead of the game. Walker finished the game with 22 rushes for 177 yards and two touchdowns. According to Yahoo Sports, he became the third ever runningback to rush for 170 yards at least twice in his team’s first four games of a season. Head coach Andy Reid was careful in the first of two games against Las Vegas to use Walker against a revived defense. When Reid did go to Kenneth Walker III, there was no doubt who the best player was on the field.

League MVP has unfortunately turned into a quarterback award and it shouldn’t. There is a great argument that the NFL MVP frontrunner should be Kenneth Walker III. Kansas City is nowhere close to undefeated or even at a winning record without him.

Carolina Panthers

Believe it or not, this could be the year the NFC South playoff race isn’t filled with mediocre at best, sub-.500 teams. New Orleans will be a threat to win the division most of the season, but Carolina finally looks like the playoff team many longed to see with head coach Dave Canales and franchise star quarterback Bryce Young. Sunday night’s impressive home win against Detroit showed more proof this team could go far and do damage in the playoffs.

The Panthers offense demolished a terrible Lions defense with a 450+ yard performance. Even when Detroit’s defense played well, Young completed crucial passes to receiver Tetairoa McMillan to seal the win.

On defense, Carolina suffered more injuries during the game and played without both starting cornerbacks. The Panthers defensive line stepped up and blocked at least four of quarterback Jared Goff’s passes, limited multi-faceted runningback Jahmyr Gibbs to 46 yards on 15 carries, and forced the juggernaut Lions offense into multiple turnovers on downs.

Many viewers didn’t believe or know if the Panthers could keep up their progress after last season’s late surge. It appears the Carolina team that started to put it together last season is a legitimate playoff threat in the NFC. Hopefully the rest of the south is on notice and actually plays good football outside of one team.

Losers: Dante Stills

Field goals are pivotal points in an American football game because one defining moment can occur for either team. Usually viewers see the team attempting the field goal as the one with the most pressure to mess up and make a terrible mistake. Once in a while, it happens with a team defending against the kick, and it can lead to serious changes. Arizona had one Sunday in New York and it cost them their second win of the season.

In one of the biggest changes during an NFL game this season, New York’s field goal on a fourth and eight was called back because of a holding penalty on Cardinals defensive lineman Dante Stills. Many argued online it was not a penalty for various reasons, but irrefutable video proof shows Stills guilty of holding onto and dragging an offensive lineman towards him. The penalty gave the Giants a fresh set of downs, and they went on to score a touchdown and re-gain the lead. New York never trailed again after this penalty.

Dante Stills isn’t the sole reason Arizona lost, but he is the embodiment of how the Cardinals remain a sloppy team while still trying to get things right. A third year veteran shouldn’t make egregious mistakes like that on a pivotal play. Arizona is 1-3, and instead of talking about how the Cardinals somehow remain in the NFC West divisional race, analysts are left wondering how soon rookie quarterback Carson Beck will make his debut if Arizona falls any further in the overall playoff race. American football is a team sport, and it can take just one player to screw everything up.

Green Bay Packers, even in a win

If you were forced to watch Green Bay’s ugly win in Tampa Bay on FOX, you at least deserve financial compensation. That was a game no one wanted to win and fewer wanted to watch. Both Bay teams are awful this season for various reasons, but unfortunately, neither team wanted to settle for a tie and go their separate ways.

At this point, there’s not much else to say about the Buccaneers. Yes, rookie quarterback Jalon Daniels was ok in his NFL debut. Unfortunately for Daniels, he was a rookie in his first game. There were mistakes he probably shouldn’t have made in a winnable game. It’s not as if the other 52 Tampa players stepped up anyway.

The Packers are a legitimate cause for concern. After an ugly 1-1 start to the season, Green Bay was thumped at home in week three in Michael Penix Jr.’s first game back with Atlanta. There should have been much more urgency built up over a week and a half heading into Sunday. The Packers not only lacked it after the second touchdown, but they were fortunate to come away with a win after a turnover filled fourth quarter. The Buccaneers’ turnover on downs on their final possession of the game cemented how Green Bay is both lucky and not a serious playoff contending team.

Much has been said about head coach Todd Bowles getting fired in Florida, but Matt LaFleur is on the hot seat too. It would not be surprising if both teams wind up going for full re-builds after the regular season ends.

Vance Joseph

Last week this site raved about the play of Talanoa Hufanga and how he can be the center-piece of an elite defense if he stays healthy. Turns out that’s going to happen after Denver lost both their starting cornerbacks to injuries in a disastrous loss at San Francisco.

Like most of the last full calendar year of games watching the Broncos attempt to play football, Sean Payton’s team played a slow, dismal first half. The biggest development of a 3-3 tie after two quarters was an Achilles injury to defensive player of the year winner and all-pro cornerback Pat Surtain II. Riley Moss also left because of injury, and that left Denver vulnerable in the passing game despite the 49ers having an extremely thin receiving core. The advantage still should have been with defensive coordinator Vance Joseph.

That was not the case. San Francisco flipped a switch and scored three straight touchdowns in the second half. A special teams fumble leading to the first score aside, Joseph couldn’t stop anything Kyle Shanahan’s offense ran without their two starting corners. Quarterback Brock Purdy, runningback Christian McCaffrey and tight-end George Kittle bullied the Broncos defense. Denver led the league in redzone scoring defense last year. San Francisco scored two of their three touchdowns in the redzone with little resistance.

It’s fair to say the Broncos loss can be blamed on injuries, but San Francisco didn’t stretch the field most of the game even with the starting cornerbacks out. Kittle had a 56 yard touchdown catch and run after he beat all of Denver’s defense (including Hufanga) by himself. It’s probably an off-game for Joseph’s unit, but bad performances like that could be a reason the Broncos miss the playoffs.

Miami Dolphins

There are five winless teams at the end of week four. Of the five, the most unfortunate one has to be Miami. Despite playing passionate football, the Dolphins seemingly cannot do enough to steal or seal a win.

Thankfully this team is not the 2007 team that went 1-15 (this website kept up with their games that year. Trust us, it was ugly), but it might not fare better because there’s a severe lack of talent on the roster. To make things worse, most of the talented players landed on IR before October.

Sunday was another strange low for Miami. Minnesota won their second game of their undefeated stretch without scoring a touchdown. It’s the first time since the 1923 Chicago Cardinals any NFL team has done that. The Vikings scored 15 points and could have scored a touchdown at the end, but decided to down the ball and run out the rest of the clock.

However, the game was almost different and the Dolphins almost pulled out a win. Receiver Chris Bell beat Minnesota’s secondary and scored a long yardage touchdown…until it turned out the ref flagged him for stepping out of bounds before catching the ball. Miami punted the next play.

Head coach Jeff Hafley is doing a great job of keeping morale in the locker room. There are good players on the Dolphins roster, but even one or two mistakes m make Miami a serious candidate for 0-17.

2026 NFC Playoff Picks

The NFC didn’t just win two straight championships, they demolished their AFC opponents. Philadelphia crushed the AFC best Chiefs two years ago. At one point, they led 40-6 in their game. Then Seattle whooped New England. The Patriots didn’t score until the fourth quarter, and the Seahawks sacked regular season MVP candidate Drake Maye six times. Seattle lost three games last season by a total of nine points. Head coach Mike Macdonald became the eighth head coach in NFL history to win a Super Bowl in his first postseason appearance. The Seahawks and Eagles are the undoubted favorites in the NFC to go far in the playoffs this year.

However, the conference isn’t just a two team race. Many see the Los Angeles Rams as the Super Bowl representative this year. The entire NFC North will be up for grabs and at least one team won’t make the postseason. Dallas, Carolina and Tampa Bay are seen as playoff contenders. Every division race will be a slugfest and have a lot of drama.

Unfortunately, not all the teams mentioned above will make the playoffs since there are seven spots. It’s time to break down which seven teams in the conference have the best chance to reach the playoffs this season. There are a lot of quality teams, so expect a thrilling journey to the end of the season and some surprises based on this years draft and last years film.

NFC West: Seattle Seahawks, Los Angeles Rams

The reigning Super Bowl champion Seahawks brought most of last year’s roster back, including Leonard Williams (left, contract extension) and DeMarcus Lawrence (who announced this is his last season).

There is no doubt two teams make the playoffs in the NFC West. Unlike last season, there won’t be a three team race for first place. Arizona will be a bottom three team in the league and San Francisco’s long mess of a calendar year will continue. Seattle and Los Angeles are two of the three titans in the conference that eyes will lock onto and the NFL will push to the forefront. While both teams play each other twice in the last three weeks of the regular season, pressure will mount each month and both team philosophies will constantly clash in sports media.

East: Philadelphia Eagles, Dallas Cowboys

Head coach Nick Sirianni surprisingly has a lot of pressure on him to do well this season despite getting Philadelphia into the playoffs every year since his hiring and a Super Bowl championship. Despite the harsh criticisms, the offense and defense must play better this year.

Philadelphia is the other juggernaut in this conference and will be a favorite to advance past wild-card weekend. The Eagles traded receiver A.J. Brown after a drama-filled 2025-26 season, replaced their offensive and defensive coordinators, and revamped the offensive line. Better play-calling and play from the offense and secondary should erase speculation of how good head coach Nick Sirianni is at his job.

It is tempting to go with a more talked about team this offseason like New York or if Washington can climb back to where they left off two years ago, but neither seems favorable. The Giants still have a messy roster and the older, more decrepit unit the Commanders trot out won’t be enough to sniff the postseason. That leaves Dallas as a good wildcard pick.

Former Eagles defensive backs coach Christian Parker should have some success this year after Dallas’ defense set franchise and league worst records last season.

The Cowboys wound up surprising viewers last year after the offense and special teams dragged them to a sub-.500 record. Quarterback Dak Prescott was in MVP conversations for half the season and kicker Brandon Aubrey cemented himself as one of the league’s best kickers. The defense was dreadful, but more talent was added this offseason. Head coach Brian Schottenheimer has his players fully committed into practices and games. Though the offense and special teams might not be as stellar this season, the defense should improve and make sure there are some easier wins. That would be good enough to get Dallas back into the postseason.

South: New Orleans Saints

New Orleans is a playoff contender because of head coach Kellen Moore’s optimism and thoroughness.

Yet again, the NFC south will be awful. Do not be surprised if another sub-.500 team makes it out with a home game next wildcard weekend. The true headache is figuring out which team will win this division. All four teams have plenty of weaknesses, but some are too much to look past. Atlanta has no starting caliber quarterback to make a difference, which is a shame because the current roster would give many teams fits in the playoffs if any of the NFL’s top 20 quarterbacks were on the Falcons. Tampa Bay is already fractured because of last year’s dismal end to the regular season and a worse offseason. Carolina will be most analysts’ pick, but season ending injuries to most of their incoming draft class and defensive talent means this could be another year of dreadful play from the Panthers. There is one team that stands out though.

That would be New Orleans. Yes, the Saints are not fully stable at quarterback yet, but they play hard and are coached well. Kellen Moore made the most out of a terrible situation last year and New Orleans almost made the playoffs in the last two weeks of the regular season. Tyler Shough is a work in progress but proved to viewers he can win crucial games, especially in the division. That might be enough to squeak into the fourth conference seed if the defense and offensive talent around Shough keep improving.

NFC North: Minnesota Vikings, Chicago Bears

Kyler Murray (with ball) is back to full health and on a new, more competitive team. Thankfully, that means audiences don’t have to watch J.J. McCarthy or Max Brosmer anymore.

At first glance, the North seems the most competitive division in this conference. A closer look shows it’s a two team race. Green Bay is in serious trouble over the Micah Parsons trade and a regressing offense. Detroit’s defense is already banged up and a regular season game hasn’t been played yet. The Lions can’t beat teams by outscoring them with outrageous numbers every week. That leaves Minnesota and Chicago as the two competent teams.

The Vikings already have an elite defense thanks to coordinator Brian Flores. They also have a good special teams unit. What they needed was a quarterback who didn’t play blind, untalented or as the common civilian like J.J. McCarthy or Max Brosmer do. Minnesota signed Kyler Murray, Arizona’s former 2019 number one overall pick. Murray is debatably the best running/scrambling quarterback on an NFL roster. With Kyler Murray out of the west and with a more competent head coach in Kevin O’Connell, he could put up career best numbers this season. There is a lot of pressure on the Vikings to make a deep playoff run, and the players feel and want it. Minnesota could surprise many throughout the year.

Chicago’s Ben Johnson could have the last laugh on which teams face each other in the playoffs.

Then there is Chicago. The Bears had a whole lot of luck last season and were at least a DJ Moore catch away against Los Angeles from making the conference championship. A number of analysts believe the Bears will come back down to earth and have some regression. There are valid reasons: the pass rush and run defense look to be among the lower half of the league, and it doesn’t help that Chicago lost a good amount of talent in their secondary. Still, the offense should make progress and play consistently for all four quarters more than they did last season. Special teams and scheduling will be questioned each week. Since the Bears wound up first in the north last year, it will take a lot more skill to repeat as division champions. Chicago has more going for it than Green Bay and Detroit, and there isn’t another NFC team able to step up or close the gap even if the Bears are in a slump. A wildcard spot is just right in Johnson’s second season as head coach.

Total 2025-2026 regular and postseason NFC picks: 7-6